Dow reported Q3 2025 net sales of $10B and EBITDA of $868M, slightly ahead of prior expectations due to cost actions and new unit volumes. Q4 EBITDA is guided lower to ~$725M, reflecting seasonality, higher feedstock costs, and a fire at a Texas polyethylene unit. Management highlighted industry capacity rationalization and anti-dumping actions as positive for the longer-term supply-demand balance. Q3 EBITDA of $868M beat internal expectations due to cost savings (~$75M in the quarter) and volume from new U.S. Gulf Coast units (Poly 7, alkoxylation).
Dow reported Q3 2025 net sales of $10B and EBITDA of $868M, slightly ahead of prior expectations due to cost actions and new unit volumes. Q4 EBITDA is guided lower to ~$725M, reflecting seasonality, higher feedstock costs, and a fire at a Texas polyethylene unit. Management highlighted industry capacity rationalization and anti-dumping actions as positive for the longer-term supply-demand balance. Q3 EBITDA of $868M beat internal expectations due to cost savings (~$75M in the quarter) and volume from new U.S. Gulf Coast units (Poly 7, alkoxylation).
Dow has reduced its CapEx from the original $3.5 billion plan by $1 billion this year, largely due to delaying the Alberta project. The company expects to manage CapEx around $2.5 billion next year if market conditions do not improve, with plans to provide an update on the…
Q3 EBITDA of $868M beat internal expectations due to cost savings (~$75M in the quarter) and volume from new U.S. Gulf Coast units (Poly 7, alkoxylation).
Q4 EBITDA guide of ~$725M includes $25M headwind from a fire at the Poly 6 unit and margin compression from higher ethane costs.
Dow is on track to deliver $400M of its $1B cost savings target in 2025, with line of sight to the full $1B by end of 2026.
Dow guides Q4 EBITDA down sequentially due to seasonal headwinds, higher feedstock costs, and a polyethylene unit fire, indicating a cautious near-term outlook.
Dow has reduced its CapEx from the original $3.5 billion plan by $1 billion this year, largely due to delaying the Alberta project. The company expects to manage CapEx around $2.5 billion next year if market conditions do not improve, with plans to provide an update on the Alberta timeline in January.
Management acknowledged the prolonged down cycle and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty but highlighted strategic actions, cost savings, and industry rationalization as positive signals for future recovery.
“Chinese imports account for about 20% of the MDI market... the market for Chinese imports is dissipating quite quickly.”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2025 | $2.5B | $2.5B | LOWERED |
| Op margin | FY2025 Q4 | $0.725B | $0.725B | GUIDED |
| Issued | Metric | Target | Guide | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q1 | Revenue | FY2026 Q2 | $12B | $12.092B | Met / beat |
Macquarie bought a 49% equity stake in select Dow infrastructure assets, providing Dow with cash and extending its capital flexibility.
“We closed the second and final phase of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership in the U.S. Gulf Coast, delivering $3 billion in total proceeds for Dow this year.”
Thank you, Jim. We advanced several strategic actions in the third quarter. We announced an expansion of our strategic agreement with ME Global to formalize the contractual offtake of an additional 100 kp of ethylene supply at attractive economics for both parties. we closed the second and final phase of our strategic infrastructure asset partnership in the U.S. Gulf Coast, delivering $3 billion in total proceeds for Dow this year. We completed the second of two previously announced non-core divestitures, delivering a total of approximately $250 million at attractive EBITDA multiples of around 10x. And we issued an additional $1.4 billion bond to take advantage of tight credit spreads providing added financial flexibility. We are progressing the delivery of at least $1 billion in targeted cost savings by the end of 2026. We are on track to deliver approximately $400 million of the cost savings this year, which was clearly visible in our third quarter performance. We have also lowered our CapEx spending in alignment with our $1 billion reduction target this year, compared to our original plan of $3.5 billion. This reduction is largely due to our decision to delay the Alberta …
U.S. MDI anti-dumping duties are causing Chinese imports to dissipate quickly, opening volume and pricing opportunities for domestic producers.