KEY FY2026 Q1 IMPROVING

KeyCorp earnings call

Apr 16, 2026 · 06:00 ET Brian MonningChris GormanClark Kyatt

Buzzberg read

Raised NII and loan growth guidance for 2026

KeyCorp delivered a strong Q1 2026 with EPS of $0.44, up 33% YoY, driven by broad-based commercial loan growth, record investment banking fees, and improving NIM. Management raised full-year NII and loan growth guidance and emphasized strong capital returns. The call also provided incremental disclosures on NDFI and private credit exposure, noting that private credit redemptions may create lending opportunities for banks. EPS $0.44, +33% YoY; ROTCE >13% on track to 15%+ by 2027.

Buzzberg read Raised NII and loan growth guidance for 2026 KeyCorp delivered a strong Q1 2026 with EPS of $0.44, up 33% YoY, driven by broad-based commercial loan growth, record investment banking fees, and improving NIM. Management raised full-year NII and loan growth guidance and emphasized strong capital returns. The call also provided incremental disclosures on NDFI and private credit exposure, noting that private credit redemptions may create lending opportunities for banks. EPS $0.44, +33% YoY; ROTCE >13% on track to 15%+ by 2027. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

NIM expanded 5bps to 2.87%; guided to ~3.05% by year-end under no-cut base case.
Commercial loans grew $3.3B (+4% sequentially) with broad-based demand across verticals and geographies.
Raised 2026 NII growth guide to 9-10% (from 8-10%) and average loan growth to 2-4% (from 1-2%).

Revenue $2.728B -5% QoQ

EPS $0.44 +7% QoQ

NET_INTEREST_MARGIN gross margin 2.87% reported

Gross margin 67.41% reported

What changed this quarter

Guidance

Raised NII and loan growth guidance for 2026

Guidance tone

Buybacks

Increased buyback commitment to at least $1.3 billion in 2026

EPS $0.44, +33% YoY; ROTCE >13% on track to 15%+ by 2027.

Demand

Investment banking pipelines at record levels, M&A pending

Management expresses strong momentum, raised guidance, and emphasizes disciplined execution while acknowledging macro uncertainties and monitoring risks.

Credit

NDFI growth driven by reclassification and specialty finance

Commercial loans grew $3.3B (+4% sequentially) with broad-based demand across verticals and geographies.

AI, capex & demand read

Platform & monetization

Management is investing approximately $1 billion in technology this year, with AI focused on enhancing client experiences, accelerating credit decisioning, increasing technology productivity, and strengthening risk and security monitoring. They see AI as a key opportunity to scale platforms and drive margin expansion, particularly in wealth management.

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Investment banking pipelines at record levels, M&A pending. Management expresses strong momentum, raised guidance, and emphasizes disciplined execution while acknowledging macro uncertainties and monitoring risks.

Capex

Investment and capacity

KeyCorp is investing approximately $1 billion in technology this year to deliver new product and service capabilities, improve client outcomes, and leverage AI. This investment is part of their broader strategy to support organic growth and improve efficiency.

Tone · Confident

Management expresses strong momentum, raised guidance, and emphasizes disciplined execution while acknowledging macro uncertainties and monitoring risks.

Supply-chain alpha

Private credit redemptions are causing some alternative lenders to pull back, creating an opportunity for banks to re-intermediate lending.

BX APO

“some of the private credit players, obviously, in light of redemptions, are not in the market the way they have been”

Chris Gorman

Commercial real estate transactional activity is finally starting to pick up as bid-ask spreads narrow, which could drive loan growth and advisory fees.

“for the first time in a long time, we're starting to see this backlog of commercial real estate transactional activity”

Chris Gorman

Forward guidance

ImprovingGuidance tone · was IN LINE last Q

Forward guidance
Metric	Period	Range	Midpoint	Status
Gross marginNET_INTEREST_MARGIN	FY2026 Q4	3.05%	3.05%	MAINTAINED
RevenueNET_INTEREST_INCOME	FY2026	9%–10%	9.5%	RAISED
UnitsLOANS	FY2026	2%–4%	3%	RAISED
UnitsCOMMERCIAL_LOANS	FY2026	6%–8%	7%	RAISED

Company read-throughs

+6.3%

since call

$129.74→$137.90

APO

+10.8%

since call

$121.13→$134.21

Supply chainSupply-chain alpha

Private credit redemptions are causing some alternative lenders to pull back, creating an opportunity for banks to re-intermediate lending. — If private credit retrenches, banks like KeyCorp and larger peers may win back market share in commercial lending, potentially improving loan spreads and volumes.

Chris Gorman

Q&A context

BX / APO· Supply chain

Question

Erica NajarianAnalyst, UBS

Thank you and good morning. The first one is for you, Chris. You know, given the strength that you showed this quarter on both lending and fees, maybe talk a little bit about client sentiment and how they're balancing sort of the geopolitical volatility with, you know, some of the, you know, positive on the ground, you know, big beautiful bill stimulus and, you know, everything else that's happening domestically. And additionally, thank you so much for the NDFI and quotes breakdown. I'm wondering what you're seeing in terms of, you know, sponsor activity, um, what you're seeing in terms of your private credit clients and one of your peers, David Solomon mentioned actually in the private…

Management answer

Chris GormanChairman and Chief Executive Officer

… we're talking when we talk about massive flow we're talking about our customers with between 250 000 and 2 million to invest 18 months ago we thought that universe was 1 million of our 3.5 million customers we went back and redid it based on market activity we now believe it to be 1.15 million so up 15 so on the consumer side the consumer actually our consumer is in good shape Now, on the commercial side, there's obviously some puts and takes. You saw for the first time, as Clark detailed, our utilization went up, which is a good thing. We're starting to see people actually invest more in CapEx with some of the benefits from the big, beautiful bill that you pointed out. And then, of course, the flip side of it is just the macro uncertainty. And so what we did see in the quarter is some people pulled some deals forward so think about if you were going to go to the investment grade credit markets and the in the activity started you probably pulled that forward conversely on m a deals what's happening is they're not going away but people are kind of slow playing it doing a lot of due diligence because there's so much volatility kind of day to day week to week and so we saw sort of saw both sides of that having said that as we said earlier our pipelines remain very, very strong. So, I'm very optimistic about kind of where we are from our commercial businesses, but obviously, you know, it's not without impact from the near-term volatility. Second part of your question as it relates to NDFI is a very great question because this is kind of a developing area. We've seen a steady march down in terms of spreads for a long time because there's just been too much capacity in the market with respect to commercial loans. What we're seeing just as of late is affirming there. And part of the firming of that is that some of the private credit players, obviously, in light of redemptions, are not in the market the way they have been. And I actually think as you look forward, there's a lot of discussion around private credit. I personally don't think there's a credit problem, but these redemptions are real. And that if you have a bunch of redemption requests, the first thing you do is stop shoveling it out the front door, which I think will give the banks in some instances an opportunity to re-intermediate some of those activities. So that's kind of a, that's my perspective.