2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and Blue
Ford delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.
Buzzberg read2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and BlueFord delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Ford delivered FY2025 results near the top of its revised guidance, with strong performance in its Pro segment and continued cost discipline, despite substantial headwinds from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption and tariffs. Management guides to a stronger 2026 with EBIT of $8-10B, underpinned by product mix improvements and regulatory relief, while navigating temporary costs from continued supply-chain constraints. FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.
Ford Pro EBIT was $6.8B on $66B revenue with double-digit margin, highlighting the strength of its commercial business.
Ford Model E losses improved to $4.8B, with management targeting breakeven by 2029.
2026 guidance calls for EBIT of $8-10B, FCF of $5-6B, and capex of $9.5-10.5B, with segment EBIT for Pro, Blue, Model E, and Credit detailed.
Revenue$45.89B
reported
EPS$0.13
reported
Gross margin3.72%
reported
Op margin-1.98%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
2026 EBIT guided to $8-10B with improved Ford Pro and Blue
Guidance tone
02
Ford Pro
Ford Pro's software and services now 19% of EBIT, targeting 20%
FY2025 adjusted EBIT was $6.8B, including $2B headwinds from Novelis fires and $2B from tariffs, with a $1B favorable cost performance offsetting other pressures.
03
EV losses
Model E losses to improve but remain $4-4.5B in 2026
Ford Pro EBIT was $6.8B on $66B revenue with double-digit margin, highlighting the strength of its commercial business.
04
Supply
Novellus impact to improve $1B in 2026 but temporary costs
Ford Model E losses improved to $4.8B, with management targeting breakeven by 2029.
Demand & capex
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Ford guides to a $8-10B EBIT for 2026, reflecting positive market mix, improved costs, and regulatory benefits, despite significant temporary costs from the Novelis supply disruption.
Capex
Investment and capacity
Ford is raising capex to $9.5-10.5 billion in 2026, up over $1 billion, primarily to fund Ford Energy ($1.5 billion) and continued investments in UEV, EREV, and modeling, while shifting capital toward higher-return truck and multi-energy portfolio.
Tone · Confident
Management expressed confidence in executing strategy, highlighting strong foundations, improved cost and quality, and a clear path to 8% EBIT margin, while acknowledging near-term headwinds.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Ford expects to incur $1.5-2 billion of temporary costs (including tariffs and premium freight) to ensure aluminum supply continuity until the Novelis hot mill restarts between May and September, impacting 2026 EBIT and free cash flow.
“That includes $1.5 to $2 billion of temporary costs, including tariffs, to ensure continuity in aluminum supply. These costs are not expected to be repeated in 2027.”
Ford's new 'Ford Energy' business will invest ~$1.5 billion in 2026 to build 20 GWh of LFP battery storage capacity, leveraging CATL's licensed technology, with customer contracts already being discussed.
“We have been deeply engaged with customers as we develop this business plan and we continue to engage them in specific contracts for our 20 gigawatt hour capacity in 27 and beyond.”
Ford has lost ~100,000 units of production in 2025 due to Novelis fires and expects to only recover 50-60k units in 2026, indicating a more gradual volume recovery.
“So we had lost around 100,000 units last year. we're planning to increase by about 50 to 60 this year is the plan.”
Ford concluded 2025 with $1.5 billion in cost improvements, exceeding its original $1 billion target, and is targeting an additional $1 billion in 2026.
“we ended up with one and a half billion of cost improvements in a year over year basis versus what we originally were targeting at one.”
Ford expects the US regulatory environment to be a ~$500 million tailwind in 2026, primarily from reduced EV emission credit requirements, reflecting a more industrial-friendly policy stance.
“the biggest impact there would be about a half a billion less of credits in the US. You'll note that we had about 0.7 billion of credits last year, but about a half a billion of that is attributed to the US.”
Oh, no, I think you covered the tariff question. Thank you. As a follow-up, Jim, I'd like to just ask conceptually how you're looking at the investment in EV and AV. And really, it's just in the context of if we look at the arc of investment you had the past five years. We know that you and others went through this very heavy push on EV, AV software, sort of had mixed results. And, you know, you took a big impairment. A lot of companies took big impairments on the back of what happened with the regs. But it seems like you're resetting strategy now. There's a fresh push on EV with UEV. You're making more investments on ADAS and software. So help us understand in light of the experience the…
Thank you for your question. So I think the customer has spoken. That's the punchline. The customers in their duty cycle have spoken. There's enough choice around the world on electrification for us to cherry pick customers' choices around the world and come up with the right strategy, not only in the U.S., but around the world. In the U.S., you hit it. Our bet is on the UEB. We believe this platform localized in LAP will hit the majority of profitable EVs sold in the U.S., which are $35,000 EVs, high volume. Tesla's shown that we can make money in that market even without subsidy from the government at the right cost level. But that's only part of our strategy. In addition to that, we're betting on hybrid across our lineup and E-REV where it makes sense for our duty cycle, like the large trucks. where towing is a real important application, and both FHEV and pure electric will definitely not work. So we're looking to make CO2 reductions across our lineup, but we're doing it in a very efficient way. Overseas, the story's a bit different. Overseas, we're looking to piggyback like in Europe with Renault and Volkswagen on capital-efficient, high-scale, lower-cost solutions like B-car EVs in Renault. We think that is a market, depending on how the EU and the UK incentivize them, where that can be profitable. Elsewhere, we'll be opportunistic between PHEVs and hybrids for Ranger, our body on frame and our growing export business from China will be opportunistic based on that customer in Australia or South Africa or Brazil, exactly what they want. I think the real question that I ask myself is how will the Chinese change the game with all of these in terms of pricing power given the overly competitive subsidized reality and for example in january the chinese market being down 25 year-over-year if that persists you know we will have to future proof our costs around that pricing reality That and the regulatory environment, I think, are the wild cards in this strategy. But that's the same wild card every OEM has. But I do believe this is the right allocation of capital. It's a combination of partnerships where it makes sense, efficient partial electrification investments where we have revenue power, and really hitting the EV market in the core of the market in our home market where there's not a lot of competition. Great.
Ford expects to incur $1.5-2 billion of temporary costs (including tariffs and premium freight) to ensure aluminum supply continuity until the Novelis hot mill restarts between May and September, impacting 2026 EBIT and free cash flow. — Ford's temporary premium freight costs and aluminum supply de-risking could signal tightness in the aluminum supply chain, benefiting primary aluminum producers.