Duke Energy reported strong Q2 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.43, and reaffirmed its full-year and long-term guidance. The core of the call was growth: management highlighted its massive pipeline of 15.4 GW of large load demand, with 7.8 GW already secured under ESAs, and detailed an expanded framework agreement with GE Vernova for 26 gas turbines. Management also discussed its strategy to protect customers and ratepayers while executing on a record $1 billion per month capex plan. Adjusted EPS of $1.43 for Q2 2026, beating prior year's $1.25.
Buzzberg readReaffirms 5-7% EPS growth, top half from 2028Duke Energy reported strong Q2 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.43, and reaffirmed its full-year and long-term guidance. The core of the call was growth: management highlighted its massive pipeline of 15.4 GW of large load demand, with 7.8 GW already secured under ESAs, and detailed an expanded framework agreement with GE Vernova for 26 gas turbines. Management also discussed its strategy to protect customers and ratepayers while executing on a record $1 billion per month capex plan. Adjusted EPS of $1.43 for Q2 2026, beating prior year's $1.25.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Duke Energy reported strong Q2 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.43, and reaffirmed its full-year and long-term guidance. The core of the call was growth: management highlighted its massive pipeline of 15.4 GW of large load demand, with 7.8 GW already secured under ESAs, and detailed an expanded framework agreement with GE Vernova for 26 gas turbines. Management also discussed its strategy to protect customers and ratepayers while executing on a record $1 billion per month capex plan. Adjusted EPS of $1.43 for Q2 2026, beating prior year's $1.25.
Reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $6.55-$6.80 and 5-7% long-term EPS growth through 2030, targeting the top half of the range from 2028.
Signed 7.8 GW of ESAs with data center customers; expects the remaining 15.4 GW pipeline to convert by H1 2027.
Secured 26 gas turbines under framework agreement with GE Vernova; first turbine delivered to Person County site.
Revenue$7.592B
-17% QoQ
EPS$1.43
-26% QoQ
Gross margin73.06%
reported
Op margin26.99%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
Reaffirms 5-7% EPS growth, top half from 2028
Guidance tone
02
Demand
Secured 7.8 GW of ESAs with data centers
Management repeatedly expressed high confidence in meeting guidance, achieving top-half growth from 2028, and executing on the largest regulated capital plan while managing costs for customers.
03
Demand
Pipeline of 15.4 GW expected to convert by first half 2027
Secured 7.8 GW of ESAs with data centers. Management repeatedly expressed high confidence in meeting guidance, achieving top-half growth from 2028, and executing on the largest regulated capital plan while managing costs for customers.
04
Capex
Potential $5-10B capex upside in Indiana and Florida
Management is executing on the industry's largest regulated capital plan, deploying more than $1 billion per month, and is on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031. They also highlighted $5-10 billion of upside to the current five-year capital plan to support additional…
Demand & capex
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Secured 7.8 GW of ESAs with data centers. Management repeatedly expressed high confidence in meeting guidance, achieving top-half growth from 2028, and executing on the largest regulated capital plan while managing costs for customers.
Capex
Investment and capacity
Management is executing on the industry's largest regulated capital plan, deploying more than $1 billion per month, and is on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031. They also highlighted $5-10 billion of upside to the current five-year capital plan to support additional generation and transmission in Indiana and Florida as large load projects convert to ESAs.
Tone · Confident
Management repeatedly expressed high confidence in meeting guidance, achieving top-half growth from 2028, and executing on the largest regulated capital plan while managing costs for customers.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Duke's data center load has officially pushed its Carolinas load forecast to the 'high-load scenario,' validating the need for its full near-term resource plan, including new gas and nuclear.
“With newly signed ESAs, the load forecast has increased to the high-load scenario, which further confirms our view that all near-term resources in the Carolinas are needed.”
Duke is working through the process of potentially selling its Cayuga coal plant in Indiana to a third party, a move that could reshape its generation portfolio in the state.
“So that study just came in last month. So it's being evaluated and then we'll determine what we need to do with that going forward.”
The pipeline of large load data center customers, which includes major hyperscalers like OpenAI, is converting into firm electric service agreements, providing Duke with a clear revenue growth trajectory.
“We have now secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers.”
… and the strength of our fully regulated utility model, which serves attractive jurisdictions with vibrant economies and constructive regulatory environments across the Southeast and Midwest. Overall, we are extremely pleased with our performance through the first half of 2026 and are firmly on track to achieve full year results within our EPS guidance range. Turning to slide nine, We continue to progress additional large load projects through the pipeline. We have now secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers. The Customer Protection Plus commitment we announced in July reinforces the foundation from which we engage with large load customers. The ESAs we've signed protect existing customers today and deliver value for everyone over time as fixed costs are spread over a larger base. Beyond data center activity, we continue to see strong interest from a diverse set of commercial and industrial sectors, including life sciences and advanced manufacturing. In just the first half of this year, we've secured economic development wins representing $5 billion of investment, supporting over 9,000 jobs across our service territories. This broad-based …
Duke's data center load has officially pushed its Carolinas load forecast to the 'high-load scenario,' validating the need for its full near-term resource plan, including new gas and nuclear. — This confirms the regional utility demand boom is materializing faster than planned, driving incremental orders for turbines and grid equipment.
“we're executing on the construction of new dispatchable capacity, including increasing the number of gas turbines available under our framework agreement with G.Vernova to 26 to align with the next phase of build in the IRPs.”
… for new nuclear to meet future demand. We want to continue to emphasize that additional financial protections are needed before we would propose a new nuclear project. Any structure to advance new nuclear must address first-of-a-kind and supply chain risks, provide financial risk protections for our customers and our investors, and ensure a strong balance sheet during the construction cycle. And lastly, we're executing on the construction of new dispatchable capacity, including increasing the number of gas turbines available under our framework agreement with G.Vernova to 26 to align with the next phase of build in the IRPs. The first turbine was delivered to our Person County combined cycle site in July, and the second will be delivered later this year. Our gas portfolio has approximately five gigawatts under construction and an additional two and a half gigawatts advancing through development. We've contracted with EPC partners and we're closely monitoring construction milestones, enabling us to check and adjust in real time. As we continue to scale, we will work with our EPCs to ensure crews can seamlessly move from one project to the next, and we're prepared to leverage …
Duke's data center load has officially pushed its Carolinas load forecast to the 'high-load scenario,' validating the need for its full near-term resource plan, including new gas and nuclear. — This confirms the regional utility demand boom is materializing faster than planned, driving incremental orders for turbines and grid equipment.
… protections, and careful planning, we're working to ensure growth supports reliability and creates lasting value. Slide 7 shows our continued progress on our record generation build, now on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031, which reflects additions from our latest 10-year site plan in Florida. Starting with regulatory updates, we recently concluded hearings in North Carolina on the 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan. With newly signed ESAs, the load forecast has increased to the high-load scenario, which further confirms our view that all near-term resources in the Carolinas are needed. We expect an order from the North Carolina Commission by year-end. As we look ahead, the Carolinas Resource Plan underscores the role nuclear will play in our all-of-the-above strategy. As the operator of the largest regulated fleet in the U.S., we continue to see significant value in our existing nuclear fleet as we complete upgrades and work to extend the lives of our existing units. We have subsequent license renewals approved by the NRC for two of our plants, and we're preparing to file the SLR application for the Brunswick Nuclear Plant by the end of the year. We are also evaluating …
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