2026 adjusted expenses guided to about $105 billion, up meaningfully
JPMorgan's Q4 2025 results were strong, with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, and the firm remains optimistic about 2026 growth, driven by new investments and a supportive macro environment. Management expressed confidence in the consumer, though card NCOs are expected to rise, and investments in technology and partnerships, including the Apple Card, are set to increase expenses. JPMorgan reported Q4 EPS of $4.63 and revenue of $46.8bn, up 7% YoY, with strong markets and AWM performance.
Buzzberg read2026 adjusted expenses guided to about $105 billion, up meaningfullyJPMorgan's Q4 2025 results were strong, with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, and the firm remains optimistic about 2026 growth, driven by new investments and a supportive macro environment. Management expressed confidence in the consumer, though card NCOs are expected to rise, and investments in technology and partnerships, including the Apple Card, are set to increase expenses. JPMorgan reported Q4 EPS of $4.63 and revenue of $46.8bn, up 7% YoY, with strong markets and AWM performance.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
JPMorgan's Q4 2025 results were strong, with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, and the firm remains optimistic about 2026 growth, driven by new investments and a supportive macro environment. Management expressed confidence in the consumer, though card NCOs are expected to rise, and investments in technology and partnerships, including the Apple Card, are set to increase expenses. JPMorgan reported Q4 EPS of $4.63 and revenue of $46.8bn, up 7% YoY, with strong markets and AWM performance.
The firm maintained its 2026 NII (ex-markets) outlook of $95bn and given total NII of $103bn, while raising the adjusted expense guide to $105bn due to growth investments.
Card net charge-offs are guided to ~3.4% for 2026, indicating a normalizing credit cycle.
Management discussed the strategic benefits of the Apple Card acquisition and partnership with Coinbase, but also flagged risks of regulation on credit card interest rates and stablecoins.
Revenue$69.609B
reported
EPS$4.63
reported
Gross margin59.11%
reported
Op margin24.65%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
2026 adjusted expenses guided to about $105 billion, up meaningfully
Guidance tone
02
Credit
Card net charge-offs expected near 3.4% on resilient consumer
JPMorgan reported Q4 EPS of $4.63 and revenue of $46.8bn, up 7% YoY, with strong markets and AWM performance.
Management is upbeat about the opportunity set and franchise investment, while acknowledging macro, regulatory, and competitive risks without sounding defensive.
04
Technology
Apple Card integration takes two years due to bespoke iOS tech stack
Card net charge-offs are guided to ~3.4% for 2026, indicating a normalizing credit cycle.
AI, capex & demand read
AI
Platform & monetization
Management says AI spending will increase and is part of a broader technology investment agenda, though it is not yet a big expense driver. They expect AI to drive future efficiency and view these investments as necessary to stay ahead of traditional and non-traditional competitors.
Demand
Bookings & conversion
IB pipeline supports strong 2026 deal activity expectations. Management is upbeat about the opportunity set and franchise investment, while acknowledging macro, regulatory, and competitive risks without sounding defensive.
Capex
Investment and capacity
No classic capex guide was given, but management guided 2026 adjusted expenses to about $105 billion, a meaningful increase. Spending will fund technology, AI, branches, payments, product capabilities, Apple Card integration, and some real-estate catch-up, framed as structural optimism and necessary investment in the franchise.
Tone · Confident
Management is upbeat about the opportunity set and franchise investment, while acknowledging macro, regulatory, and competitive risks without sounding defensive.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
JPMorgan's NBFI lending definition is narrower than the regulatory one, excluding items like subscription lending to private equity funds, and hasn't experienced a traditional credit cycle, with only one charge-off since 2018.
“When we look at NVFI lending internally, we use a narrower definition than what the call report uses. Our definition focuses on exposure to non-bank financial institutions that is collateralized by the loans the NVFIs are making to end bor…”
JPMorgan sees a temporary increase in advanced RWA from the Apple Card transaction, estimated at $110 billion, expected to fall to approximately $30 billion.
“The Apple Card transaction's advanced RWA contribution was about $110 billion, based on the sum of expected drawn balances and undrawn lines on closing. The elevated level of advanced RWA is temporary and is expected to reduce to approxima…”
JPMorgan expects card loan growth of about 6% to 7% for 2026, which is lower than recent years as the 'revolved normalization tailwind' is behind.
“I think we're expecting something like 6% or 7% card loan growth for 2026. So, that is lower than we've seen recently, obviously, but we've been talking about that for some time as a function of the normalization of the revolver account.”
JPMorgan is spending on integration and tech, with a plan to hire more personnel and invest in new technology, including the Apple Card integration and AI initiatives.
“The Apple card is part of that, but there's other stuff too. And so at the margin, we are allowing ourselves to at least plan for some additional hiring and technology in order to support what Jamie's saying, like the long-term investment…”
The agreement with Coinbase is part of JPMorgan's portfolio to integrate crypto capabilities into its consumer banking, which could expand Coinbase's market reach.
“we're plugging in a little bit more to a crypto ecosystem and You know, we have an agreement with Coinbase, and it's going to, you know, be possible to buy crypto in the CCB ecosystem, too.”
Hi, thanks very much. So I want to ask on the stablecoin issue. This week, we're going to have some markings up and talk in Congress. I saw the ABA letter this week talking about the immediacy of the issue and whether or not they can close the loophole on interest on stablecoin. And I think they estimated that, or Treasury estimated that it's like 6.6 trillion of bank deposits could be at risk if they don't close that loophole. So my question is, it was written from the ABA standpoint, the community bank standpoint. Is there any reason why it wouldn't be all banks, you specifically, and then how big of a deal for the banking system if they're not successful closing that hole because it…
All right. Okay. Thanks, Glenn. I guess I'll start by saying you probably know more about this than I do, and I think Marianne is really the expert at this point, and she – did give some comments about this at a recent industry conference. But I'll give you my brief take broken into a couple of pieces. So one, you know, it's worth saying, although it's not directly responsive to your question, that as a company, we've been quite involved in the whole blockchain technology space for some time and through our Connexus offering are doing a bunch of kind of really cool stuff across both wholesale, As you know, we launched our first tokenized money market fund. And so that's a capability that we've developed over a long period of time. We are really cutting edge in Gerson there. And we're kind of using that kind of across the whole company as we engage more in that ecosystem. On a related point, also, I think in CCB, you know, we're plugging in a little bit more to a crypto ecosystem and You know, we have an agreement with Coinbase, and it's going to, you know, be possible to buy crypto in the CCB ecosystem, too. So I say that all by way of saying that, like, we see the interesting developments in the space of technological innovation. We're engaged. We're watching. We care. I would just add one quick thing.
JPMorgan sees a temporary increase in advanced RWA from the Apple Card transaction, estimated at $110 billion, expected to fall to approximately $30 billion. — Indicates a short-term capital headwind for JPMorgan that will reverse, showing the scale of the Apple Card portfolio's near-term capital tie-up.
“This is an economically compelling transaction for us as a co-brand deal. And I think someone described it, you know, as a win-win-win for all three parties.”