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14:05
Sep 07
Sep 07
HOOD
NKE
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Robinhood can multiply on Trump inflows.
Radchenko is bullish on Robinhood. He notes the stock was around $104, had a buy-the-dip level there, and has since moved to $120 with likely further upside. He argues Robinhood is a Trump-favored company, is creating accounts for newborn Americans, is receiving large money inflows, and its network earned $8 million in fees on Friday alone. He says the company can still make multiples.
HOOD LONG
Nike bad news already priced.
Radchenko presents Nike as a medium-term idea. He notes Nike has fallen sharply and is the worst performer in the S&P 500, and news came out Friday that it is being removed from the S&P 100. His view is that the bad news is already priced in, creating a contrarian medium-term opportunity.
NKE LONG
AI corrections offer medium-term entries.
Radchenko says many AI-sector names are in corrections of 20-30% and that this is a good period to enter medium-term trades in the AI sector. He frames autumn as the most active US trading season and says they monitor these setups.
XLK LONG
HIGH
05:43
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO 1ST
SJT 1ST
UNG 1ST
HYPE 1ST
TSN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brent to $95 by November
Oleg expects Brent to reach $95 by November, with attempts to spike much higher toward March highs before the US elections. He argues Iran currently has the initiative, the US is not in a strong regional position, and low SPR plus Hormuz risk support higher oil.
BNO LONG
SJT gas royalties with monthly payouts
Oleg likes SJT as a natural-gas proxy because it owns or manages Texas gas hubs and infrastructure, pays monthly distributions, and has a history of sharp moves in gas-driven setups like 2022. If gas catches up into heating season, SJT can reprice strongly.
SJT LONG
Natural gas could spike into heating season
Natural gas looks interesting because it has lagged oil, heating season is approaching, and gas can move 200-300%. Oleg notes the US gas market is controlled by a few large players, while European physical balances at the Dutch hub are worse, so a broad commodity upswing could ignite gas.
UNG LONG
HYPE to $100 by elections
Oleg predicts HYPE could reach $100 or more before the elections. He frames it as a hot crypto/hype bet rather than a deeply supported valuation call.
HYPE LONG
Tyson benefits from food inflation
Gosha highlights Tyson Foods from Goldman's autumn focus list with a $77 target. It is one of the largest US meat producers and acts as an inflation and food-price hedge if global food inflation accelerates.
TSN LONG
Viking Holdings defensive cruise idea
Gosha likes Viking Holdings from Goldman's list as a cruise-line name trading around the 48 level. It is not expensive on current metrics, moves differently from the broad market, and should fall less or hold up better in a market decline.
VIK LONG
Nextracker solar rebound with high target
Gosha highlights Nextracker from Goldman's list. The solar electrical-equipment maker has sold off sharply, and Goldman has a very high target around $140, making it attractive on both the chart and fundamentals.
NXT LONG
Tempus AI platform undervalued by market
Gosha likes Tempus AI, which Goldman targets around $80. The market currently values it only as a data-component supplier, but it is actually a platform with future margin expansion, FDA-cleared software, and the Personalis acquisition, so it should re-rate as a healthcare-AI platform.
TEM LONG
AI capex may not pay off
Anatoly argues open-source models are collapsing token prices, and token consumption will not grow fast enough to preserve revenue. Therefore the debt-funded AI capex boom at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta may never pay off, pressuring their economics and valuations.
MSFT AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
AMZN AVOID
META AVOID
Oil and gas equities safe long-term
Anatoly argues that holding oil and gas producers and processors is a sound long-term trade. Warren Buffett accumulated Occidental Petroleum for years, and investors are unlikely to get poorer owning oil and gas companies even if oil prices stay high.
XLE LONG
S&P risks priced, upside if calm
Gosha notes bearish positioning signals such as record retail participation and low cash, but also high short interest in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. He thinks part of the risk is already priced, and if risks do not materialize the market can move higher.
QQQ WATCH
SPY WATCH
FOMC decides market drop or bitcoin rally
Anatoly sets up the September FOMC as the key catalyst: if the Fed hikes, he expects a 10% market drop and liquidation of the crowded AI trade. If there is no hike, he sees Bitcoin potentially at 100,000 and the market moving higher.
BTC WATCH
Gold is good protective trade
Anatoly says gold is also a good protective trade in the current environment of conflicting risks.
GLD LONG
Oil downside limited, upside high
Anatoly says he is positioned long oil because it has very limited downside and potentially very high upside. Middle East escalation, possible new QE or dollar weakness, and Hormuz Strait supply threats all create an asymmetric risk-reward.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:37
Aug 27
Aug 27
SPY 1ST
AMZN 1ST
PLTR 1ST
CRM 1ST
NKE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Осторожно с S&P 500 до выборов.
В годы промежуточных выборов в США S&P 500 исторически давал просадки на 10-15% с августа по ноябрь; сильный отчёт Nvidia и инфляция в пределах ожиданий не смогли разогнать рынок, поэтому стоит пересмотреть портфели и прикрыть часть позиций.
SPY AVOID
Amazon: AWS рост, поддержка 250.
Amazon был куплен около 260, AWS сильно растёт, есть партнёрство с Nvidia по закупкам чипов, и нет предпосылок для замедления облачного бизнеса; уровень 250 выглядит сильной поддержкой для добавления.
AMZN LONG
Palantir лучше как enterprise AI.
Palantir нравится больше Anthropic как AI-ставка: он дешевле, лучше работает с корпоративными данными и имеет проприетарный инфраструктурный продукт. Обсуждался также технический брейкаут к 200.
PLTR LONG
CRM на 250 непривлекателен.
CRM/Salesforce после сильного восстановления не выглядит привлекательной для входа по 250: компания остаётся относительно дёшевой, но график указывает на возможную дистрибуцию и риск снижения.
CRM AVOID
Nike дёшев возле исторического дна.
Nike торгуется у исторических минимумов, выручка практически не просела, количество акций снижается, есть крупные инсайдерские покупки, включая Тима Кука. При одном сильном квартале возможен гэп вверх на 20-40%.
NKE LONG
Illumina/PacBio на тренде ДНК-тестов.
Персонализированные вакцины Moderna потребуют массовых ДНК-тестов, что выгодно Illumina как масштабному лидеру и PacBio как высокорисковому апсайду. Идея долгосрочная, но по Illumina лучше ждать коррекцию к 160-200, а PacBio может дать X5 или обанкротиться.
ILMN WATCH
PACB WATCH
Rocket Lab коррекция — точка входа.
Rocket Lab находится в зоне 60-65, из которой ранее трижды росла; космический моментум сохраняется, и покупка на коррекции к 5.50 дала бы почти 30% от текущих уровней.
RKLB WATCH
Qualcomm — слабая долгосрочная инвестиция.
Qualcomm как долгосрочная инвестиция исторически не давала дохода: с 2014 по 2026 инвестор практически ничего не заработал. Текущие всплески — это моментум-эйфория, а не устойчивое качество, в отличие от Broadcom.
QCOM AVOID
Uber: AI снизит издержки.
Uber генерирует большой денежный поток, а AI может заменить большие издержки на людей, юристов и регуляторные риски, что улучшит маржинальность; подходит как долгосрочная пенсионная позиция.
UBER LONG
Лонг нефть из-за геополитики Ирана.
Геополитический риск конфликта с Ираном и Ближним Востоком перед выборами создаёт лучший асимметричный risk/reward в длинной нефти. Заходить можно через BNO, USO, Brent, рефайнеров, трубопроводы и Occidental; при эскалации нефть отскочит, а Nasdaq может скорректироваться.
BNO LONG
OXY LONG
USO LONG
Аграрный ETF разворачивается вверх.
Аграрный ETF MOO и производители агрокультур выглядят технически готовыми к продолжению роста на фоне дефицита продовольствия и роста цен на энергоносители.
MOO LONG
Neoclouds растут на спросе Nvidia.
Отчёт Nvidia подтверждает спрос на неоклауды: у Nvidia растёт сегмент AI Cloud/Enterprise, и больше половины выручки скоро будет приходиться не на гиперскейлеров, а на Nebius, CoreWeave и аналогичные компании. Поэтому Nebius и CoreWeave можно держать/покупать в текущем диапазоне, хотя волатильность высокая.
CRWV LONG
NBIS LONG
Bitcoin поддерживают QE и ETF-притоки.
Ожидания удержания ставок ФРС, будущего QE и интервенций на валютном рынке создают глобальный драйвер для роста Bitcoin; ETF-притоки в Bitcoin/Ethereum продолжаются.
BTC LONG
BABA: инсайдеры активно покупают.
Alibaba обсуждается как среднесрочная идея на фоне крупных инсайдерских покупок директоров, включая Джека Ма, и низкой оценки; инсайдерская активность даёт сигнал к развороту.
BABA LONG
Nvidia: лонг от 208-214.
Зона 208-214 по Nvidia была проторговкой с максимальными объёмами августа и сильной поддержкой, откуда отчёт вызвал рост; это классическая зона для лонга, хотя автор лично в сделку не заходил.
NVDA LONG
Oracle дёшев относительно AI-потенциала.
Oracle выглядит хорошей сделкой в AI-теме: цена около 140 приемлемая, тогда как при реализации AI-спроса компания должна стоить ближе к 280. Это более надёжная ставка, чем многие моментум-акции.
ORCL LONG
HIGH
06:26
Aug 21
Aug 21
NVDA 1ST
USD 1ST
TLT 1ST
QQQ
BTC
▾
HIGH
Nvidia underowned and cheap.
Nvidia is underowned by hedge funds and still cheap on multiples, so after profit-taking in private AI names like SpaceX or Anthropic, institutional money can rotate back into Nvidia and buy it.
NVDA LONG
Gold and platinum up on falling dollar.
Gold and platinum are rising sharply as the US dollar falls; the Treasury long-end buyback is not true QE and does not create new money, so hard assets benefit from dollar debasement.
USD AVOID
PPLT LONG
GLD LONG
Treasury buyback not QE; avoid TLT.
The Treasury long-end buyback is only a rotation from bills into long bonds, not Fed QE, so no new money enters the system; TLT is near all-time lows and the attempted support is not working, making long Treasuries unattractive.
TLT AVOID
Nasdaq faces weak late-August seasonality.
Late-August seasonality is historically weak for equities, and the Nasdaq is unlikely to push higher in the short term while participants are on vacation.
QQQ WATCH
Bitcoin momentum above 67-70.
Bitcoin is not starting a new uptrend because systematic buyers are absent: Saylor is not accumulating while MSTR trades near NAV, ETF flows are constrained by high rates, and price is 20% above the lower accumulation zone.
BTC WATCH
Ethereum preferred: staking and undervaluation.
Ethereum is preferred over Bitcoin this cycle because it lacks a large holder overhang like Saylor's BTC position, has roadmap catalysts such as privacy and agent payments, is relatively undervalued versus Bitcoin, and offers staking yield.
ETH LONG
Circle looks cheap after bank license.
Circle looks interesting among crypto equities because it received a banking license and has not re-rated much, leaving a mismatch between price and the value of its business.
USDC WATCH
Coinbase, Robinhood, Binance win perp shift.
Trump's 'hyperliquid' comment is really about bringing perpetual futures trading to US-aligned platforms, not Hyperliquid itself because KYC makes direct migration impossible; speculative volume shifting onshore benefits Coinbase, Robinhood and Binance/BNB.
HOOD LONG
BNB LONG
COIN LONG
Twist Bioscience AI-bio partner.
Twist Bioscience has a strong chart and is positioned as an AI-bio partner through Anthropic and Moderna-related research.
TWST LONG
Biotech sector can continue higher.
Biotech is attractive after large-cap leadership; XBI is near its 2021 all-time high and narratives like Moderna's cancer vaccine could push the sector higher despite 10-20% pullbacks.
IBB LONG
XBI LONG
Moderna personalized cancer vaccine breakthrough.
Moderna's Phase 3 personalized mRNA cancer vaccine is one of the first successful individualized cancer vaccine precedents, using AI-enabled research and validating the platform.
MRNA LONG
Halozyme undervalued with buybacks and royalties.
Halozyme has revenue growing around 23%, profit margins near 25%, shrinking share count, royalty income, and a falling forward P/E despite price appreciation; DCF fair value is near 160 versus 106.
HALO LONG
Nebius offering overreaction; mean reversion higher.
Nebius sold off on an offering that was not dilutive to existing holders; the prior massive one-day move was an overreaction, and the stock should mean-revert toward 240-250 from around 215.
NBIS LONG
No reason to buy MSTR here.
MicroStrategy is unattractive because its market cap is near one times net asset value, removing accretive issuance, STRK trades at a discount, and Saylor needs a crypto rally or buyback support to fund the model.
MSTR AVOID
Avoid average private-equity funds like RVI.
Broad listed private-equity funds like Robinhood's RVI produce average results; only concentrated private-equity bets work, so average PE funds are a poor strategy.
RVI AVOID
Exelixis approved oncology with growing EPS.
Exelixis has stable revenue, growing EPS, falling share count, approved oncology drugs for kidney, liver and thyroid cancers, and an attractive chart after breaking and retesting 50.
EXEL LONG
Incyte cheap with high margin growth.
Incyte is cheap at 14-16x earnings with stable revenue from Jakafi, rising EPS, buybacks, 30% operating margin, about 30% sales growth, and DCF value near 140-150.
INCY LONG
Buy Alibaba for Chinese AI revival.
The Chinese market is reviving through domestic AI IPOs and open-source AI; in the AI arms race investors should own both US proprietary and Chinese open-source exposure, with Alibaba as the main liquid proxy.
BABA LONG
FXI LONG
CoreWeave overextended; short for range downside.
CoreWeave went parabolic from 60 to 120, made a fake breakout that closed, and looks vulnerable to return to the 69-70 range if the market stays weak; momentum is poor.
CRWV AVOID
HIGH
05:26
Aug 14
Aug 14
NBIS 1ST
CRWV 1ST
ALTCOINS 1ST
COHR 1ST
HOOD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy AI compute pullbacks, Burry wrong.
Nebius sold out compute capacity into 2027 and is reaching 40% EBITDA margins, while CoreWeave's inference contracts grew 100x in a quarter. The AI compute build-out is translating into real revenue and profitability, so Burry's depreciation/bubble short is unconvincing. Both names are volatile but can be bought on 30-50% pullbacks for new highs by year-end.
NBIS LONG
CRWV LONG
Avoid altcoins, rotate to US.
Retail crypto and altcoin flows are exhausted, money is not coming back near term, volatility is compressed and the market is choppy. Traders should rotate to US equities where opportunities are better.
ALTCOINS AVOID
Buy AI chip/photonics strength.
Photonics and AI chip names like Marvell and Coherent are showing strong relative volume and post-earnings recovery. The AI sector has real demand for memory and chips, and pullbacks of 25-30% in good companies are buying opportunities.
COHR LONG
MRVL LONG
Robinhood tokenization underrated, huge upside.
Robinhood's tokenization/blockchain strategy is underestimated and could overtake established blockchains for tokenized art, real estate and other real-world assets. Its young user base is growing and crypto transaction activity is rising 73% while other exchanges shrink, and the stock could grow 10x.
HOOD LONG
Dell relative strength, wait for breakout.
Dell held up well in the July-August decline and has relative strength, but the current chart does not look like a breakout yet. It may pull back before the next report in autumn, so it is a watch-not-chase setup.
DELL WATCH
Biotech multi-year breakout starting.
The XBI biotech index is breaking out from a multi-year base/multiple bottom. Biotech is growing despite high rates, go-to-market strategies have improved, and the sector is underfollowed with long accumulation.
XBI LONG
Cogent consolidation, next leg higher.
Cogent Biosciences is in phase 2 with plenty of cash. After a multi-month consolidation following a gap, the next phase could reprice it toward 100-130, or it could be acquired around 80-90.
COGT LONG
Broad index uptrend supported by fundamentals.
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs with record trailing profits, record forward earnings, record capex and low index volatility. The AI/memory complex still has fundamental support, so the market is not signalling a crisis despite individual stock volatility.
^GSPC LONG
Second launch monopoly, multi-year winner.
RocketLab is the second company capable of commercial launches after SpaceX. With a much smaller market cap and growing niche launch demand, plus future Starlink B2C and orbital data-center themes, it is a 5-10 year space infrastructure winner.
RKLB LONG
AbCellera base breakout with volume.
AbCellera is emerging from a long base with rising volume and possible partnership news. It is still near zero relative to its former high, making it an interesting biotech breakout candidate.
ABCL LONG
Cloudflare strongest relative strength setup.
Cloudflare showed exceptional relative strength during the August semiconductor/AI drawdown, staying in the screener and not really falling, and has now broken higher, making it one of the strongest software/cybersecurity setups.
NET LONG
SpaceX squeeze and AI upside.
SpaceX has a bullish setup from short covering, Grok 4.6 strength, and its AI/data/rocket ecosystem. The market underestimates future B2C Starlink and orbital infrastructure, so the stock can head to 300-500.
SPCX LONG
Best HBM leader, Nvidia's partner.
SK Hynix is the most advanced HBM memory maker and exclusive partner to Nvidia. HBM is hard to replace, Chinese competitors mostly make simpler DRAM, and the chart shows a double bottom with gap close and leadership. It is also cheaper than peers on fundamentals.
000660.KS LONG
Netflix underpriced, buybacks, pricing power.
Netflix has stable subscription cash flow, pricing power, buybacks of about 20% per year, a $30M Warner breakup fee that can fund buybacks, and AI personalization. It has not participated as much as Mag7 peers and could move toward 96.
NFLX LONG
HIGH
05:55
Aug 07
Aug 07
SPCX 1ST
RKLB 1ST
ORCL 1ST
SMH
SKYY
▾
HIGH
SpaceX lockup setup favors short covering.
SpaceX has almost no borrowable shorts after heavy retail hedging; when lockup ends, market makers and early investors must buy to cover shorts, and recent IPO data show longs are more likely around lockup expiry. With the stock near 110 versus a volume-weighted IPO average near 165 and known negatives already priced, longs are more attractive than shorts.
SPCX LONG
Rocket Lab scarce launch upside to 100.
Rocket Lab is one of only two companies capable of orbital launch, but is far smaller than SpaceX. He calls it one of his best high-risk ideas: price around 75, target 100, with the next report on October 10; the scarcity of launch alternatives supports the upside.
RKLB LONG
Oracle AI infrastructure demand makes it attractive.
Oracle stopped falling on negative news about data-center delays, a sign sellers were exhausted. Oracle builds infrastructure for OpenAI, and Microsoft Azure growth of about 80% including AI suggests OpenAI drives a large share of cloud revenue, so Oracle's debt-funded data centers should get paid. Larry Ellison's backing and already-priced negativity make Oracle a good medium/long-term investment.
ORCL LONG
Semis cautious; buy dip near 180.
Semiconductors are unattractive to buy right now because the market is selling capex-heavy AI stories even though the AI capex thesis is intact. He has exited most chips and would start a partial position around 180 if the sector pulls back there before the August 12 report, expecting a possible capex/offering scare.
SMH WATCH
Cloud companies attractive after earnings.
He likes cloud companies because they are the other side of AI infrastructure demand, but would wait until after their earnings before buying; until then it is a watch/setup rather than an active long.
SKYY WATCH
Banks benefit from steep curve, AI capex.
Banks should be long-term beneficiaries of the current cycle because the steep yield curve allows them to borrow short cheaply and lend long to finance the massive AI/datacenter capex of the largest US companies. This large investment flow also reduces bad-loan risk and stabilizes the financial system.
KBE LONG
Avoid nuclear/clean energy until rates ease.
Nuclear, hydrogen, and clean energy should be avoided for now: they are capital-intensive and debt-heavy, high rates make them unattractive, earnings confirm there is little revenue, and volumes have left the sector. It is a long-term theme but too early to own.
URA AVOID
ICLN AVOID
XLE AVOID
Ethereum preferred over Bitcoin now.
Crypto has been forgotten and may rotate back; he prefers Ethereum over Bitcoin because Ethereum has a development roadmap, resistance fixes, privacy upgrades, and staking, while Bitcoin has notable vulnerability/treasury concentration. He bought around 1,700 and recommends holding Ethereum.
ETH LONG
Buy WDC flush for rebound to 440.
Western Digital gapped below a clear 438-440 level after its report and flushed to 410-409; these liquidation moves offer a buying opportunity because price should at least return to the broken level, with a further target near 560.
WDC LONG
HIGH
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