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15:38
Apr 09
@humacapital
Instead of using LLMs to argue in favor of your trade theses, use them to attack them from all sides. Either you find out things you missed…
11:27
Apr 06
@humacapital
Markets are incredible ecosystems for memetic evolution. They enforce both truth-seeking and measured risk-taking; precisely what the world…
15:52
Apr 03
@humacapital
@0xkyle__ It’s the perfect drug for workaholics. You feel productive even though what you’re building most likely has zero (or negative) imp…
17:56
Mar 30
@humacapital
@john_j_brown Not if you know how to use it correctly, which admittedly almost no one does today. AI should/will allow us to focus more on …
12:08
Mar 30
@humacapital
After more thinking and talking with others, came to the conclusion that the above is wrong. Going back to a full petrodollar system is not…
GLD
HIGH
13:27
Mar 27
@humacapital
Was waiting for this specific news to double down on this trade, so here we go. https://t.co/gWCM08IRgw
TSLA
HIGH
12:11
Mar 26
@humacapital
@pendulumsinker Thanks, good counterpoint.
11:30
Mar 26
@humacapital
Believe that the US winning this war will be bearish gold. Not only would it strengthen the US and weaken the Eastern power bloc (who have …
GLD
MED
09:38
Mar 23
@humacapital
The scrambling for liquidity is intensifying. If we end up getting a massive panic-driven sell-off, there will be great opportunities to bu…
21:14
Mar 22
@humacapital
@KobeissiLetter No
13:54
Mar 20
@humacapital
Closing this for a small gain. Main thesis stands but don't have a favorable outlook on equities for the rest of the year, and this was an u…
SPY
MED
10:26
Mar 20
@humacapital
In the end the tech will just get integrated into tradfi without any crypto token benefiting, as is already happening with stablecoins, RWA,…
09:41
Mar 20
@humacapital
Looks like markets are still very complacent. If the war were to stop today, the 2nd order effects would be felt for months at the least. …
SPY
MED
11:47
Mar 19
@humacapital
Markets looking like they're scrambling for liquidity: equities, commodities, bonds, crypto - all down. In a true risk-off scenario, everyt…
11:12
Mar 09
@humacapital
@0xbidibidibum For the past 1-2 decades the EV of thinking that nothing ever happens was very high, but this trend has started reversing in …
11:05
Mar 09
@humacapital
EV of 'nothing ever happens' has topped.
15:54
Mar 04
@humacapital
@0x_Kun Would argue that this can also be seen as a feature instead of a bug, especially relative to the organizational size of the holder i…
11:55
Mar 03
@humacapital
@0x_Kun @notthreadguy Getting scammed by a money doubler in Runescape is the lesson of a lifetime.
08:01
Feb 23
@humacapital
The biggest risk to physical AI is a human equipped with digital AI. A displaced white-collar worker, retrained as blue-collar worker aided…
META
MED
14:55
Feb 17
@humacapital
Opened a long-term AAPL/TSLA pair trade. Am bearish TSLA for rest of this year, and AAPL looks like one of the few decent long legs current…
22:17
Feb 05
@humacapital
Bought a long term bag of MOH here after it dumped 30% on bad earnings. They have solid fundamentals and should trade significantly higher …
20:50
Feb 04
@humacapital
Out at BE, too strong for the time being.
13:53
Feb 02
@humacapital
Also note how the Ray Dalio thesis has become common normie knowledge.
13:50
Feb 02
@humacapital
Believe this latest gold bubble was a top for the big debasement narrative for the foreseeable future. Global bond yields (ex Japan) are st…
14:09
Feb 01
@humacapital
Believe both of these are set to meaningfully mean-revert over the coming years. https://t.co/avs5yJEMbb
09:44
Feb 01
@humacapital
Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.
17:20
Jan 31
@humacapital
Around 70-72k will provide a high R/R opportunity to long if/when we get it. It's a level with significant importance, on par with 100k. He…
10:03
Jan 30
@humacapital
So Warsh wants to do QT over the long run, thus strengthening the USD. Trump wants weaker USD. What if he simply counters Warsh by enforcin…
22:17
Jan 29
@humacapital
PvP who can get the weakest currency https://t.co/eOObYzO6d7
20:36
Jan 29
@humacapital
One of Trump’s main goals this term has been to reshore manufacturing, and for that he needs to significantly devalue the dollar. Against o…
21:40
Jan 27
@humacapital
One of my exit signals is if/when we get a panic in US Treasuries. Eg sell-off in USTs leads to cascade > panic causes more selling >…
21:16
Jan 27
@humacapital
Sometimes all you need to do is sit on your hands and let your winners run. https://t.co/EPzAAkTGoc
20:21
Jan 25
@humacapital
Historically, 3k has been a pivotal level for ETH. Breakout above 3k = proceed to 4k. Breakdown below 3k = proceed to 2k.
15:26
Dec 19
@humacapital
Reasoning for assigning 90% odds of winning to Democrats: - Democrats only need to gain 5 seats to win the House. - Historically (since WW…
15:01
Dec 19
@humacapital
Towards the end of next year, we will have midterm elections. It is very likely (imo 90%) that Dems will win the House. Historically, durin…
SPY
15:19
Dec 16
@humacapital
Who is Kevin Warsh? - Latest favorite on Polymarket for next Fed chair at 45%. - Nominated Fed governor by Bush in early 2006 at age 35; yo…
13:47
Dec 12
@humacapital
Gold getting ready for a potential breakout to new ATH following this week's FOMC. Zooming out, price action since the recent parabolic run…
GOLD
21:22
Dec 10
@humacapital
Closed at a loss. Hoped for this to be the catalyst that could lead to a 100k retest but alas.
20:16
Dec 10
@humacapital
Decent FOMC, riding BTC and HYPE
12:34
Nov 26
@humacapital
The Bitcoin bear market will continue until there are clear signs of AI progress slowing down. Until then, the marginal dollar prefers bett…
BTC
13:36
Nov 17
@humacapital
Closed crypto longs and re-shorted equities.
SPY BTC