Chevron's Q4 2025 call was positive, highlighting record production, completion of major projects (including Hess acquisition), and strong free cash flow growth despite lower oil prices. Management provided an upbeat 2026 outlook with 7-10% production growth, continued cost reduction benefits, and stable TCO FCF guidance despite a recent power outage. 2025 marked record global and US production; Permian hit and sustained 1 million boe/d.
Chevron's Q4 2025 call was positive, highlighting record production, completion of major projects (including Hess acquisition), and strong free cash flow growth despite lower oil prices. Management provided an upbeat 2026 outlook with 7-10% production growth, continued cost reduction benefits, and stable TCO FCF guidance despite a recent power outage. 2025 marked record global and US production; Permian hit and sustained 1 million boe/d.
Chevron's Q4 2025 call was positive, highlighting record production, completion of major projects (including Hess acquisition), and strong free cash flow growth despite lower oil prices. Management provided an upbeat 2026 outlook with 7-10% production growth, continued cost…
2025 marked record global and US production; Permian hit and sustained 1 million boe/d.
Completed Hess acquisition, adding Gulf of America and Bakken assets, contributing to highest cash margins.
Adjusted FCF was $20B in 2025, up 35% YoY ex-asset sales, despite oil prices down ~15%.
Management said AI is beginning to take off across the business, used in supply chain negotiations and shale well-data analytics to drive cost and recovery improvements. There was no discussion of AI-driven product demand or revenue.
Management tone is clearly optimistic, citing record production, project ramp-ups, cost savings outperformance, and a strong balance sheet for 2026 growth.
Management reiterated strict capital discipline, with full-year organic capex in line with guidance and capital allocation focused on the highest-value opportunities. They emphasized cash generation over volume growth, including holding Permian at a plateau while continuing selective high-return projects in Guyana, the Gulf of America, the Eastern Mediterranean, and TCO.
Management framed 2026 as entering from 'a position of strength,' reiterated unchanged TCO free cash flow guidance, and expressed confidence in cost and production targets while acknowledging temporary operational issues.
“we're now realizing 20% improvement in 10-month cumulative recovery on the new whales. ... The programs to scale in other parts are underway, though. We don't have results that we can share with you today.”
“you might have seen we recently signed an MOU in Libya. ... We are engaged in discussions in both of those countries. It's been reported in the media. ... fiscal improvements have been critical”
“We expect the majority of the plant capacity to be online within the coming week and unconstrained production levels within February. ... Our full year 2026 guidance of $6 billion of Chevron share free cash flow from TCO at $70 Brent is un…”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flowTCO | FY2026 | $6B | $6B | MAINTAINED |
| Units | FY2026 | 7%–10% | 8.5% | GUIDED |
The integration of HESS assets is a core driver of Chevron's production and cash flow growth outlook for 2026.
“closing the HESS acquisition, creating a premier upstream portfolio with the highest cash margins in the industry”
… and in the U.S., supported by key milestones and strategic actions, including completion of the Future Growth Project at 10 geese, adding 260,000 barrels of oil per day, startup of Valleymore and Whale and the ramp-up of Anchor in the Gulf of America, advancing toward our goal of 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, achieving 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Permian, and shifting focus to free cash flow growth, and closing the HESS acquisition, creating a premier upstream portfolio with the highest cash margins in the industry. Additionally, in the downstream, we delivered the highest US refinery throughput in two decades, reflecting recent expansion projects and higher efficiency. This performance drove strong results, including industry-leading free cash flow growth. Excluding asset sales, adjusted free cash flow was up over 35% year over year, even with oil prices down nearly 15%. And for the fourth consecutive year, we returned record cash to shareholders, delivering on our consistent approach to superior shareholder returns. Chevron has been in Venezuela for over a century, and we remain committed to leveraging our deep expertise and …