Pinnacle West reported strong 2025 results with robust sales growth driven by data centers and the semiconductor industry, but EPS fell due to weather and higher costs. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and highlighted the importance of a constructive rate case, new large-load customer agreements, and grid expansion. 2025 EPS of $5.05 was within guidance, with strong underlying growth offset by a 71-cent negative weather impact.
Pinnacle West reported strong 2025 results with robust sales growth driven by data centers and the semiconductor industry, but EPS fell due to weather and higher costs. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and highlighted the importance of a constructive rate case, new large-load customer agreements, and grid expansion. 2025 EPS of $5.05 was within guidance, with strong underlying growth offset by a 71-cent negative weather impact.
Management repeatedly highlighted strong execution, record demand, and durable growth, while expressing confidence in navigating regulatory and financing challenges.
Long-term sales growth guidance reaffirmed at 5-7% through 2030. Management repeatedly highlighted strong execution, record demand, and durable growth, while expressing confidence in navigating regulatory and financing challenges.
Long-term sales growth guidance reaffirmed at 5-7% through 2030. Management repeatedly highlighted strong execution, record demand, and durable growth, while expressing confidence in navigating regulatory and financing challenges.
Management maintains its 5-7% long-term sales growth through 2030 and 7-9% rate base growth through 2028; the huge uncommitted load queue (20 GW) and potential TSMC expansions are not in these numbers, representing significant upside.
Long-term sales growth guidance reaffirmed at 5-7% through 2030. Management repeatedly highlighted strong execution, record demand, and durable growth, while expressing confidence in navigating regulatory and financing challenges.
Management reaffirmed a 7% to 9% rate base growth through 2028, driven by grid reliability and customer growth investments. They highlighted the Red Hawk gas expansion on track for 2028 and preparations for up to 2 gigawatts of additional gas capacity from 2030, plus transmission expansion. The capital plan may be augmented by new large load contracts or further TSMC expansion, which would be incr
Management repeatedly highlighted strong execution, record demand, and durable growth, while expressing confidence in navigating regulatory and financing challenges.
“The growth forecast that we've outlined is really based on projects that we have a high degree of confidence and certainty in developing and we track that very closely.”
“I think the headline from our read was it was generally constructive. But there are material differences between the situation for the U.N.S. gas case and then APS.”
“Our 2026 equity needs are largely de-risked with nearly $500 million already priced.”
“Distributed generation produced pretty small offsets to residential sales. I think that's what drove it to the upside and kind of continue to drive that tailwind into Q4 of last year.”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CapexRATE_BASE_GROWTH | FY2028 | 7%–9% | 8% | MAINTAINED |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.55–$4.75 | $4.65 | MAINTAINED |
| RevenueSALES_GROWTH | FY2026 | 4%–6% | 5% | MAINTAINED |
| RevenueSALES_GROWTH | FY2030 | 5%–7% | 6% | MAINTAINED |
PNW's 4.5 GW of committed load (which includes TSMC) is a floor for its load forecast; its 20 GW uncommitted queue and potential TSMC expansions are incremental and not in the capital plan. — The size of the uncommitted queue and TSMC's expansion potential represent undiscovered upside to PNW's growth and capex plans.
“In Arizona, TSMC continues to expand their footprint with its second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction already, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres”
… and data centers, continues to drive strong economic activity across the state. These large load customers continue to accelerate their ramp schedules, as evidenced by our long-term sales growth of 5 to 7 percent through 2030. The U.S. Department of Commerce and Taiwan recently announced agreements expected to spur at least $250 billion of additional semiconductor investment in the United States. In Arizona, TSMC continues to expand their footprint with its second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction already, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres recently acquired for future expansion and growth. We look forward to working with TSMC and the broader chip manufacturing sector as we expand grid infrastructure to support their rapid growth. At the same time, residential growth remains strong across our service territory. For the second consecutive year, we installed more than 34,000 new meters, the highest level in 20 years. We're ready to meet demand growth, and our strong execution is showing results. We finished over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources ahead of schedule, including new gas …
PNW sees 'distributed generation' (rooftop solar) headwinds fading, which could be a tailwind to residential sales growth. — If the rooftop solar slowdown persists, PNW's retail load growth could outpace its already-high expectations.
Hey, Ted and Andrew. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on slide 20 on the sales growth. I mean, I think the first bullet says that all nine consecutive quarters of growth exceeding the guidance range and just obviously 4Q looks like it's accelerating. Maybe there's some, you know, Steve Monowitz, Art versus science of weather normalization in a in a week weather quarter, but can you just talk a little bit about you know what the sales growth trend looks like versus kind of the four to 6% 26 sales growth that you've given in the long term guidance as well.
Steve Monowitz, Sure, Steve it's Andrew you know we've continued to see a very diversified and very consistent sales growth. You know, for the year, residential came in at really the top end of where we've ever forecasted, because that 4% to 6% that we've forecasted for last year, that we forecast for this year, represents largely the ramp up of our extra high load factor customers. So, to see that level of residential growth driven by nearly 2.5% customer growth remains strong. What we expect in 2026 is kind of a reversion to the normal dynamics where the ramp up of the extra high-low factor customers is the dominant part of the sales mix. But one of the, I think, tailwinds that we've seen that we'll just have to continue to monitor in 2026, distributed generation produced pretty small offsets to residential sales. I think that's what drove it to the upside and kind of continue to drive that tailwind into Q4 of last year. And so we'll just have to continue to monitor as those reductions in applications we're seeing for new rooftop installations translate potentially into support for our residential sales growth numbers. But in the near term, 2026 is driven by the known customers in that queue that we see ramping and see coming online, including as the FAFSA TSMC continued to move ahead. And then over the longer term through 2030, that step up is really related to, again, those known customers and where we expect them to be in their ramps. And, you know, having worked with the data centers for a long time, I think our forecasting has gained a, you know, a good balance of understanding where these customers are, what the intent of their facilities are, and how that drives those ramp rates year to year. But fundamentally, the runway that we have with these customers and combined with the semiconductor space and then the residential growth gives us pretty strong confidence in those numbers through the end of the decade.