Mosaic reported a strong Q1 in phosphate sales volume (1.9M tons), but the real narrative is the severe margin squeeze from elevated sulfur and ammonia costs. Management is curtailing production and cutting capex to preserve cash, citing unsustainable stripping margins. They provided Q2 guidance for high sulfur costs ($540/ton) and ammonia costs ($610/ton), which will likely pressure Q2 margins despite strong international demand. Q1 phosphate sales were 1.9M tons, more than 5 years high, releasing some working capital.
Mosaic reported a strong Q1 in phosphate sales volume (1.9M tons), but the real narrative is the severe margin squeeze from elevated sulfur and ammonia costs. Management is curtailing production and cutting capex to preserve cash, citing unsustainable stripping margins. They provided Q2 guidance for high sulfur costs ($540/ton) and ammonia costs ($610/ton), which will likely pressure Q2 margins despite strong international demand. Q1 phosphate sales were 1.9M tons, more than 5 years high, releasing some working capital.
Mosaic reported a strong Q1 in phosphate sales volume (1.9M tons), but the real narrative is the severe margin squeeze from elevated sulfur and ammonia costs. Management is curtailing production and cutting capex to preserve cash, citing unsustainable stripping margins. They…
Management cut 2026 capex guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion after a review of project plans, deferring less time-sensitive projects while maintaining long-term production targets. They also idled underperforming assets and are selling non-core mines to reallocate…
Company taking actions: curtailment at Bartow and Louisiana, Brazil fertilizer production cuts, $250M capex cut to $1.25B, $50M annualized cost savings from workforce reduction.
Q2 guidance: DAP prices at $760-780/ton against sulfur costs at $540/ton and ammonia at $610/ton.
Management's tone is bearish due to high sulfur and ammonia costs, forcing curtailments and capex cuts despite strong Q1 phosphate volumes.
Management cut 2026 capex guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion after a review of project plans, deferring less time-sensitive projects while maintaining long-term production targets. They also idled underperforming assets and are selling non-core mines to reallocate capital toward higher-return opportunities.
Management acknowledges severe near-term challenges (sulfur costs, phosphate curtailments) but repeatedly emphasizes temporary actions and long-term positioning for recovery, projecting confidence in weathering the storm.
“marginal cost of sulfur, which today is at $1,200 per ton... the marginal sweeping margin is below variable costs.”
“realized sulfur costs of roughly $540 per ton, and ammonia costs roughly $610 per ton.”
“we do have about 30 days of inventory of sulfur. That equates to approximately 400,000 tons of sulfur.”
“This is a temporary move that allows us to limit the need for incremental sulfur at today's prices and wait until the market normalizes.”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $1.25B | $1.25B | LOWERED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE_SALES | FY2026 Q2 | $1.6B–$1.8B | $1.7B | MAINTAINED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE_SALES | FY2026 Q2 | $760B–$780B | $770B | GUIDED |
Mosaic to develop a rare earth extraction project with Rainbow Rare Earths in Brazil, leveraging their existing phosphate byproduct.
“In March, we announced a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths following a positive economic assessment of the Ubaraba gypstack in Brazil.”
… rapidly despite the financial pressure on farmers, a clear indication that our products are delivering on their value proposition. We expect to launch eight to 10 new products in 2026, including two new products that were launched during the first quarter. We expect Mosaic Biosciences revenues to double again in 2026. I also want to touch on our work on rare earth elements. which represents a long-term growth opportunity for Mosaic. In March, we announced a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths following a positive economic assessment of the Ubaraba gypstack in Brazil. The project would recover rare earth elements from phosphogypsum rather than through traditional hard rock mining, leveraging existing byproducts from our operations. We are evaluating similar opportunities for rare earth extraction in the U.S., and early findings are encouraging. This is a long-term opportunity, and we are advancing it in a disciplined, phased manner consistent with our investment criteria. To conclude, clearly, we and the rest of the industry are operating in a challenging climate. Overall, we are managing with speed and agility, taking actions that are required by our current …
Mosaic is partially curtailing production at its Bartow and Louisiana phosphate plants and scaling back Brazilian production due to marginal sulfur costs of $1,200/ton, despite strong Q1 volumes.