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FY2025 Q4
Improving
First Solar, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
CURE rollout begins next month, targeting 8% more energy yield than TOPCon
First Solar reported record 2025 results, with revenue and EPS at the high end of guidance, and provided a 2026 outlook that projects slightly lower revenue but a significantly higher gross margin driven by $2.1B+ in 45X tax credits. Management was tactically long-term, emphasizing a fully allocated US production position, a large contracted backlog, and the optionality of curtailed Southeast Asian capacity as it awaits the outcome of trade policy and IP litigation. FY2025 revenue of $5.2B and EPS of $14.21 were at the top end of guidance.
Buzzberg read CURE rollout begins next month, targeting 8% more energy yield than TOPCon First Solar reported record 2025 results, with revenue and EPS at the high end of guidance, and provided a 2026 outlook that projects slightly lower revenue but a significantly higher gross margin driven by $2.1B+ in 45X tax credits. Management was tactically long-term, emphasizing a fully allocated US production position, a large contracted backlog, and the optionality of curtailed Southeast Asian capacity as it awaits the outcome of trade policy and IP litigation. FY2025 revenue of $5.2B and EPS of $14.21 were at the top end of guidance. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
First Solar reported record 2025 results, with revenue and EPS at the high end of guidance, and provided a 2026 outlook that projects slightly lower revenue but a significantly higher gross margin driven by $2.1B+ in 45X tax credits. Management was tactically long-term, emphasizing a fully allocated US production position, a large contracted backlog, and the optionality of curtailed Southeast Asian capacity as it awaits the outcome of trade policy and IP litigation. FY2025 revenue of $5.2B and EPS of $14.21 were at the top end of guidance.
- FY2026 revenue guided to $4.9-5.2B, with gross margin ~49.5% due to Section 45X tax credits.
- Backlog stands at 50.1 GW, providing a multi-year revenue and earnings visibility cushion.
- Management is curtailing Southeast Asian production, creating ~$1B in underutilization and startup costs as it bets on trade policy tailwinds.
Revenue$1.6828BReported
EPS$4.84Reported
Gross margin39.54%Reported
Operating margin32.56%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Pricing
Booked 1 GW US at 36.4 cents per watt with adders
Legal
Filing ITC complaint against 10 groups over TopCon patent infringement
Show 3 more callouts
Margins
Tariffs and warehousing weigh on margins, but path to 20% core exists
Technology
Perovskite pilot line operational in early 2027, Oxford PV license secured
Margins
India production yields high teens to low 20% gross margin
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6828B | Reported |
| EPS | $4.84 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 39.54% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 32.56% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $1.0702B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.1717B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $0.8B–$1B | $0.9B | Guided |
| Gross margin | FY2026 | $2.5B–$2.6B | $2.55B | Guided |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $4.9B–$5.2B | $5.05B | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Cautiously Confident
Management emphasized a strong backlog and balance sheet while highlighting ongoing policy, tariff, and underutilization headwinds, projecting a steady path to improve margins.
Investment and capacity
Management guided 2026 capital expenditures to $0.8–$1.0 billion, with roughly half supporting capacity expansion, primarily the South Carolina finishing line and the Louisiana plant. The remainder is split evenly between CURE in India and R&D technology replication and maintenance.
all 4 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Alex Bradley
BP's contract breach and subsequent termination negatively impacted First Solar's 2025 financials, and the two are now entangled in litigation.
Evidence
“the termination amounts recognized in the third quarter related to the breach of contracts by affiliates of BP.”
Competitors
Competitors
Mark Widmar
US Customs is suggesting that no panels imported during the two-year ADCVD moratorium qualified for the moratorium, implying retroactive tariffs could be a significant financial liability for foreign producers that relied on it. — Retroactive tariff collection would significantly raise costs for importers of Chinese-tied panels, potentially making them less competitive and disrupting existing contracts in the US.
Evidence
“this is a separate action from our three actions seeking monetary damages against affiliates of Adani, Canadian Solar, and JNCO in the U.S. District Court.”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Mark Widmar
The US ITC case on TopCon patents, if successful, could result in a General Exclusion Order blocking imports of infringing TopCon products from all foreign entities, which is a potentially more sweeping action than a limited exclusion order. — A general exclusion order would be a substantial supply shock for the US solar market, potentially tightening supply and benefiting US domestic producers like First Solar.
Evidence
“the recently reported 236 million settlement entered in between Maxion and IACO. just days before a U.S. patent court was due to decide their patent dispute.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
The US ITC case on TopCon patents, if successful, could result in a General Exclusion Order blocking imports of infringing TopCon products from all foreign entities, which is a potentially more sweeping action than a limited exclusion order.
Evidence
“If the IETC institutes an investigation based on our complaint, we expect that the matter would be decided in approximately 18 months. If our case is successful, the ITC may issue a general exclusion order preventing the importation of inf…”
US Customs is suggesting that no panels imported during the two-year ADCVD moratorium qualified for the moratorium, implying retroactive tariffs could be a significant financial liability for foreign producers that relied on it.
Evidence
“one recent industry publication noted that, quote, U.S. Customs is suggesting that no panels that came in during the moratorium qualified for the moratorium.”
The near-total curtailment of First Solar's Southeast Asian factories is acting as a strategic option, preserving capacity for potential supply constraints driven by policy, but is creating significant underutilization costs and warehousing expenses in 2026.
Evidence
“we are looking at this as really an option to allow some of these potential tailwinds around 232 and other things to play itself out. to see what the impact of that could be to create more demand for those international operations.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 4 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.