Republic Services reported a solid 4Q, with revenue growth of 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of ~7%, driven by strong pricing and disciplined cost management, partially offset by lower volumes in construction and manufacturing. Management provided 2026 guidance broadly in line with expectations, highlighting continued pricing power and margin expansion, while acknowledging macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of lapping one-time disaster cleanup volumes. 4Q25 revenue grew 3.5% to $4.1B; adjusted EPS was $7.02 for the full year.
Buzzberg read2026 guidance implies ~4% organic top-line growth ex-2025 cleanup volumesRepublic Services reported a solid 4Q, with revenue growth of 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of ~7%, driven by strong pricing and disciplined cost management, partially offset by lower volumes in construction and manufacturing. Management provided 2026 guidance broadly in line with expectations, highlighting continued pricing power and margin expansion, while acknowledging macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of lapping one-time disaster cleanup volumes. 4Q25 revenue grew 3.5% to $4.1B; adjusted EPS was $7.02 for the full year.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Republic Services reported a solid 4Q, with revenue growth of 3.5% and adjusted EBITDA growth of ~7%, driven by strong pricing and disciplined cost management, partially offset by lower volumes in construction and manufacturing. Management provided 2026 guidance broadly in line with expectations, highlighting continued pricing power and margin expansion, while acknowledging macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of lapping one-time disaster cleanup volumes. 4Q25 revenue grew 3.5% to $4.1B; adjusted EPS was $7.02 for the full year.
Core price on related revenue was 7.1%, and average yield was 4.5%, indicating strong pricing power.
Volume declines were concentrated in construction/manufacturing and deliberate shedding of some residential contracts.
Environmental Solutions revenue declined 2% due to a non-recurring emergency response project; underlying performance was stable.
Environmental solutions expects flat 2026 revenue with second-half recovery
Management is optimistic about long-term strategy and 2026 outlook, but cautious about near-term macro and volume headwinds.
03
Capex
Plan to keep evaluating markets before committing to fourth polymer center
Management continues to invest in growth and sustainability, including fleet electrification (adding 150 EV trucks in 2026), polymer centers and RNG projects, and expects to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026.
04
AI
AI and digital initiatives expected to drive nine-figure cost improvements
Management is investing in AI-enabled tools for pricing optimization, routing efficiency, and customer service, expecting these to unlock incremental growth and drive sustained operating leverage, with cost improvements measured in nine figures over time.
AI, capex & demand read
AI
Platform & monetization
Management is investing in AI-enabled tools for pricing optimization, routing efficiency, and customer service, expecting these to unlock incremental growth and drive sustained operating leverage, with cost improvements measured in nine figures over time.
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Environmental solutions expects flat 2026 revenue with second-half recovery. Management is optimistic about long-term strategy and 2026 outlook, but cautious about near-term macro and volume headwinds.
Capex
Investment and capacity
Management continues to invest in growth and sustainability, including fleet electrification (adding 150 EV trucks in 2026), polymer centers and RNG projects, and expects to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026.
Tone · Measured Confidence
Management is optimistic about long-term strategy and 2026 outlook, but cautious about near-term macro and volume headwinds.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Republic Services expects the first quarter of 2026 to be negatively impacted by weather-related volume losses, estimating $30-35 million in impact, which is not yet fully reflected in the guidance.
“So just in the month of January alone, we're estimating about $25 million impact from weather, and the first week of February experienced weather as well. So that could be a $30, $35 million number...”
Plastics recycling is experiencing a squeeze, but Republic's vertical integration and premium product output are stabilizing its spreads; however, a fourth polymer center is deferred due to market conditions.
“It certainly is a delayed, which kind of pushed everything a little bit to the right. But now, as you heard in our prepared remarks, nine projects coming online in 2025.”
Republic Services expects the first quarter of 2026 to be negatively impacted by weather-related volume losses, estimating $30-35 million in impact, which is not yet fully reflected in the guidance. — This indicates a softer start to the year for the waste industry due to weather, which could pressure near-term volumes and revenues for competitors as well.
Plastics recycling is experiencing a squeeze, but Republic's vertical integration and premium product output are stabilizing its spreads; however, a fourth polymer center is deferred due to market conditions. — The delay in expanding its polymer network signals caution about recycled plastics demand, with feedstock costs and PET pricing pressures persisting in the near term.