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TKO
FY2025 Q4
Improving
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 guidance implies 43% adjusted EBITDA growth
TKO's management presented an upbeat FY2025 Q4 call, highlighting record media rights deals with Paramount, ESPN, and Netflix. The company issued strong FY2026 guidance for revenue and EBITDA growth, driven by these deals and continued expansion in partnerships and international live event incentives (FIPs), while deliberately managing a one-time $30 million loss on the White House UFC event as a strategic marketing investment. TKO's FY2026 guidance calls for 21% revenue growth and 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, with margins expanding ~600 bps to ~39.6%.
Buzzberg read 2026 guidance implies 43% adjusted EBITDA growth TKO's management presented an upbeat FY2025 Q4 call, highlighting record media rights deals with Paramount, ESPN, and Netflix. The company issued strong FY2026 guidance for revenue and EBITDA growth, driven by these deals and continued expansion in partnerships and international live event incentives (FIPs), while deliberately managing a one-time $30 million loss on the White House UFC event as a strategic marketing investment. TKO's FY2026 guidance calls for 21% revenue growth and 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, with margins expanding ~600 bps to ~39.6%. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
TKO's management presented an upbeat FY2025 Q4 call, highlighting record media rights deals with Paramount, ESPN, and Netflix. The company issued strong FY2026 guidance for revenue and EBITDA growth, driven by these deals and continued expansion in partnerships and international live event incentives (FIPs), while deliberately managing a one-time $30 million loss on the White House UFC event as a strategic marketing investment. TKO's FY2026 guidance calls for 21% revenue growth and 43% adjusted EBITDA growth, with margins expanding ~600 bps to ~39.6%.
- Media rights deals with Paramount (UFC) and ESPN (WWE) are now live, providing a step change in high-margin revenue from FY2026 onwards.
- Management reframed 'site fees' as broader 'Financial Incentive Packages' (FIPs), forecasting ~$300M in value for 2026 and $380-420M by 2030.
- The flagship White House UFC event is set to lose ~$30M net, but is explicitly positioned as a strategic investment to drive Paramount+ subscribers and global awareness.
IMG Revenue$248MReported
Revenue$1.038BReported
UFC Revenue$401MReported
WWE Revenue$360MReported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Partnerships
Raised 2030 partnerships revenue target to $1.2 billion
Live Events
Financial incentive packages to more than double by 2030
Show 3 more callouts
Strategy
White House event is a strategic investment, not profit
Strategy
2026 is a year of execution, not M&A
Buybacks
Additional $1 billion buyback planned
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IMG Revenue | $248M | Reported |
| Revenue | $1.038B | Reported |
| UFC Revenue | $401M | Reported |
| WWE Revenue | $360M | Reported |
| EPS | $-0.08 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 44.56% | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapexWHITE_HOUSE_EVENT_COST | FY2026 | $60M | $60M | Guided |
| Operating margin | FY2026 | 39.6% | 39.6% | Guided |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $5.675B–$5.775B | $5.725B | Guided |
| RevenueOLYMPICS | FY2026 | $170M | $170M | Guided |
| UnitsPARTNERSHIPS | FY2030 | $1.2B | $1.2B | Raised |
| UnitsWORLD_CUP_EBITDA | FY2026 | $75M | $75M | Guided |
| UnitsFIP | FY2026 | $300M | $300M | Guided |
| UnitsFIP | FY2030 | $380M–$420M | $400M | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management expressed strong optimism about execution, growth targets, and strategic initiatives, emphasizing 'chock full of optimism' and 'momentum scripted to continue.'
all 5 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Mark Shapiro
The multi-year deal with ESPN gives WWE a powerful promotional partner in the US and expands its reach to a broader sports audience.
Evidence
“we brought WWE PLEs to ESPN, kicking off the five-year partnership with the first-ever WrestlePalooza”
Customers
Mark Shapiro
TKO is expanding its sponsorship portfolio into new categories, adding major tech and consumer brands as partners.
Evidence
“healthy combination of expanded renewals with market-leading brands like Monster Energy and innovative new category alliances with Meta, IBM, PolyMarket, DoorDash, and RAM”
Customers
Mark Shapiro
IBM's partnership underscores TKO's ability to attract enterprise tech sponsors looking to reach its demographic.
Evidence
“innovative new category alliances with Meta, IBM, PolyMarket, DoorDash, and RAM”
Customers
Mark Shapiro
The strong engagement of WWE content on Netflix validates the partnership and indicates continued high demand for live sports on the platform.
Evidence
“We launched WWE on Netflix in January 2025. Over the course of the first year of this 10-year deal, viewers streamed 525 million hours of content”
Customers
Ari Emanuel
The massive $60 million White House UFC event is a strategic investment expected to generate massive earned media and subscriber acquisition, but will result in a net ~$30 million loss. — This planned loss is a deliberate cost to help Paramount+ grow its subscriber base, but it is a one-time cash hit for TKO that is not indicative of long-term margin trends.
Evidence
“UFC's $7.7 billion deal with Paramount, where it joins the NFL, NCAA Final Four, UEFA Champions League, and the Masters”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
TKO discloses that its 'site fees' are broader than just cash, now termed 'Financial Incentive Packages' (FIPs), which include value-in-kind. This changes how investors should model international event economics.
Evidence
“agreements often include a combination of cash, non-cash subsidies, and value-in-kind support. As such, going forward, we'll be referring to these site fees more broadly as financial incentive packages”
The massive $60 million White House UFC event is a strategic investment expected to generate massive earned media and subscriber acquisition, but will result in a net ~$30 million loss.
Evidence
“we see this once in a lifetime stage as a strategic investment to drive subscriber acquisition at Paramount+, massive audience sampling for the UFC overall, and Super Bowl-like earned media across the globe. The event will cost us upwards…”
TKO's free cash flow is heavily influenced by the timing of its major event deals (World Cup, Paramount+ deal backloaded), making FCF a less reliable indicator of performance in 2026.
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 5 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.