Market share
← Earnings Calls
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LOW
FY2025 Q4
In line
Lowe's Companies, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
Lowe's will take share regardless of macro conditions
Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit).
Buzzberg read Lowe's will take share regardless of macro conditions Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit). Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Lowe's reported a strong Q4 2025 with positive comps, driven by pro, online, and services, but issued a cautiously neutral 2026 outlook due to continued housing market pressure. While management highlighted market share gains and operational execution, they guided for a wide range of outcomes for the year, reflecting uncertainty about rate cuts, tariff policy, and big-ticket consumer spending. Q4 sales of $20.6B grew 1.3% y/y, with positive comps in pro, online (+10.5%), and home services (high-single-digit).
- Full-year 2025 sales were $86.3B with adjusted EPS of $12.28, and the company returned $2.6B in dividends.
- 2026 guidance is cautious: sales of $92-94B (comps flat to +2%), adjusted EPS of $12.25-12.75, and adjusted operating margin of 11.6-11.8%.
- The company completed the acquisitions of FBM and ADG, which are expected to add ~$8B in sales in 2026 but dilute operating margins by ~30 bps.
Revenue$20.584B-1% QoQ
EPS$1.98-35% QoQ
Gross margin39.16%Reported
Operating margin8.3%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Cost/Productivity
Cutting 600 corporate roles to retain financial agility and fund customer-facing areas
AI
AI assistant Milo is doubling online conversion rates
Show 3 more callouts
Pro
Pro extended aisle is scaling and exceeding expectations
Acquisitions
FBM commercial wins new data center contracts
Guidance
Q1 comps will run below full-year midpoint due to storms
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.584B | -1% QoQ |
| EPS | $1.98 | -35% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 39.16% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 8.3% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.964B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.603B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $2.5B | $2.5B | Guided |
| EPS | FY2026 | $12.25–$12.75 | $12.50 | Guided |
| Operating margin | FY2026 | 11.6%–11.8% | 11.7% | Guided |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $92B–$94B | $93B | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Cautiously Confident
They describe the 2026 outlook as cautious due to housing macro volatility, but repeatedly express confidence in outperforming the market and taking share.
Management AI read
Management frames AI as a core enabler across selling, shopping, and working, citing virtual assistant Milo doubling online conversion, AI-enabled pro and merchant tools improving productivity, and early positioning for agentic commerce with digital platforms.
Investment and capacity
Management is raising capital expenditure in 2026 to invest in total home strategic initiatives, with spending heavily concentrated in the retail business.
all 3 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Suppliers
Suppliers
Marvin Ellison
Lowe's expanding its assortment of DeWalt (Stanley Black & Decker) products, which could drive volume and share gains for the supplier in the pro channel.
Evidence
“We are furthering enhancing our pro brand offering by extending our assortment of the number one power tool brand, DeWalt, the tool of choice for pros for over 100 years. We are excited that we now carry the largest selection of DeWalt”
Suppliers
Bill Boltz
New Sherwin-Williams products are gaining traction with pro customers at Lowe's, driving sales growth for both the retailer and the paint supplier.
Evidence
“we're off to a great start with the new Sherwin-Williams ProBlock Quick-Dry Primers, which we introduced in Q3. Pros are responding to the superior quality and performance versus the competition, helping to drive double-digit pro comps and”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Brandon Sink
Management disclosed that the Fed's rate cuts have not yet spurred meaningful demand, and they are watching mortgage rates, noting the dip below 6% this week is a potential psychological unlock. — This is an early signal that recent rate cuts are not yet translating into housing activity, but a drop below 6% could be the critical threshold for a demand recovery.
Evidence
“We do look at sub-6% rates as potentially stimulating demand. We saw that this week for the first time dip just below 6%. Translating all that into the guide, there is a delay, as Marvin referenced.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 4returns since call
Lowe's core business held operating margin flat in 2025 excluding acquisitions, and expects 30 bps of margin dilution from FBM/ADG in 2026, implying improved core business profitability.
Evidence
“This includes 30 basis points of dilution related to the wrap of FBM and ADG in 2026. And as a reminder, the acquisitions drive approximately 50 basis points of dilution on an annualized basis.”
Management disclosed that the Fed's rate cuts have not yet spurred meaningful demand, and they are watching mortgage rates, noting the dip below 6% this week is a potential psychological unlock.
The company outlined a new 'full-shelf replenishment' AI-enabled initiative that launched across all stores to use real-time data to identify and restock critical out-of-stocks.
Evidence
“our new full-shelf replenishment initiative, which launched across all stores last month. Using real-time data to identify out-of-stocks, this AI-enabled technology sends stores a prioritized list of the most critical items to restock”
The pro extended aisle is 'exceeding all expectations,' adding new suppliers and products to the platform, and supporting planned pro spend.
Evidence
“We continue a multi-year build-out for 2026. We're very pleased. It's actually exceeding all expectations. And we're adding new suppliers, new markets every single week...”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 3 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.