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UNP FY2026 Q1 IMPROVING

Union Pacific Corporation earnings call

Apr 23, 2026 · 04:45 ET EricJennifer HeymanJim Venna
Buzzberg read

Union Pacific affirms 2026 outlook and long-term EPS CAGR target

Union Pacific reported record Q1 results with operating ratio improvement and strong free cash flow. Management affirmed 2026 guidance and long-term EPS CAGR target, emphasizing operational excellence and capacity headroom. The call also focused on the pending Norfolk Southern merger, with executives expressing high conviction and pushing back against competitor demands for concessions. Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).

Buzzberg read Union Pacific affirms 2026 outlook and long-term EPS CAGR target Union Pacific reported record Q1 results with operating ratio improvement and strong free cash flow. Management affirmed 2026 guidance and long-term EPS CAGR target, emphasizing operational excellence and capacity headroom. The call also focused on the pending Norfolk Southern merger, with executives expressing high conviction and pushing back against competitor demands for concessions. Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps). Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Union Pacific reported record Q1 results with operating ratio improvement and strong free cash flow. Management affirmed 2026 guidance and long-term EPS CAGR target, emphasizing operational excellence and capacity headroom. The call also focused on the pending Norfolk Southern merger, with executives expressing high conviction and pushing back against competitor demands for concessions. Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).

  • Affirmed 2026 outlook: mid-single-digit EPS growth, OR improvement; long-term high single-digit to low double-digit CAGR through 2027 reaffirmed.
  • Significant capacity slack: operating with 100+ fewer locomotives and 24% fewer trains than 2019 at higher volumes, enabling low-cost volume growth.
  • Key customer wins: BMW, new grain facilities in Mexico, and the Golden Triangle Polymers JV (CP Chem) starting in Q3 2026.
Revenue $6.217B +2% QoQ
EPS $2.93 +2% QoQ
Gross margin 45.21% reported
Op margin 39.36% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Guidance

Union Pacific affirms 2026 outlook and long-term EPS CAGR target

Guidance tone

02
M&A

Merger application on track for April 30 resubmission

Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).

03
Costs

Fuel costs are a Q2 headwind but OR improvement still expected

Affirmed 2026 outlook: mid-single-digit EPS growth, OR improvement; long-term high single-digit to low double-digit CAGR through 2027 reaffirmed.

04
Capacity

Network has latent capacity for volume growth

Significant capacity slack: operating with 100+ fewer locomotives and 24% fewer trains than 2019 at higher volumes, enabling low-cost volume growth.

AI, capex & demand read

AI

Platform & monetization

Management discussed the use of AI in operations, including AI-informed dispatching and terminal optimization, and noted that AI tools are being embedded across the company to improve service, efficiency, and decision-making, with several major AI projects underway.

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Strong business development pipeline with new projects. Management expressed strong conviction in the merger's benefits, operational excellence, and ability to deliver on guidance despite macro headwinds.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management did not provide specific capex guidance changes, but highlighted ongoing capacity investments of $500-700 million annually in capacity projects, and noted that the network has latent capacity to support volume growth without significant incremental costs.

Tone · Confident

Management expressed strong conviction in the merger's benefits, operational excellence, and ability to deliver on guidance despite macro headwinds.

Supply-chain alpha

A1

Union Pacific currently operates with >100 fewer locomotives on the main line versus historical levels due to velocity gains, representing latent capacity that can absorb 10%+ volume growth with little incremental cost.

“we're operating with over 100 locomotives on the main line less just because of our speed and what we've been able to improve. So we've parked them. They give us a nice buffer.”
Jim Venna
A2

The Golden Triangle Polymers joint venture between CP Chem (Chevron/Phillips 66) is scheduled to start up in Q3 2026, which will bring significant new chemical volumes onto the Union Pacific network.

“A great example is the Golden Triangle Polymers Company joint venture with CP Chem, where we are encouraged by the upcoming startup of this new world-scale facility in the third quarter.”
Kenny Rocker

Forward guidance

ImprovingGuidance tone · was IN LINE last Q
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
EPSFY20277%–12%9.5%MAINTAINED

Company read-throughs

since call
Customers

Indicates business development success with an automotive OEM, helping to soften auto headwinds.

“having won incremental volume with BMW offset some of the market softness.”
Kenny Rocker
+12.0%
since call
$300.82$337.00
Partners

Management expresses positive view on merger partner, reinforcing conviction in the combination and integration feasibility.

“Norfolk Southern is a good railroad. They're good in how they think about their infrastructure. They're good in how they think about technology.”
Jim Venna
+8.8%
since call
$253.71$275.96
-3.9%
since call
$220.90$212.40
Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

Union Pacific currently operates with >100 fewer locomotives on the main line versus historical levels due to velocity gains, representing latent capacity that can absorb 10%+ volume growth with little incremental cost. — This physical slack means Union Pacific can win truck conversion volumes without needing major capex, pressuring truckload carriers' pricing and market share.

+5.2%
since call
$186.66$196.46
+40.5%
since call
$159.53$224.16
Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

The Golden Triangle Polymers joint venture between CP Chem (Chevron/Phillips 66) is scheduled to start up in Q3 2026, which will bring significant new chemical volumes onto the Union Pacific network. — This large new source of petrochemical traffic will boost Union Pacific's industrial volumes and demonstrates the multi-year tailwind from shipper investment in Gulf Coast chemical plants.