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23:12
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
UGA
DIESEL 1ST
UNG
GLD
▾
HIGH
Record crude, gasoline, diesel prices temporary.
McGlone argues the record-high prices in crude oil, gasoline, and diesel are temporary. Gasoline typically falls in the second half of the year as fuel blends switch, the US surplus of crude oil and fuels is reaching a record, the Western Hemisphere is becoming the price maker, and these petroleum markets are highly correlated and rarely stay up long. He sees the bigger risk as prices falling.
WTI SHORT
UGA SHORT
DIESEL SHORT
Natural gas collapse signals lower prices.
McGlone views natural gas as a key indicator for US heat and electricity costs, and notes the January natural gas futures price just fell to its lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and is down nearly 20% on the year. He says this points to lower energy prices and that natural gas led the way lower in 2023 and 2024.
UNG SHORT
Gold too expensive; sell precious metals.
McGlone turns bearish on precious metals. He says gold is facing very high interest rates, is at its highest level versus the T-bond index in 40 years, and has become too expensive. He has selling inclinations in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and thinks gold may be stuck in a range for years if Treasury bonds are the guide.
GLD SHORT
SILVER SHORT
PPLT SHORT
PALL SHORT
Bitcoin is stock puppet; expect lower.
McGlone calls bitcoin a 'stock puppet' that has shifted from a stud to a dud. He says bitcoin has only matched the S&P 500 on a performance basis since 2021, has unlimited supply, and that its glory days are over. He fully expects bitcoin to go lower, especially if the stock market does.
BTC SHORT
HIGH
21:57
Sep 04
Sep 04
MAGS 1ST
ZS
ADBE 1ST
ORCL 1ST
AMZN
▾
HIGH
AI trade funding fragility is concerning
She warns the AI trade is becoming more fragile as funding shifts from cash flow to debt and equity issuance; Magnificent 7 revenue is tied to two private companies with uncertain economics, so disclosures could disappoint.
MAGS AVOID
Zscaler benefits from AI security tailwind
AI is Zscaler's largest opportunity because enterprises fear AI model and agent vulnerabilities; cybersecurity spend is growing and Zscaler's zero trust platform differentiates by hiding assets and securing AI agents, supporting bullish fiscal 2027 growth.
ZS LONG
Adobe CEO choice disappoints Street
Adobe's internal CEO pick disappointed Wall Street; Dave Wadwani was seen as the stronger dynamic leader, and the board needs an overhaul.
ADBE AVOID
Oracle is top-five AI infrastructure play
Oracle is liked by Jefferies despite concerns about $130B debt, OpenAI concentration, and margin transition because it is among the top five AI infrastructure builders and Larry Ellison has navigated tech cycles well.
ORCL LONG
Prefer Amazon Google Microsoft over Oracle
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are the better-executing top three AI infrastructure stories; Oracle is top five but not top three.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
Airline rally unlikely to persist
Airlines face a jet fuel price overhang near highs and will struggle to recoup fuel costs in fall and winter; today's bounce is unlikely to persist.
S&P 500 Passenger Airline Sub-Index AVOID
Prefer Delta and United airlines
Within airlines, Delta has best-in-class premium pricing power and can recover up to half of rising jet fuel costs; United can do almost as well, while American ranks third and low-cost carriers have it harder.
DAL LONG
UAL LONG
Five percent Treasury entry is attractive
The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is an attractive entry point that has drawn demand from insurance companies, endowments and foundations wanting to lock in long-term yields.
TLT LONG
HIGH
21:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
UAL
TPR
DAL
RYAAY
SAVE
▾
HIGH
Loyalty programs drive airline profits.
Airlines are effectively banks because their loyalty programs and co-branded credit card economics now drive the bulk of airline profitability. Delta and United are doing incredibly well because of their loyalty portfolios, and airlines that lean into the rewards ecosystem are outperforming.
UAL LONG
DAL LONG
Tapestry sees accelerating new customer growth.
Within a broadly healthy American retail environment, Tapestry is continuing to see more new customer growth, helped by inventory management and marketing/social media-driven customer acquisition.
TPR LONG
Budget models diverge; Ryanair wins, Spirit fails.
The pure economy budget model does not work in the U.S., as shown by Spirit; Ryanair makes budget flying work in Europe only because it operates to third-tier airports that U.S. carriers lack, so the regional models diverge.
RYAAY LONG
SAVE AVOID
Amex premium ecosystem remains strong.
American Express is benefiting from premium card fee increases; even when some customers resist $900 annual fees, they switch to other Amex products like the Gold card and remain in the Amex family. The rewards ecosystem and interchange fees remain very lucrative for Amex.
AXP LONG
Ralph Lauren wins experience and tennis fashion.
Ralph Lauren is one of the specialty retailers doing the best job delivering an experiential destination to customers, with visible lines and traffic; it also benefits from tennis fashion and style trends at the U.S. Open, where its athlete/style sponsorship creates brand wins.
RL LONG
Walmart is a tech-driven retail winner.
Walmart has become a modern technology company, not just a traditional retailer; it captures all income levels, has global scale, and its biggest growth is now coming from higher-income consumers, making its premium multiple and continued relevance understandable.
WMT LONG
HIGH
21:03
Sep 04
Sep 04
TSN 1ST
SFD 1ST
JBS 1ST
LULU
ADBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Beef processors face Trump policy risk.
President Trump's executive order allowing ranchers to process their own beef targets major beef processors and aims to lower beef prices. Jeff Mason says Trump acknowledged he is taking on those companies and they are not going to like it, creating policy/regulatory risk for meat processors such as Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and JBS.
TSN AVOID
SFD AVOID
JBS AVOID
Lululemon turnaround delayed; competitive losses mounting.
Lululemon has multiple problems: execution missteps, weak product innovation, a 20% drop in leggings, changing athleisure styles, stiff competition from Alo, Vuori, Nike and Adidas, and soft China sales. The new CEO's turnaround is likely 9-12 months away, leaving the stock unattractive in the near term.
LULU AVOID
Adobe CEO transition adds uncertainty.
Adobe faces CEO transition uncertainty after the creative-division head was passed over and is leaving the company, while the stock was already under pressure from AI disruption fears and is down about 60% since the pandemic. The market is questioning the new leadership structure, keeping the stock vulnerable.
ADBE AVOID
Regulatory threat to Fair Isaac monopoly.
Fair Isaac Corp is under regulatory pressure after FHFA Director Bill Pulte renewed criticism over credit bureau overcharging and floated dismantling the FICO score monopoly, including possibly requiring only one credit agency. That threatens Fair Isaac's FICO licensing model.
FICO AVOID
HIGH
20:23
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
▾
MED
US controls Hormuz; oil flow risk remains
Trump describes the Iran conflict as a limited, intermittent military conflict rather than a war, but says the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz 'very strongly' and is 'taking out a lot of oil' and boats, keeping oil-supply and chokepoint risk a live market factor.
WTI WATCH
MED
20:14
Sep 04
Sep 04
US bond market
EWC
▾
HIGH
Rates should fall to 0.5-1%
Trump argues the Federal Reserve should cut rates aggressively, saying the current level near 4% is too high and rates should be around 0.5% to 1% as they were 25 to 30 years ago. He claims a rate hike would not reassure the bond market, implying lower rates would support bonds.
US bond market LONG
Canada vulnerable if US trade cut
Trump warns that if the US stopped trading with Canada, Canada would be in severe trouble because it depends on the US for roughly 95% of its business. He says a trade cutoff would wipe out that business and questions whether Canada could exist, making Canadian assets a trade-policy risk to monitor.
EWC WATCH
HIGH
20:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
AI Data Center Infrastructure
Auto supply chain
Live sports
Sports betting
▾
MED
AI data centers are U.S. growth driver.
The U.S. growth story is almost entirely driven by AI data center buildout over the past 18 months; outside of data centers the manufacturing and construction boom is not real. This makes AI data center infrastructure the core economic driver to watch.
AI Data Center Infrastructure WATCH
Canada tariffs hurt auto supply chain.
New U.S. tariffs on Canada will hit the auto supply chain, and the automotive sector already showed a sizable drop in employment last month, creating a negative tariff-driven setup for the auto supply chain.
Auto supply chain AVOID
Live sports and sports betting remain strong.
Live sports is one of the biggest and most durable entertainment areas, is insulated from AI disruption for some time, and is also one of the biggest betting markets; this supports continued investment demand in live sports and sports betting.
Live sports LONG
Sports betting LONG
MED
19:49
Sep 04
Sep 04
NKE
XRT 1ST
RL
▾
MED
Nike, Ralph Lauren win from tennis fashion
The U.S. Open has become a fashion-and-function showcase that creates style trends, and the brands visible on players benefit from that exposure. Ralph Lauren and Nike are specifically called out as winners capturing the tennis-driven sportswear moment.
NKE LONG
RL LONG
Stores remain relevant through experiential retail
Physical stores are not dead; they are becoming experiential venues through styling sessions, designer introductions, and event tie-ins like the U.S. Open. Each reason to visit creates incremental purchases, supporting brick-and-mortar retail.
XRT LONG
MED
19:34
Sep 04
Sep 04
American Retail
TPR 1ST
Brick-and-mortar retail
ROST
TJX
▾
HIGH
American retail doing nicely on inventory management
American retail is doing nicely, with companies managing inventory and using marketing and social marketing to drive new customer growth.
American Retail LONG
Tapestry, Ralph Lauren gaining new customers
Tapestry and Ralph Lauren are continuing to see more new customer growth, supported by marketing and social marketing.
TPR LONG
Physical stores more relevant than ever
Physical stores are not dying and are more relevant than ever, with companies reinvesting in stores and social interaction post-Covid driving demand for in-store experiences.
Brick-and-mortar retail LONG
Off-price store openings growing fastest
The fastest-growing store openings are coming from off-price retailers Ross Stores, TJX, and Burlington, and Walmart is remodeling nearly 600 stores a year, showing physical value/off-price retail expansion for lower-income consumers.
ROST LONG
TJX LONG
BURL LONG
WMT LONG
Zara strong; H&M still recovering
Zara is executing well in fast fashion while H&M is trying to get its groove back, with private competitors like Edikted also opening stores and keeping competition intense.
HM-B.ST WATCH
Tapestry, Ralph Lauren gaining new customers
Ralph Lauren, Zara, and Sephora are creating destination experiences through Ralph's Coffee lines, constant newness, and crowds, blending products and experience to drive store traffic.
RL LONG
Inditex (Zara) LONG
Ralph Lauren and Nike win US Open
The US Open has become fashion and function, with athlete style trends creating aspirational visibility, and Ralph Lauren and Nike are winners from that trend.
NKE LONG
HIGH
19:01
Sep 04
Sep 04
UAL 1ST
AXP 1ST
JPM 1ST
SAVE
RYAAY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Delta and United win via loyalty.
Airlines are effectively banks because their loyalty programs drive profits; Delta and United are performing exceptionally well due to their brand portfolios and loyalty businesses, even as mileage award prices inflate.
UAL LONG
Premium card fees boost Amex, Chase.
Credit card rewards and premium annual-fee products remain lucrative for issuers; Amex and Chase have raised fees, and even if some customers drop premium cards they stay within the same issuer family, such as Amex Gold, supporting issuer results.
AXP LONG
JPM LONG
Budget model fails US, works Europe.
The purely economy budget airline model does not work in the US because fuel and airport costs are high, as shown by Spirit; in Europe the budget model works because Ryanair can use cheaper third-rate airports.
SAVE AVOID
RYAAY LONG
Delta and United win via loyalty.
US airlines are increasingly adding premium, business, and first-class seats while tightening economy, and this premium shift is how carriers win; Delta is expanding premium seats, JetBlue is adding first class, and Frontier announced first class.
DAL LONG
JBLU LONG
ULCC LONG
HIGH
17:40
Sep 04
Sep 04
LULU
SIRI 1ST
SPY 1ST
QQQ 1ST
IWM FLIP
▾
HIGH
Lululemon turnaround likely long and painful
Lululemon is suffering from execution failures, weak product assortment and innovation, weak brand heat and store traffic; its core leggings business is down 20%, and it will take the incoming CEO at least 6-9 months to begin turning product around, with no improvement for at least 12 months.
LULU AVOID
SiriusXM advertising partnerships drive 50% upside
Deutsche Bank upgraded SiriusXM to buy because new advertising partnerships with YouTube and Amazon offer massive upside; the YouTube deal alone could generate $2 billion in annual revenue by 2029 and support a potential 50% stock surge.
SIRI LONG
Reduce equity exposure but not bearish
BNP Paribas's positioning indicator is above neutral but not extended, which argues for being less bullish on US equities and taking some chips off the table without turning outright bearish.
SPY AVOID
Prefer Nasdaq over rate-sensitive small caps
The market is bifurcated: the Nasdaq is tied to secular AI earnings and is less sensitive to Fed hikes, while small/mid caps are more leveraged and rate-sensitive; in current macro uncertainty this favors Nasdaq over the Russell.
QQQ LONG
IWM AVOID
Short two-year Treasuries on Fed hikes
The labor market is solid and near full employment, so the Fed can focus on inflation, which is still too high and broadening; Julia Coronado expects a September rate hike and 2-3 hikes over the next six months, not a one-and-done move.
2-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
Long volatility amid high macro uncertainty
Even with a subdued VIX, the market is entering a seasonally volatile period and shifting from idiosyncratic earnings catalysts to macro events such as CPI, FOMC and midterms; that can increase correlation and drive demand for protection, so volatility should pick up.
VIX LONG
Volkswagen restructuring progress supports shares
Volkswagen's supervisory board backing of a restructuring plan with 50,000 job cuts and a slimmer lineup is decisive progress on long-standing structural issues, supporting the rally and potentially more improvement ahead.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
HIGH
15:42
Sep 04
Sep 04
USD/CAD
▾
MED
Tariff shock priced, loonie range-bound.
What is not priced in is the growth hit to Canadian exporters in steel, aluminum, and autos. If that damage materializes, the Bank of Canada could get more room to cut rates than the Fed, widening the rate differential and potentially weakening the Canadian dollar. Watch the rate differential, not the tariff rhetoric.
USD/CAD WATCH
MED
15:10
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
FXY 1ST
XLY
COPPER
KBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equities still favored over bonds.
Despite 10-year Treasury yields around 4.7%, bonds have not yet reached a level that pulls capital out of equities and into fixed income. Earnings levels remain exceptional, so the allocation call is still more favorable to equities over bonds until yields become more competitive.
SPY LONG
Yen intervention working; yen strengthening.
Japanese intervention has been effective, driving dollar-yen from about 1.65 toward the mid-1.50s. Euro-yen and high-carry crosses such as peso-yen have also broken down, supporting continued yen strength even though the broad dollar call remains difficult.
FXY LONG
Cyclical weakness emerging in discretionary stocks.
Momentum is bleeding below the surface: 20-day lows are expanding and roughly 30% of the index has made a one-month low, with modest cyclical deterioration showing up in groups like consumer discretionary. The open question is whether this is normal pre-midterm seasonality or an emerging cyclical slowdown, so it deserves attention before chasing cyclicals.
XLY WATCH
Copper strength leads metals and resource stocks.
Resource-driven currencies are acting well, copper is making new highs, and copper stocks continue to act well. In the metals and macro complex, he ranks copper at the top and basic resource stocks next, with some additional support from gold.
COPPER LONG
Deregulation could unlock small-bank lending.
Small-bank deregulation is moving forward through regulatory and legislative efforts and can unlock more lending, helping smaller institutions compete nationally. She also sees support from administration efforts to reactivate midmarket manufacturing and small-business defense contracts.
KBE LONG
SanDisk cheap versus memory earnings power.
Memory pricing has been exceptionally strong, with DRAM and NAND up sharply, but memory stocks like SanDisk are trading at very cheap multiples because investors doubt earnings sustainability. He values SanDisk at roughly 11 times forward earnings versus a market around five times.
SNDK LONG
Bonds now more attractive than stocks.
The Treasury curve has become more attractive and the risk/reward has shifted in favor of bonds relative to stocks. From a valuation standpoint, bonds are more attractive than equities than they have been since the peak of the tech bubble, and the firm is telling clients to buy bonds.
TLT LONG
Healthcare overweight for defense and independent earnings.
NewEdge just added an overweight to health care because it is relatively defensive, not deeply embedded in the AI story, and has potential for independent earnings increases if AI political noise or broader market jitters grow.
XLV LONG
Risk assets can withstand rate hike.
Risk assets can withstand a 25-basis-point Fed hike because equities are driven more by strong earnings and the AI boom than by discount-rate moves, while credit quality is exceptionally strong and spreads are tight. The bigger issue is the inflation trajectory and the Fed's response to it.
Equities LONG
High-quality fixed income yields remain attractive.
Risk assets can withstand a 25-basis-point Fed hike because equities are driven more by strong earnings and the AI boom than by discount-rate moves, while credit quality is exceptionally strong and spreads are tight. The bigger issue is the inflation trajectory and the Fed's response to it.
LQD LONG
HIGH
14:22
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI 1ST
▾
MED
Crude prices expected to decrease
World markets currently expect crude prices to decrease over the next few months, implying near-term downside for oil prices.
WTI SHORT
MED
14:10
Sep 04
Sep 04
XLE
▾
MED
Energy shock drives inflation and Fed policy.
The energy shock is the marginal inflation change this year, passing through from headline inflation into core inflation. That pass-through has shifted the Federal Reserve debate from continued cuts at the start of the year toward possible hikes, making energy the key variable to monitor for inflation and Fed policy.
XLE WATCH
MED
14:08
Sep 04
Sep 04
SMH 1ST
8299.TW 1ST
TSM
▾
HIGH
Chip suppliers bullish on AI supercycle
Semiconductor suppliers at SEMICON Taiwan are showing extreme bullishness on a continued AI buildout, with some describing the current period as a multi-year supercycle.
SMH LONG
First year of ten-year supercycle
Phison, a maker of NAND flash controllers used in data centers, believes the industry is in the first year of a 10-year supercycle based on its projections and order book.
8299.TW LONG
TSMC chip tool demand doubled
TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor fab, says its need for chip-making tools has doubled since the end of last year, and demand is supported by Nvidia and other large customers continuing to order chips.
TSM LONG
HIGH
12:54
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY FLIP
QQQ 1ST
▾
MED
Hot jobs data pressures equities.
The August jobs report was strong across the board—payrolls above estimates, positive revisions, wage growth rebounding, and labor force participation rising—so good economic news is bad news for stocks because it keeps Federal Reserve rate-hike risk alive and pushes bond yields higher, with S&P 500 futures falling and Nasdaq trimming gains.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
MED
12:48
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
VTI
▾
HIGH
Stay invested in stocks through volatility.
Booth argues investors should stay invested in equities through volatility instead of panicking. He uses 2020 as an example: the market fell more than 20% in Q1 on pandemic fears, then rose about 50% over the next nine months, and long-term stocks return about 10% annually only for those who remain invested.
SPY LONG
Buy broad index funds, avoid active.
Sixty years of data show professional managers generally fail to beat the market, so ordinary investors can do as well as insiders by buying the broad market inexpensively through index funds instead of paying for active management.
VTI LONG
HIGH
12:48
Sep 04
Sep 04
AAPL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Apple lags in AI talent strategy.
Apple's real problem is software and AI, not hardware. It is losing its best AI talent to Meta and others, has no frontier model strategy, has no real agentic AI strategy beyond current products, and has nothing significant in robotics. The new hardware-engineer CEO must recruit the best AI talent and show AI deployment that cuts costs and accelerates revenue.
AAPL AVOID
HIGH
12:15
Sep 04
Sep 04
CIBR
▾
MED
AI cyber threats boost cybersecurity demand
Altman warns that AI models are about to completely change the cyber attack landscape, and says society will need advanced AI tools like Astra to defend against a coming wave of AI-enabled cyber threats. This supports demand for cybersecurity and AI-driven cyber defense capabilities.
CIBR LONG
MED
12:13
Sep 04
Sep 04
11:47
Sep 04
Sep 04
US Treasuries (belly to long end)
GLD
USD 1ST
LULU 1ST
IOT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long Treasury belly/long end for stagflation
If the economy shifts toward stagflation and the Fed starts hiking, Haefele wants to shift into the belly/long end of the Treasury curve because financial repression is likely to keep long-end yields artificially suppressed, creating an attractive entry for that trade.
US Treasuries (belly to long end) LONG
Gold as portfolio diversifier, off highs
Gold is being used as a portfolio diversifier and hedge by sophisticated clients because it is off its highs and offers protection in scenarios that markets have not seen, while reducing exposure to everything being an AI trade.
GLD LONG
Diversify away from dollar long term
A more hawkish Fed may help the dollar near term, but two hikes are already priced in; over the longer term, as the AI trade broadens globally and US inflation falls, clients should expect to diversify away from dollars.
USD AVOID
China weakness makes turnaround difficult
Lululemon cut its full-year outlook and its Chinese business is struggling, suggesting the ongoing turnaround is proving difficult; shares dropped more than 18% premarket.
LULU AVOID
Enterprise demand drives revenue guidance higher
Samsara, a provider of GPS services, raised its revenue guidance on strong demand from large enterprise customers, especially in transportation, driving shares up about 12%.
IOT LONG
FHFA overcharging scrutiny drags credit bureaus
Credit bureaus are under pressure after the Federal Housing Finance Agency director said the companies were overcharging Americans and that this will end soon, dragging Equifax and TransUnion premarket.
EFX AVOID
TRU AVOID
Restructuring cuts costs to compete with China
Volkswagen's sweeping restructuring plan adds 50,000 job cuts to the previously announced figure, bringing the total to about 100,000, or roughly 15% of the workforce, to lower costs and compete with Chinese manufacturers; shares rallied sharply though implementation details are still unresolved.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
Huawei chips cannot replace Nvidia training
DeepSeek's planned 160,000 Huawei accelerators will be used to operate data centers rather than to train models, so the order is less threatening than the headline suggests; training still requires Nvidia accelerators, and Nvidia still leads.
NVDA LONG
China lacks competitor to leading-edge equipment
China is behind on semiconductor equipment: there is no evidence that China has a viable competitor to Applied Materials' leading-edge materials or ASML's leading-edge tools, while China's AI capabilities are less behind.
AMAT LONG
ASML LONG
HIGH
11:37
Sep 04
Sep 04
VOLKSWAGEN FLIP
VGK
European autos
VOD 1ST
BTP 1ST
▾
HIGH
VW restructuring proves reform is possible
Volkswagen's supervisory board backed a sweeping restructuring with 50,000 additional job cuts and fewer models. The market is reacting because VW was previously seen as too hard to reform and there were fears of legal escalation; the approval creates hope that change is possible, though China and US tariff challenges remain.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
European data and policy are improving
Citi economic surprise indices continue to beat forecasts, earnings revisions are improving across a broad set of sectors, and PMI/manufacturing data are moving higher. Beata also argues EU policymakers are taking meaningful steps to protect European industries, supporting a more positive case for European equities.
VGK LONG
Long European domestic cyclicals over exporters/consumers
EU protectionism through tariffs and preferential procurement favors domestic industries. Beata says the worst is behind autos and chemicals, and from a cyclical perspective autumn is a good time for cyclicals. She argues investors should be long domestic European stocks and avoid internationally exposed exporters and consumer stocks, while being selective.
European autos LONG
European chemicals LONG
European domestic stocks LONG
European exporters AVOID
European consumer stocks AVOID
Goldman upgrade and streaming catalyst for Vodafone
Goldman Sachs upgraded Vodafone two notches from sell to buy after previously being bearish. Also, the FT reported Vodafone is looking through its Vodafone Three partnership to offer a TV/streaming package in the UK, following full control of Vodafone Three.
VOD LONG
Italy safer than France on fiscal position
French spreads are pricing political uncertainty because some parties have signaled they may burn or default on debt commitments. Italy, by contrast, has a primary surplus and is probably the safer European sovereign asset, creating a relative preference for Italy over France.
BTP LONG
OAT AVOID
German bunds may lose safe-haven status
Germany missed the rise of electrification, electric vehicles and batteries, and must undergo a painful restructuring of its economy. Its fiscal situation will worsen, so German bunds are not necessarily the safe asset in five years' time.
BUND AVOID
European defense spending keeps rising strongly
European defense spending is not facing fatigue. It rose more than 20% in 2024-25, is projected to rise another 10-15%, and EU average defense spending is moving from 2.2% toward 2.4% of GDP by 2026, supporting the European defense sector.
ITA LONG
Energy pressures European front-end government bonds
A Fed hold would temper the selloff in eurozone sovereign debt, but zooming out, gas and oil prices are the bigger force for European front-end and back-end yields. Energy is more important than the ECB for European front ends, so high gas prices should keep pressure on those bonds.
European front-end government bonds AVOID
Tariffs let European steelmakers capture higher prices
European carbon taxing and tariffs on imported steel have raised steel prices. Domestic European steelmakers that do not pay the tariff or carbon levy benefit from those higher prices, making steel a clear example of protectionism working in Europe's favor.
European steelmakers LONG
UK gilts under energy inflation pressure
Gilts are in the firing line because the UK has acute energy exposure and rising energy costs are being passed through to consumers. Combined with persistent food and energy inflation, this supports the view that bond-market stress and higher gilt yields are not over yet.
UKGILT AVOID
OpenAI's 100,000 GPUs support Nvidia
OpenAI's new GPT-6 Astra model trained on 100,000 GPUs, which suggests AI scaling laws continue and frontier models require more compute. That can be read as good news for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
Norway rotation favors credit over government bonds
Norway's sovereign wealth fund proposes reducing government debt from 70% to 50% of its bond portfolio, which could cut US Treasury holdings by about $80 billion and rotate into agency, mortgage and corporate bonds. The move signals reduced appetite for government debt and more demand for higher-yielding credit.
TLT AVOID
LQD LONG
Yen break below 155 could force capitulation
After a large yen move, the market is consolidating, but a break below 155 in USD/JPY could force more capitulation of an estimated ¥200 billion of yen shorts. The setup depends on the BOJ signaling more hikes; if the BOJ disappoints, short positions could return quickly.
FXY WATCH
Carrefour returns to India's large consumer market
Carrefour is returning to India after more than a decade with a flagship store in northern India, re-entering a huge consumer market. The stock is up about 15% year to date.
Carrefour LONG
European gas prices likely keep climbing
European TTF gas futures have marched to the highest level since early 2023, Asian LNG is at its highest since December 2022, and European storage is the lowest in at least a decade. As long as Europe cannot import enough LNG to refill inventories, prices are likely to keep rising; analysts estimate TTF may need to reach about €100/MWh by November from around €75 now to get storage to 75% full.
TTF LONG
HIGH
11:13
Sep 04
Sep 04
VT 1ST
SMH
EWJ
FXY
TLT
▾
HIGH
AI capex boom drives higher stock returns
Roubini says the drivers of higher bond yields are stronger capex and economic growth from the AI/technology investment boom; as long as that continues, it means stronger bond yields, higher economic growth, higher investment, and higher stock returns, and he is optimistic overall.
VT LONG
Real global tech investment boom continues
AI is only one of several future technologies including AI, robotics, semiconductors, space exploration, quantum computing, and fusion energy; each is subject to improvement because of AI, so capex growth and economic growth will continue over time even if corrections occur.
SMH LONG
Japan structural transformation supports medium-term upside
Japan is undergoing a structural economic transformation and is doing significant things in future technologies such as AI, robotics, quantum computing, and defense tech; Roubini is reasonably optimistic medium-term that potential growth in Japan will be stronger than in the past.
EWJ LONG
BOJ hikes support gradual yen strength
He expects the Bank of Japan to hike in September and probably October; with Japan's higher potential growth, the yen should strengthen gradually over the medium term rather than weaken further.
FXY LONG
Fiscal concerns could push bond yields higher
If global fiscal consolidation does not occur, bond yields could go higher; Treasury buybacks and Fed actions can only change a few basis points at the margin because the drivers are fiscal concerns and the capex boom, so yields are biased higher.
TLT SHORT
Low winter storage keeps European gas elevated
Europe will have enough gas supply this winter but only at a cost: storage buffers are low, so Europe must compete with Asia and other buyers for LNG; gas prices have already surged and are expected to rise further and remain elevated through winter.
UNG LONG
Volkswagen restructuring approved supports positive re-rating
Volkswagen's supervisory board approved a sweeping restructuring targeting a 9% margin by 2030, including 50,000 additional job cuts and about 50% fewer product portfolio models; unions and the state of Lower Saxony are on board, and markets are reacting positively though implementation is only beginning.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
Europe needs greater defense sector capability
Europe is surrounded by conflict and hybrid threats, and national defense policies cannot deter its enemies; Europe needs deeper defense integration and greater deterrence capacity, and the defense industrial sector is powerful and can be reinforced with economic interdependence.
IHI LONG
HIGH
09:07
Sep 04
Sep 04
TLT
Global sovereign bonds
SPY
ITA 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Capex boom drives bond yields higher
The rise in sovereign bond yields is driven mainly by a secular capex boom in AI, technology and defense/resilience spending, not by inflation expectations; fiscal concerns are secondary. Because the move reflects stronger growth and risk-on markets, yields can stay elevated and Fed or Treasury duration interventions should have only marginal effects.
TLT SHORT
Global sovereign bonds SHORT
US equities absorb higher bond yields
Roubini says the US is in a capex-driven investment boom and potential growth is now closer to 3% than 2%; U.S. equities have delivered double-digit returns and can absorb higher bond yields because rising yields are a signal of stronger growth and risk-on markets.
SPY LONG
Defense spending is rising investment theme
Roubini points to rising defense spending as another form of investment in resilience and security, part of the global capex boom that is driving higher yields and stronger growth; he says this defense funding is needed.
ITA LONG
Watch oil on Iran escalation risk
The Strait of Hormuz is only half open and there is a non-baseline tail risk of Israel-Iran escalation after the US midterms. Commodity, energy and food market impacts are limited for now, but another flare-up is a key geopolitical risk to monitor.
WTI WATCH
AI is secular growth, not bubble
Roubini rejects the idea that AI is a bubble; he sees it as a secular increase in capex and potential growth, though corrections could occur. The AI-driven investment boom is part of a real global investment cycle and should support productivity over time.
Artificial Intelligence LONG
Future technologies extend AI capex boom
Investors are too narrowly focused on AI; other future technologies such as wearable tech, semiconductors, biomedical research, defense tech, space exploration, quantum computing, fusion energy, fintech and new material science are also improving because of AI and will keep capex and economic growth going for years.
Wearable technology LONG
SMH LONG
Biomedical research LONG
Defense technology LONG
Space exploration LONG
QUBT LONG
Fusion energy LONG
FINTECH LONG
Material science LONG
Japan's structural tech transformation supports growth
Roubini is reasonably optimistic on Japan over the medium term because Japan is undergoing a structural economic transformation in future technologies including AI robotics, quantum computing and defense tech. He says Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are innovating more than other Asian economies, supporting stronger Japanese potential growth.
EWJ LONG
Yen likely strengthens over medium term
While wide US-Japan policy rate differentials can still push the yen weaker in the short term, Roubini expects the BOJ to hike in September and October and Japanese potential growth to improve, so over the medium term the yen should strengthen gradually rather than weaken further.
FXY LONG
HIGH
08:15
Sep 04
Sep 04
USD/JPY
TLT
LQD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen strength could force short capitulation.
After the sharp yen move, the market is taking stock but momentum could quickly resume. A move below the prior intervention lows and below 155 could force more capitulation because JPMorgan estimates around $100 billion of yen shorts remain and carry trades are already being unwound through the options market. The trade depends more on the BOJ than on US data.
USD/JPY WATCH
Norway shifts from Treasuries to corporate bonds.
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is looking to scale back its government-debt holdings, especially US Treasuries, and shift toward corporate bonds and other bond markets. The fund believes it can take on more risk while keeping the same liquidity, and there is a broader declining appetite for government bonds as investors seek more yield or equities.
TLT AVOID
LQD LONG
HIGH
08:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
INDA 1ST
Indian real estate
India 10-year government bonds
Indian rupee
US private credit
▾
HIGH
India's growth data is credible.
India's GDP data is credible because non-government high-frequency indicators such as auto sales, cement volumes, corporate earnings and CapEx are improving; services exports are growing double digits, commercial real estate and pre-sales are strong, and system credit growth of 15-16% supports roughly 7.5% growth, so India's above-trend expansion is likely to persist.
INDA LONG
Indian real estate cycle is healthy.
Indian real estate activity is genuinely strong: commercial real estate leasing is robust, residential pre-sales are doing well, and the Indian real estate cycle is currently playing out well, giving the property sector a domestic tailwind.
Indian real estate LONG
India bond yields likely headed lower.
The RBI does not need to raise rates despite above-trend growth because there is still slack in the economy and sticky inflation is not yet visible; with fiscal consolidation underway, India's 10-year yield at 6.8% is likely headed lower, making Indian duration attractive.
India 10-year government bonds LONG
Rupee stability funded by inflows.
Large foreign deposit inflows, around $136 billion, have bought the rupee stability for one and a half years or more, and with India's current account deficit staying small even if oil is at $100, the risk that the RBI has to hike rates to defend the currency is very low.
Indian rupee LONG
US private credit looks wobbly.
The US private credit market is looking very wobbly after a long period of unusually low interest rates; with the US 10-year yield already elevated and bond markets not responding to official attempts to dampen yields, sustained high rates are likely to cause financial accidents.
US private credit AVOID
Watch US 10-year threshold.
US 10-year yields are already elevated at 4.8%, and a 5% threshold would be quite worrying; with bond markets refusing to respond to the Treasury secretary and volatility likely, the US long end is an important risk setup to monitor for broader market stress.
US10Y WATCH
HIGH
08:01
Sep 04
Sep 04
India space sector
India private space sector
▾
MED
Successful launch supports India space sector growth.
India's successful GSLV launch after two SLV failures restores confidence that ISRO's rocket technology is sound and paves the way for more missions, supporting India's broader space-sector growth.
India space sector LONG
Success revives India private space participation.
The launch success removes an overhang on private-sector participation and global interest in India's space ecosystem, with many private missions planned and reusable rocket tests underway.
India private space sector LONG
MED
06:56
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO
DIESEL
▾
MED
Watch oil and diesel amid Hormuz risk.
Military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz appears to be easing, which is pressuring crude intraday, but oil flows remain below prewar levels and Brent is still heading for a weekly gain; she says to monitor energy prices, especially U.S. diesel, which remains at a four-year high.
BNO WATCH
DIESEL WATCH
MED
06:54
Sep 04
Sep 04
EWY FLIP
KWEB FLIP
Japanese Exporters
Japanese domestic demand stocks
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Asian tech gains on Fed hold bets
Asian stocks extended gains as investors pared Federal Reserve rate-hike bets after Christopher Waller's comments. Technology shares led because they are most sensitive to rates, with the KOSPI up more than 1% and Hong Kong tech stocks up more than 2%, while a weaker dollar also supported Asian currencies.
EWY LONG
KWEB LONG
Stronger yen favors Japan domestic demand
A stronger yen driven by Bank of Japan rate-hike bets and intervention wariness is hitting Japanese exporters, especially automakers, because dollar earnings translate into fewer yen. Domestic demand-driven stocks such as supermarkets, retailers and restaurants are gaining because a stronger yen is likely to boost local spending power.
Japanese Exporters AVOID
Japanese domestic demand stocks LONG
BOJ meeting shapes USD/JPY big move
The Bank of Japan's September meeting is a marquee event. Investors may not want to test pushing dollar-yen higher before it, but if the BOJ does not deliver a hike or guidance for another hike, investors will likely push dollar-yen back up toward 160. If the BOJ tone changes, the downside move could become disorderly.
USD/JPY WATCH
Brent rises on Iran risk premium
Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks and the absence of a peace deal are reviving a geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude. Brent is back in the 90s as fear emerges again, even though it is not yet at the 120 level seen in March when pipeline and refinery attacks were worse.
BNO LONG
European gas stays costly into winter
Europe is not facing immediate gas shortages, but storage at the lowest level in a decade means refilling before winter will be very expensive. EU gas prices are already more than double prewar levels and may need to reach triple prewar levels with Asia competing for LNG, keeping procurement costs high.
UNG LONG
HIGH
06:47
Sep 04
Sep 04
TLT
SFTBY 1ST
MiniMax
GCC 1ST
JPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Treasury volatility remains the new normal
Treasury market volatility is here to stay because the buyer base changed after 2022 from central banks to price-sensitive hedge funds and mutual funds, so bond-market volatility remains part of the game.
TLT WATCH
New OpenAI model lifts SoftBank
OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra marks a sea change, with scores about 10 points higher than Anthropic's last model. SoftBank is up almost 10% in response, showing market excitement around the new model and AI leadership.
SFTBY LONG
Saudi adoption validates MiniMax model
Saudi AI firm Human adopting China's MiniMax M3 model validates the open-weight AI thesis and opens a new Middle East-China cooperation vertical, making MiniMax worth watching.
MiniMax WATCH
GCC planned investment is rising strongly
Standard Chartered's proprietary survey shows GCC planned investment rising sharply: announced 2026 planned investment already matches all of 2025, actual investment is rising, and high-frequency indicators show consumption back to pre-conflict levels, supporting regional growth despite unrest.
GCC LONG
Yen appreciation is not a blip
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, and Japan's sovereign is shifting investments from advanced economies back into domestic markets. Because Japan holds massive foreign assets, this repatriation will likely support appreciation of the yen, and the yen strength is not a blip but a medium-term consequence.
JPY LONG
Hormuz supply risk keeps oil elevated
Oil prices are skewed to the upside because inventories must eventually be replenished, reserves are running at record lows, global oil demand growth should continue into year-end, and spare capacity is low.
BNO LONG
Rate-sensitive Korean tech leads Asia gains
Asian markets are gaining as investors pare bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, with rate-sensitive tech names like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix driving the gains.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Strong yen hurts Japanese exporters
The strong yen is hurting Japanese stocks, particularly exporters, with Topix underperforming the tech-heavy Nikkei 225.
TOPIX AVOID
HIGH
06:32
Sep 04
Sep 04
VGK 1ST
UNG 1ST
UKGILT 1ST
US bonds
IGOV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Europe faces macro headwind from energy.
Europe is the region most directly impacted by the Middle East energy supply strain because European gas storage is very low and diesel is a key part of the European fuel mix, creating a macro headwind for Europe.
VGK AVOID
European gas stays elevated on tight supply.
European natural gas is trading around eight times US gas, winter contracts are already near current elevated levels, and a cold winter after a warm summer could leave supplies tight, keeping European gas prices at risk of further upside.
UNG LONG
Gilts vulnerable on persistent inflation and energy.
Bond markets are selling off because growth is better and inflation is likely to be more persistent into 2027; UK gilts are especially vulnerable because the UK has acute energy exposure and costs are being passed on to consumers.
UKGILT SHORT
US bonds SHORT
IGOV SHORT
HIGH
06:27
Sep 04
Sep 04
VOLKSWAGEN
▾
HIGH
Volkswagen restructuring is at an inflection point.
Volkswagen's supervisory board approved a restructuring with 50,000 additional job cuts, a roughly 50% reduction in vehicle lineup, and targets of a 9% margin and 9 million unit sales by decade-end; unions received assurances of no compulsory redundancies or immediate factory closures, but the company is at an inflection point on whether these changes can succeed long term amid competitive deterioration and union pressure.
VOLKSWAGEN WATCH
HIGH
06:25
Sep 04
Sep 04
Euro area interest rates
Energy prices
▾
HIGH
ECB final hike then hold through 2027
Bloomberg survey economists expect the ECB to deliver a final 25-basis-point hike next week to a 2.5% deposit rate and then hold through 2027; that path is more dovish than current market pricing, implying the euro-area rate-hiking cycle is likely near its terminal point.
Euro area interest rates WATCH
Energy prices key to ECB inflation
The current euro-area inflation acceleration is mainly energy-price driven, with Middle East escalation adding upside risk to energy prices; core and services inflation actually eased, so energy prices are the key variable the ECB is watching for second-round effects and the rate path.
Energy prices WATCH
HIGH
06:14
Sep 04
Sep 04
JPY
Emerging market bonds
China bonds
India bonds
Thailand bonds
▾
HIGH
BOJ hike supports yen rally.
The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is lining up to be highly consequential; the market sees a high probability of a rate hike and guidance on follow-up hikes, and outside U.S. pressure is adding fuel to yen strength. He notes few traders will want to go against the yen rally in the next two weeks.
JPY LONG
Prefer EM bonds and short duration.
Emerging market bonds have been less volatile and stable, notably China, India and Thailand; in developed markets she would stay shorter duration to lock in yields, but would avoid the long end because investors are demanding a duration premium.
Emerging market bonds LONG
China bonds LONG
India bonds LONG
Thailand bonds LONG
Short-duration developed market bonds LONG
Long-end developed market bonds AVOID
AI infrastructure picks and shovels favored.
Her high-conviction AI call is the picks-and-shovels part of the value chain: data centers, memory and infrastructure. Memory has strong pricing power, data centers still need heavy investment, and infrastructure utilities are lagging and offer value.
AIQ LONG
Application layer starting to work.
The AI application layer is becoming investable as model pricing becomes more reasonable, partly due to China; Snowflake's numbers are an early indication this is starting to happen, though it is early days.
AI Application Software LONG
SNOW LONG
Korea/Taiwan chip plays attractive.
Korea is liked despite its run-up because the rally has been concentrated in two stocks; there is a broader corporate reform story, dividend payout is still half that of Australia and Singapore, and the market at around 12x earnings is attractive.
EWY LONG
Korea/Taiwan chip plays attractive.
Within Asian AI supply-chain plays, Korea and Taiwan stand out for chip-related pricing power; the opportunity remains narrow, roughly a three-stock story, but is still attractive.
EWT LONG
US equities positive on resilience.
She remains positive on the US overall because of economic resilience and because the US has been a beneficiary of the Iran war.
SPY LONG
Japan equities positive on reforms.
Japan is attractive due to the continuing corporate reform story, evidence of more share buybacks and an economy that is reviving; yen weakness is a concern but can be hedged.
EWJ LONG
Expect steady dollar weakening.
She expects continued steady dollar weakening; more central banks are looking at raising rates, the dollar has been very strong, and a softer dollar would be good for the US, the rest of the world, and emerging-market exposure.
DXY SHORT
India growth is credible and sustainable.
India's 7.8% GDP growth is credible and supported by high-frequency indicators such as auto sales, cement volumes, corporate earnings and corporate capex; 7.5% growth is doable if system credit growth stays around 15–16%.
India Equities LONG
Indian yields can head lower.
India's 10-year yield at around 6.8% is perhaps headed lower because the government is doing fiscal consolidation; the RBI does not need to hike to protect the currency or follow the Fed given large deposit inflows and economic slack.
SGB LONG
HIGH
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