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TXN
FY2025 Q4
개선
Texas Instruments Incorporated 실적 발표
Buzzberg 분석
Data center revenue grew ~70% YoY, expected to keep growing
TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment).
Buzzberg 분석 Data center revenue grew ~70% YoY, expected to keep growing TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment). 전체 분석 보기분석 접기
TXN reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.4B, in line with expectations, with strong year-on-year growth in analog and data center. Q1 2026 guidance of $4.32-4.68B is above typical seasonality, driven by improving orders and data center momentum. Management emphasized that industrial is still well below prior peaks, implying further recovery potential, and highlighted their inventory and capacity as competitive advantages to capture just-in-time demand. Q4 revenue $4.4B (-7% QoQ, +10% YoY), EPS $1.27 (incl. $0.06 impairment).
- Q1 2026 revenue guide $4.32-4.68B (above seasonal low-single-digit flat), EPS $1.22-1.48.
- Full-year 2025: industrial $5.8B (33%), auto $5.8B (33%), data center $1.5B (9%).
- Data center grew ~70% YoY in Q4 and 64% for the full year; TI now sampling V-core power management products.
AUTOMOTIVE 매출$5.8B보고값
COMMUNICATIONS_EQUIPMENT 매출$0.5B보고값
DATA_CENTER 매출$1.5B보고값
INDUSTRIAL 매출$5.8B보고값
근거 있는 핵심 내용 6개
지금 중요한 점
이번 발표에서 가장 의미 있는 변화를 정리했습니다.
Guidance
Q1 guidance above seasonality, driven by stronger bookings
Demand
Industrial recovery continuing but still ~25% below 2022 peak
핵심 내용 3개 더 보기
Pricing
2026 pricing assumed down 2-3%, not driving Q1 strength
Capex
Capex to be $2-3B in 2026, nearing end of elevated cycle
Supply
Inventory level considered an asset to meet real-time demand
보고 기간
보고 실적
| 지표 | 보고값 | 변화 |
|---|---|---|
| AUTOMOTIVE 매출 | $5.8B | 보고값 |
| COMMUNICATIONS_EQUIPMENT 매출 | $0.5B | 보고값 |
| DATA_CENTER 매출 | $1.5B | 보고값 |
| INDUSTRIAL 매출 | $5.8B | 보고값 |
| PERSONAL_ELECTRONICS 매출 | $3.7B | 보고값 |
| 매출 | $4.423B | -7% 전분기 대비 |
향후 전망
향후 가이던스
| 지표 | 기간 | 범위 | 중간값 | 상태 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 자본지출 | FY2026 | $2B–$3B | $2.5B | 유지 |
| 주당순이익(EPS) | FY2026 Q1 | $1.22–$1.48 | $1.35 | 제시 |
| 매출 | FY2026 Q1 | $4.32B–$4.68B | $4.5B | 제시 |
AI, 자본지출 및 수요 분석
경영진 분석
Measuredly Confident
Management expressed optimism about a continuing recovery and strong data center growth, while remaining cautious about sustainability of order improvements and noting industrial still below prior peak.
투자 및 생산능력
Management highlighted nearing the end of a six-year elevated capex cycle, with 2026 capex expected between $2 and $3 billion, and emphasized that the CHIPS Act investment tax credit rising to 35% will offset capital intensity. They noted progress on the Sherman fab (ahead of schedule) and Lehigh fab insourcing, positioning for dependable low-cost 300mm capacity.
외부 신호
공급망 알파 · 5
Industrial revenue remains ~25% below its 2022 peak, implying substantial room for further recovery as secular content growth continues.
근거
“even if I go back to Q3, which was the highest industrial quarter for 2025, it was still about 25% from the previous peaks in year 2022.”
TI is sampling a new V-core voltage regulator for data center, built on its own BCD process in Sherman, expanding its addressable content in power management.
근거
“the V-Core ... is where a lot of the current going into an accelerated computer or a CPU comes from, and TI is building the technology in Sherman ... That product is sampling.”
TI sees no plans for a step-function price increase in Q1 2026, unlike some peers, maintaining an assumption of low-single-digit annual price erosion.
근거
“Q1 pricing usually goes down a little bit because of yearly negotiations. That's usually what we see in Q1.”
The company built an 'inventory buffer' that allowed it to fulfill a surge in last-minute (turns) orders in Q4, a capability that may differentiate TI when supply tightens.
근거
“we are very pleased with the inventory position we have built... that's an asset that allows us to serve customers, especially in the current environment when we see a lot of real-time, just-in-time demand.”
Management attributed the above-seasonal Q1 guide partly to customers completing their BOMs after securing memory supply, linking TI's orders to memory availability dynamics.
근거
“When a customer doesn't necessarily have everything they need... when they finally have those parts they need, sometimes they'll come in very quickly and want to order parts.”
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