Guidance
← Earnings Calls
01
02
03
04 05 06
Tone
AI
Capex
A1 A2 A3
C
FY2025 Q4
Raised
Citigroup, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
NII ex-markets expected to grow 5-6% in 2026
Citi reported a strong Q4 2025, with record revenues across all five businesses, positive operating leverage, and increased capital returns. Management is optimistic about the future, expecting another year of growth and efficiency gains. Adjusted EPS of $1.81 and adjusted ROTC of 7.7% for Q4.
Buzzberg read NII ex-markets expected to grow 5-6% in 2026 Citi reported a strong Q4 2025, with record revenues across all five businesses, positive operating leverage, and increased capital returns. Management is optimistic about the future, expecting another year of growth and efficiency gains. Adjusted EPS of $1.81 and adjusted ROTC of 7.7% for Q4. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Citi reported a strong Q4 2025, with record revenues across all five businesses, positive operating leverage, and increased capital returns. Management is optimistic about the future, expecting another year of growth and efficiency gains. Adjusted EPS of $1.81 and adjusted ROTC of 7.7% for Q4.
- Full-year adjusted net income surpassed $16 billion, with revenues up 7%.
- Services, Markets, and Banking all reported record revenues for the year.
- Wealth management saw 14% revenue growth, with 8% organic net new investment assets.
Revenue$40.855BReported
TTS Revenue$5.7BReported
EPS$1.19Reported
Gross margin43.2%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Margins
Efficiency ratio target around 60% with positive operating leverage
Buybacks
Management will keep returning excess capital to shareholders
Show 3 more callouts
Markets
Markets revenue expected roughly flat in 2026
AI
AI adoption above 70% and expanding across processes
Transformation
Over 80% of transformation programs at or near target state
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40.855B | Reported |
| TTS Revenue | $5.7B | Reported |
| EPS | $1.19 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 43.2% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 9.33% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $24.924B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | FY2026 | 60% | 60% | Maintained |
| Revenue | FY2026 | 5%–6%Above consensus | 5.5% | Raised |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Upbeat
Management projects strong momentum, with Jane saying 'We are now decidedly on the front foot' and Mark describing Citi as 'on the upswing, with nothing but upside from here.'
Management AI read
Management highlighted that AI adoption is scaling, with proprietary tools used over 21 million times across 84 countries and adoption above 70%, and said the focus is shifting to using AI/automation to re-engineer 50+ large processes like KYC and loan underwriting to improve client experience and reduce expenses.
Investment and capacity
Management did not provide a capex figure but said it will continue investing in technology and transformation to support revenue growth, with capacity funded by productivity savings, lower severance, and reduced transformation costs while still targeting another year of positive operating leverage.
all 13 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Jane Fraser
Citi's advisory relationship with Boeing indicates ongoing deal activity, but provides no specific revenue or demand signal for Boeing.
Evidence
“Citi had a role in 15 out of the 25 largest investment banking transactions of the year and advised Boeing, Pfizer, Nippon Steel, Mars, Johnson & Johnson, Blackstone and TPG.”
Partners
Partners
Jane Fraser
Citi's wealth management partnership with BlackRock is deepening, indicating a push into asset management distribution that could benefit BlackRock's flows.
Evidence
“it includes notable partnerships, with industry leaders such as BlackRock that have enhanced our open architecture platform and are elevating the client experience.”
Partners
Jane Fraser
Citi's Costco co-brand card is contributing to growth, though specific metrics for Costco are not disclosed.
Evidence
“robust engagement from customers in spend, borrowing, and new account acquisitions across our proprietary offerings and our American Airlines and Costco partnerships.”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Mark Nathan
Citi's EMEA operations are seeing a notable slowdown in consumer spending and loan growth, particularly in its retail services business, which is partially attributed to lower foot traffic and sales at partner locations. — This indicates a potential softening in consumer credit demand, which may foreshadow lower payment volumes for network giants like Visa and Mastercard.
Evidence
“While growth has been impacted by foot traffic and sales at some of our partners, we continue to see strong returns across the retail services portfolio.”
Supply chain
Mark Nathan
Citi's Global Subsidiaries Group (TTS) is seeing a surge in new client onboarding, evidenced by a 24% growth in assets under custody and administration, which is partly driven by market valuations but also indicates significant new asset wins, particularly in North America. — This suggests Citi is taking market share from larger custody players like BNY Mellon and JPMorgan in a high-margin business, which could pressure their growth in this segment.
Evidence
“And we'd expect that momentum to continue, particularly with some of the big wins we've seen on security services side in North America in particular.”
Supply chain
Mark Nathan
Despite strong revenues, Citi's expenses rose 6% in Q4, driven by higher legal expenses and performance-related compensation in its Markets business, hinting at industry-wide cost pressures. — This suggests that major investment banks are facing rising costs for talent and legal matters, which could compress margins for competitors like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
Evidence
“Expenses increased 14%, primarily driven by higher legal expenses, compensation and benefits, technology, and volume-related expenses.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Citi's Global Subsidiaries Group (TTS) is seeing a surge in new client onboarding, evidenced by a 24% growth in assets under custody and administration, which is partly driven by market valuations but also indicates significant new asset wins, particularly in North America.
Citi's EMEA operations are seeing a notable slowdown in consumer spending and loan growth, particularly in its retail services business, which is partially attributed to lower foot traffic and sales at partner locations.
Despite strong revenues, Citi's expenses rose 6% in Q4, driven by higher legal expenses and performance-related compensation in its Markets business, hinting at industry-wide cost pressures.
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 13 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.