Skip to earnings analysis
← Back to feed
FCX FY2025 Q4 IMPROVING

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. earnings call

Jan 22, 2026 · 05:00 ET Corey StevensDavid JointKathleen Quirk
Buzzberg read

Grasberg restart on track for Q2 2026 startup

Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4/FY2025 results, highlighting strong US performance and progress on Grasberg recovery. Management guided 2026 copper sales to reach a ~1 billion pound quarterly run rate in H2, with unit costs averaging $1.75/lb and capex of $4.3-$4.5bn per year in 2026-27. No significant cross-company signals were provided. Grasberg Block Cave restart on track for Q2 2026, targeting 85% of district production by H2 2026.

Buzzberg read Grasberg restart on track for Q2 2026 startup Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4/FY2025 results, highlighting strong US performance and progress on Grasberg recovery. Management guided 2026 copper sales to reach a ~1 billion pound quarterly run rate in H2, with unit costs averaging $1.75/lb and capex of $4.3-$4.5bn per year in 2026-27. No significant cross-company signals were provided. Grasberg Block Cave restart on track for Q2 2026, targeting 85% of district production by H2 2026. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4/FY2025 results, highlighting strong US performance and progress on Grasberg recovery. Management guided 2026 copper sales to reach a ~1 billion pound quarterly run rate in H2, with unit costs averaging $1.75/lb and capex of $4.3-$4.5bn per year in 2026-27. No significant cross-company signals were provided. Grasberg Block Cave restart on track for Q2 2026, targeting 85% of district production by H2 2026.

  • US operations expect 8% volume growth in 2026, driven by leach initiatives and efficiency gains.
  • 2026-2027 capex guided at $4.3-$4.5bn, including $150m for Baghdad expansion engineering.
  • Copper price exposure: each $0.10/lb change impacts annual EBITDA by ~$415m.
Revenue $5.633B -19% QoQ
EPS $0.47 -6% QoQ
Gross margin 18.05% reported
Op margin 14.4% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Supply

Grasberg restart on track for Q2 2026 startup

Freeport-McMoRan reported Q4/FY2025 results, highlighting strong US performance and progress on Grasberg recovery. Management guided 2026 copper sales to reach a ~1 billion pound quarterly run rate in H2, with unit costs averaging $1.75/lb and capex of $4.3-$4.5bn per year in…

02
Growth

Leach production targeted to increase 40% in 2026

Grasberg Block Cave restart on track for Q2 2026, targeting 85% of district production by H2 2026.

03
Growth

U.S. copper production potential over 50% increase in 4-5 years

US operations expect 8% volume growth in 2026, driven by leach initiatives and efficiency gains.

04
Capex

Bagdad expansion decision targeted for second half 2026

Freeport is increasing capital expenditures to approximately $4.3-4.5 billion per year in 2026 and 2027, up from $3.9 billion in 2025, with an added $150 million in 2026 to advance engineering and early works for the Bagdad expansion. The capital is directed at growth projects…

Demand & capex

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Copper demand projected to double by 2040 per S&P report. Management expressed confidence in executing the Grasberg restart plan and highlighted significant growth opportunities in leaching and U.S. expansion, while acknowledging challenges.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Freeport is increasing capital expenditures to approximately $4.3-4.5 billion per year in 2026 and 2027, up from $3.9 billion in 2025, with an added $150 million in 2026 to advance engineering and early works for the Bagdad expansion. The capital is directed at growth projects including the Kucing Liar development, the LNG project at Grasberg, and the leach initiative.

Tone · Confident

Management expressed confidence in executing the Grasberg restart plan and highlighted significant growth opportunities in leaching and U.S. expansion, while acknowledging challenges.

Forward guidance

ImprovingGuidance tone · was IN LINE last Q
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
CapexFY2026$4.3B–$4.5B$4.4BGUIDED
CapexFY2027$4.3B–$4.5B$4.4BGUIDED