IP reported Q1 2026 results below expectations, citing winter storm impacts, elevated input costs (diesel, chemicals, energy), and softer demand across both North America and EMEA as key drivers. Despite these headwinds, management highlighted continued market share gains in North American corrugated volumes and progress in its transformation initiatives, while lowering full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance. The company expects a significant second-half step-up driven by price increases flowing through, cost-out actions, and the normalization of planned outages. IP lowered its FY2026 enterprise adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.2-3.5B from the previous $3.5-3.7B, with both North America and EMEA segments seeing reduced forecasts due to macro headwinds, weather, and operational performance.
IP reported Q1 2026 results below expectations, citing winter storm impacts, elevated input costs (diesel, chemicals, energy), and softer demand across both North America and EMEA as key drivers. Despite these headwinds, management highlighted continued market share gains in North American corrugated volumes and progress in its transformation initiatives, while lowering full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance. The company expects a significant second-half step-up driven by price increases flowing through, cost-out actions, and the normalization of planned outages. IP lowered its FY2026 enterprise adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.2-3.5B from the previous $3.5-3.7B, with both North America and EMEA segments seeing reduced forecasts due to macro headwinds, weather, and operational performance.
IP reported Q1 2026 results below expectations, citing winter storm impacts, elevated input costs (diesel, chemicals, energy), and softer demand across both North America and EMEA as key drivers. Despite these headwinds, management highlighted continued market share gains in…
Guidance tone
Guidance tone
The company is temporarily short on paper in North America ahead of the Riverdale conversion, while noting the US containerboard market is 'very tight'.
Guidance was lowered for both North America and EMEA due to macro headwinds, weather, and performance misses. Management expects a significant step-up in second-half results driven by pricing, cost-out, and maintenance timing normalization.
Management is significantly accelerating capital investment across North America, investing approximately 50% more per facility in 2025-2027 than the prior three-year average. This includes over 80 major projects across mill and box systems, greenfield facilities, strategic conversions, and the NORPAC bolt-on acquisition, all aimed at improving reliability, modernizing assets, and strengthening co
Management acknowledges macro headwinds, operational misses, and reduced guidance, while emphasizing control over controllables and confidence in long-term strategy.
“Visibility beyond the near term is limited, so we're staying focused on what we can control, strengthening the competitiveness of our network, onboarding commercial winds, investing in our assets, and executing on cost out.”
“the paper market in the U.S. is very tight.”
“That fourth quartile is very likely under cash cost right now, so you're actually, you're seeing that, you're seeing small pieces of action relative to that, whether it's temporary shutdowns, furloughs, you're seeing a few closures that ha…”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | FY2026 | $0.3B–$0.5B | $0.4B | INITIATED |
| UnitsPACKAGING_SOLUTIONS_NORT | FY2026 | $2.35B–$2.5B | $2.425B | LOWERED |
| UnitsPACKAGING_SOLUTIONS_EMEA | FY2026 | $0.9B–$1B | $0.95B | LOWERED |
| Units | FY2026 | $3.2B–$3.5B | $3.35B | LOWERED |
| UnitsPACKAGING_SOLUTIONS_NORT | FY2026 Q2 | $0.38B–$0.41B | $0.395B | GUIDED |
| UnitsPACKAGING_SOLUTIONS_EMEA | FY2026 Q2 | $0.15B–$0.17B | $0.16B | GUIDED |
IP says the US containerboard paper market is 'very tight' and they are 'modestly short' on paper, buying in the open market ahead of the Riverdale conversion, while export markets have been a leading indicator of tightness. — Indicates near-term pricing power for the industry; IP's own short position before Riverdale conversion ramps suggests competitors and suppliers may have negotiating leverage for the next two quarters.
Hey, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, I'm encouraging to hear, I mean, your box shipment to North America, you know, pretty strong, and you're expecting a pretty stable environment at large for the broader industry. If I heard you correctly earlier, you mentioned the word you were short on paper. So just curious, what are you seeing in the marketplace from a supply-demand standpoint? One of your bigger competitors talked about really tight market conditions. It led to a price increase in June. So kind of help us tease that out just because we've been all anticipating this capacity closure. Hasn't felt tight yet, but what are you seeing now as we head…
Yeah, I think what we should do is just focus on the fact, what the mechanics are in the market, actually what's really happening. We are modestly short on paper ourselves, right? So we're in the market buying some paper. What you just said, we've heard the same things, but I can't really comment on that. The other thing that I think is noticeable is what's happening in the export markets, because if you think about it, the export markets tend to be more volatile and they tend to be a leading indicator of what's happening in the marketplace. And the export market, you can see the facts, right? It's been it's been it's been Really tight, you know, the way to say it. So, you know, we never comment on future pricing, things that haven't happened. But our view is that the market, the paper market in the U.S. is very tight.
In EMEA, fourth-quartile containerboard assets are likely under cash cost due to fossil-fuel dependence and the energy price shock, prompting temporary shutdowns and furloughs, though not a mass closure event. — Prolonged energy price pressure could accelerate capacity rationalization in Europe, benefiting integrated producers with low-cost, energy-efficient assets.
“That fourth quartile is very likely under cash cost right now, so you're actually, you're seeing that, you're seeing small pieces of action relative to that, whether it's temporary shutdowns, furloughs, you're seeing a few closures that”