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QCOM FY2026 Q1 SOFTENING

QUALCOMM Incorporated earnings call

Feb 04, 2026 · 16:45 ET Akash PalkawalaAlex RogersChristian Omon
Buzzberg read

Memory shortage likely to constrain handset industry through fiscal year

Qualcomm reported record results for its fiscal first quarter but guided significantly lower, citing a broad industry DRAM shortage constraining handset production. Management repeatedly attributed the weakness to supply-side dynamics in memory and emphasized that demand fundamentals remain strong. Record revenue and EPS driven by strong premium-tier handset demand and multiple growth vectors.

Buzzberg read Memory shortage likely to constrain handset industry through fiscal year Qualcomm reported record results for its fiscal first quarter but guided significantly lower, citing a broad industry DRAM shortage constraining handset production. Management repeatedly attributed the weakness to supply-side dynamics in memory and emphasized that demand fundamentals remain strong. Record revenue and EPS driven by strong premium-tier handset demand and multiple growth vectors. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Qualcomm reported record results for its fiscal first quarter but guided significantly lower, citing a broad industry DRAM shortage constraining handset production. Management repeatedly attributed the weakness to supply-side dynamics in memory and emphasized that demand fundamentals remain strong. Record revenue and EPS driven by strong premium-tier handset demand and multiple growth vectors.

  • Q2 guidance is sharply lower, with management attributing the dip to a broad DRAM shortage.
  • The memory shortage is industry-wide, and management frames the problem as a supply constraint, not a demand issue.
  • Management expects automotive and IoT growth to cushion the impact and drive long-term revenue diversification.
QCT_HANDSET revenue $7.8B reported
Revenue $12.252B reported
EPS $3.50 reported
Gross margin 54.55% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Supply

Memory shortage likely to constrain handset industry through fiscal year

Qualcomm reported record results for its fiscal first quarter but guided significantly lower, citing a broad industry DRAM shortage constraining handset production. Management repeatedly attributed the weakness to supply-side dynamics in memory and emphasized that demand…

02
Automotive

Automotive revenue growth expected to accelerate above 35% in Q2

Record revenue and EPS driven by strong premium-tier handset demand and multiple growth vectors.

03
Demand

Samsung premium device share expected at roughly 75%

Management acknowledged near-term memory-driven handset weakness but remained upbeat on underlying demand, diversification momentum, and long-term growth across automotive, IoT, robotics, and data center.

04
AI

ByteDance launched first agentic AI smartphone on Snapdragon

Management framed AI as the core growth driver across mobile, edge/robotics, and data center, citing ByteDance's agentic AI smartphone launch, Snapdragon AI PC momentum, a new robotics portfolio, and positive data center engagement with hyperscalers on specialized inference…

AI, capex & demand read

AI

Platform & monetization

Management framed AI as the core growth driver across mobile, edge/robotics, and data center, citing ByteDance's agentic AI smartphone launch, Snapdragon AI PC momentum, a new robotics portfolio, and positive data center engagement with hyperscalers on specialized inference platforms.

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Samsung premium device share expected at roughly 75%. Management acknowledged near-term memory-driven handset weakness but remained upbeat on underlying demand, diversification momentum, and long-term growth across automotive, IoT, robotics, and data center.

Tone · Confident

Management acknowledged near-term memory-driven handset weakness but remained upbeat on underlying demand, diversification momentum, and long-term growth across automotive, IoT, robotics, and data center.

Bottlenecks

Compute & memoryworsening

The DRAM shortage is severe enough that it is now becoming a major constraint on the overall handset industry, potentially limiting unit growth in FY2026.

This shifts focus and pricing power to memory makers and indicates IoT and PC sectors could face similar constraints.

“As memory suppliers redirect manufacturing capacity to HBM to meet AI data center demand, the resulting industry-wide memory shortage and price increases are likely to define the overall scale of the handset industry through the fiscal year”
Christian Omon
Compute & memoryworsening

Memory is a bottleneck for AI infrastructure

“So as a general trend, and I wanted to emphasize what we saw in the quarter, you know, Yes, there's a memory shortage, but when there was memory, we saw the results was very good.”
Christian Omon
Compute & memoryworsening

Memory is a bottleneck for AI infrastructure

“They're dealing with us in this memory shortage and our employees.”
Christian Omon

Supply-chain alpha

A1

The DRAM shortage is severe enough that it is now becoming a major constraint on the overall handset industry, potentially limiting unit growth in FY2026.

“As memory suppliers redirect manufacturing capacity to HBM to meet AI data center demand, the resulting industry-wide memory shortage and price increases are likely to define the overall scale of the handset industry through the fiscal yea…”
Cristiano Amon
A2

OEMs, especially in China, are cutting chipset orders and inventory to align with reduced build plans due to the memory shortage.

“Given the current environment, several handsets OEMs, especially in China, are taking a cautious approach in reducing their chipset inventory.”
Cristiano Amon
A3

Memory availability, not consumer demand, is now the binding constraint on the handset market for the fiscal year.

“I think the memory availability will determine the overall size of the handset market.”
Cristiano Amon
A4

The memory shortage is boosting Qualcomm's data center business case, as its power-efficient specialized inferencing architecture gains relevance.

“Additionally, the recent developments in the industry validate Qualcomm's view of the importance of specialized and power-efficient AI platforms as inferencing becomes the key driver of data center growth.”
Cristiano Amon
A5

Qualcomm expects automotive and IoT revenue growth to outpace the run rate required for its long-term diversification targets, propelled by multiple new design wins.

Forward guidance

SofteningGuidance · revenue to $10.6B
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
EPSFY2026 Q2$2.45–$2.65$2.55GUIDED
RevenueQCT_HANDSETFY2026 Q2$6B$6BGUIDED
RevenueFY2026 Q2$10.2B–$11B$10.6BGUIDED

Guidance credibility

4 / 4met or beat
Guidance credibility
IssuedMetricTargetGuideActualOutcome
FY2026 Q2EPSFY2026 Q3$2.10–$2.30$2.21Met / beat
FY2026 Q2RevenueFY2026 Q3$9.2B–$10B$9.947BMet / beat
FY2026 Q2RevenueFY2026 Q3$4.9B$5.1BMet / beat
FY2026 Q2RevenueFY2026 Q3$1.15B–$1.35B$1.3BMet / beat

Company read-throughs

since call
since call
Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

The DRAM shortage is severe enough that it is now becoming a major constraint on the overall handset industry, potentially limiting unit growth in FY2026.

since call
Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

Memory availability, not consumer demand, is now the binding constraint on the handset market for the fiscal year.

since call
Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

The memory shortage is boosting Qualcomm's data center business case, as its power-efficient specialized inferencing architecture gains relevance.