Union Pacific affirms 2026 outlook and long-term EPS CAGR target
Guidance tone
Union Pacific reported record Q1 results with operating ratio improvement and strong free cash flow. Management affirmed 2026 guidance and long-term EPS CAGR target, emphasizing operational excellence and capacity headroom. The call also focused on the pending Norfolk Southern merger, with executives expressing high conviction and pushing back against competitor demands for concessions. Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).
Union Pacific reported record Q1 results with operating ratio improvement and strong free cash flow. Management affirmed 2026 guidance and long-term EPS CAGR target, emphasizing operational excellence and capacity headroom. The call also focused on the pending Norfolk Southern merger, with executives expressing high conviction and pushing back against competitor demands for concessions. Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).
Guidance tone
Q1 2026: revenue $6.2B (+3%), reported EPS $2.87 (+6%), adjusted EPS $2.93 (+9%), OR 59.9% (improved 80 bps).
Affirmed 2026 outlook: mid-single-digit EPS growth, OR improvement; long-term high single-digit to low double-digit CAGR through 2027 reaffirmed.
Significant capacity slack: operating with 100+ fewer locomotives and 24% fewer trains than 2019 at higher volumes, enabling low-cost volume growth.
Management discussed the use of AI in operations, including AI-informed dispatching and terminal optimization, and noted that AI tools are being embedded across the company to improve service, efficiency, and decision-making, with several major AI projects underway.
Strong business development pipeline with new projects. Management expressed strong conviction in the merger's benefits, operational excellence, and ability to deliver on guidance despite macro headwinds.
Management did not provide specific capex guidance changes, but highlighted ongoing capacity investments of $500-700 million annually in capacity projects, and noted that the network has latent capacity to support volume growth without significant incremental costs.
Management expressed strong conviction in the merger's benefits, operational excellence, and ability to deliver on guidance despite macro headwinds.
“we're operating with over 100 locomotives on the main line less just because of our speed and what we've been able to improve. So we've parked them. They give us a nice buffer.”
“A great example is the Golden Triangle Polymers Company joint venture with CP Chem, where we are encouraged by the upcoming startup of this new world-scale facility in the third quarter.”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2027 | 7%–12% | 9.5% | MAINTAINED |
Indicates business development success with an automotive OEM, helping to soften auto headwinds.
“having won incremental volume with BMW offset some of the market softness.”
… in volume and a 4% increase in average revenue per car, reflecting business mix and higher fuel surcharges. As expected, lower West Coast imports and customer shifts had a drag on international intermodal volumes, which declined 28% versus last year. But on a positive note, domestic intermodal delivered its third consecutive record quarter driven by outstanding service and continued commercial momentum. Softening vehicle sales pressured automotive volumes, though having won incremental volume with BMW offset some of the market softness. Looking ahead on side 11. we remain optimistic about coal's potential. Despite current natural gas pricing, we expect four-year coal results to be positive. In grain, improving export demand to China, along with continued momentum into Mexico, positions the business well to support growth. For grain products, we expect continued strength driven by business development and expanding renewable fuels and feedstocks markets with a clear renewable fuels policy providing more stable demand. Moving to industrial. Despite a soft housing environment and tepid and market fundamentals, we remain firmly focused on outperforming industrial production. We …
Management expresses positive view on merger partner, reinforcing conviction in the combination and integration feasibility.
“Norfolk Southern is a good railroad. They're good in how they think about their infrastructure. They're good in how they think about technology.”
I just might. Well, in terms of just two quick follow-ups on that, Jim, and this question on integration technology, kind of dovetailing on that last discussion. So are you still assuming first half of 27 approval for And it doesn't sound like it, but just wanted to confirm that you're not really expecting to address some of these concerns from your peers, just more so addressing what the STB has asked for in the new application out next week. And then just would love to hear more about maybe from Eric and you, Jim, about Clear's concern about integration based on prior issues that the industry had quite a long time ago. Clearly things have changed. Some of that you just mentioned with…
… hit the most important three items when you look back in time and then think about how we already are planning to do it differently. So one of the things that certainly caused challenges in the past was technology when you had two railroads merging together with two different transportation systems. It wasn't the technology itself that caused the problem. It was the pace at which the integration occurred. In other words, there wasn't intentional thought and change management around what is the pace you cut that over. Well, we've got a huge advantage. We, Union Pacific, have already demonstrated a very strong ability to change over systems, including our full transportation system called NetControl just a little less than two years ago very successfully, not a blip. No customer was impacted. It was seamless. It was very effective. So we've got that experience. In addition, when you move past the technology and you think about timing, you've seen in the past with some mergers where a KPI right out of the gate is the pace of implementation. Now, look, we're not in the business of going slow. We're in the business of understanding exactly what we have to do on day one, day 90, day 180. And I'll tell you, on day one, you're not going to see a lot of difference, right? We will operate these two railroads largely independently, at least for the first few months, and then we'll thoughtfully, because of all the planning that we're doing, implement one action. Once that action is implemented, we'll make sure that it worked effectively, and then we'll move to the next. And then I saved the most important one for last. If you look at past mergers, often the premium railroad was buying a railroad that was operating very poorly. That's not the case here. The Norfolk Southern is a good railroad. They're good in how they think about their infrastructure. They're good in how they think about technology. Together we're going to be even stronger, but we're not buying some railroad that's been in disarray for a decade. We're buying a really good railroad, combining it with another really good railroad, And obviously, as Jim's pointed out today, then that outcome is a positive for all of our stakeholders. So that work is all underway. It's being done very intentionally. And we're going to be the most comprehensive integration of any two railroads that this country's ever seen.
Union Pacific currently operates with >100 fewer locomotives on the main line versus historical levels due to velocity gains, representing latent capacity that can absorb 10%+ volume growth with little incremental cost. — This physical slack means Union Pacific can win truck conversion volumes without needing major capex, pressuring truckload carriers' pricing and market share.
The Golden Triangle Polymers joint venture between CP Chem (Chevron/Phillips 66) is scheduled to start up in Q3 2026, which will bring significant new chemical volumes onto the Union Pacific network. — This large new source of petrochemical traffic will boost Union Pacific's industrial volumes and demonstrates the multi-year tailwind from shipper investment in Gulf Coast chemical plants.
… strength driven by business development and expanding renewable fuels and feedstocks markets with a clear renewable fuels policy providing more stable demand. Moving to industrial. Despite a soft housing environment and tepid and market fundamentals, we remain firmly focused on outperforming industrial production. We expect the strong volume in construction and petrochemicals to continue based on our customer wins. A great example is the Golden Triangle Polymers Company joint venture with CP Chem, where we are encouraged by the upcoming startup of this new world-scale facility in the third quarter. Wrapping up with premium, international intermodal volumes will remain subdued, although we lapped some of the shifts we experienced last year as we moved through the quarter. Domestic intermodal continues to perform well, supported by over-the-road conversions, enabled by our strong service product and diverse market reach. While softer vehicle sales are expected to pressure automotive volumes, We expect business development wins will offset some of the impact. Our first quarter results reflect the team's relentless focus on revenue growth, which is achieved through pricing to …