Boeing's Q4 2025 call highlighted a recovery in deliveries and record backlog, but management tempered optimism with a $565M charge on the KC-46 tanker and revised 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1-3bn. There's substantial focus on the 777-9 engine durability issue, Spirit acquisition integration, and supply chain constraints. Ramping production: 737 at 42 per month, heading to 47; 787 stabilizing at 8 per month, targeted to rise to 10 later in 2026.
Boeing's Q4 2025 call highlighted a recovery in deliveries and record backlog, but management tempered optimism with a $565M charge on the KC-46 tanker and revised 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1-3bn. There's substantial focus on the 777-9 engine durability issue, Spirit acquisition integration, and supply chain constraints. Ramping production: 737 at 42 per month, heading to 47; 787 stabilizing at 8 per month, targeted to rise to 10 later in 2026.
Boeing's Q4 2025 call highlighted a recovery in deliveries and record backlog, but management tempered optimism with a $565M charge on the KC-46 tanker and revised 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1-3bn. There's substantial focus on the 777-9 engine durability issue, Spirit…
Ramping production: 737 at 42 per month, heading to 47; 787 stabilizing at 8 per month, targeted to rise to 10 later in 2026.
Reduced 2026 FCF guidance to $1-3bn, with a likely $1bn negative impact from Spirit acquisition.
took a $565M charge on the KC-46 tanker due to higher production support and supply chain costs.
Guidance is cautiously positive, with management forecasting cash flow positivity in 2026 and reiterating the $10bn free cash flow target, supported by production ramp-ups and services business, despite still significant risks.
Management is increasing capital expenditure, with ~$3 billion invested in 2025 and ~$4 billion expected in 2026, including Spirit. Investments fund future products and growth, particularly in St. Louis and Charleston, plus factory expansion for 787 and the new 737 North Line in Everett.
Management expresses genuine progress and confidence, but repeatedly notes 'we haven't fully turned the corner' and highlights significant remaining work on certification, production ramps, and defense programs.
“I think it will be a tougher rate ramp to go from 47 to 52 than say it was to go from 38 to 42.”
“The excess advances over time actually will burn down quicker than what we expect on the considerations, so that will take a little bit longer to burn down”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $4B | $4B | GUIDED |
| Free cash flow | FY2026 | $1B–$3B | $2B | GUIDED |
| Free cash flow | FY2027 | $10B | $10B | MAINTAINED |
| Units737 | FY2026 | $500B | $500B | GUIDED |
| Units787 | FY2026 | $90B–$100B | $95B | GUIDED |
Alaska's largest-ever order signals strengthening demand for Boeing narrowbody aircraft and customer confidence in Boeing's production recovery.
“Earlier this month, I joined Alaska Airlines as they announced their largest order ever.”
… touch on some important accomplishments in the quarter and the year that positioned us well for moving forward. In 2025, we methodically increased commercial production guided by our safety and quality plan. This enabled our team to deliver the most commercial airplanes since 2018. We delivered 600 airplanes and won more than 1,100 commercial orders for the year, making this one of our highest order totals ever as our portfolio continues to win in the market. Earlier this month, I joined Alaska Airlines as they announced their largest order ever. This was a clear reminder that our customers placed their trust in us with every order, and we must keep earning that trust by delivering safe, high-quality airplanes on time. To do this, the fundamental changes we've made this past year will serve as a base for continuous improvement as we look to increase commercial production. For example, we've simplified more than 5,100 work instruction documents. These are the instructions that the mechanics and inspectors use each day to do their jobs. These type of activities reduce complexity, support consistent performance, and strengthen factory health. On 737, production is stabilizing at …
Boeing's 737 rate ramp past 47 will shift from burning down excess inventory to needing supplier improvements, making it harder than the 38-42 move. — Suppliers like Spirit must make significant capacity and quality improvements to meet Boeing's future production goals.
“completing the acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems. Bringing together our companies reinforces our efforts to improve safety and quality throughout our factories, operations, and supply chain.”
… milestones are just a few where our programs are progressing and meeting our customer commitment. Importantly, we also ratified a new five-year labor agreement with our IAM representative workforce in St. Louis during this past quarter. Our team there is back to work, focusing on delivering and supporting our customers. Before the year end, we took another important step forward, supporting our production stability by completing the acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems. Bringing together our companies reinforces our efforts to improve safety and quality throughout our factories, operations, and supply chain. There's a lot of work ahead of us with an integration of this magnitude, and we have thoughtful, detailed plans in place to help enable a smooth transition for our new teammates while maintaining continuity for our customers and suppliers. We also successfully completed the $10.6 billion Jefferson sale, solidifying our balance sheet while retaining essential digital capabilities for our customers. With a streamlined portfolio, our service business is well positioned to support our global commercial and defense customers. BGS secured Boeing's largest ever commercial component …
A durability issue on the 777X engine has emerged, requiring collaboration with GE to find a solution; this could add schedule or cost complexity to the program.
“We have identified a potential durability issue during a recent inspection on the 777X engine, and we're working with GE to better understand that issue and finalize root cause and corrective actions.”
… the suite of design changes. We still anticipate certification for both the 737-7 and 737-10 in 2026. On 777-9 in the quarter, we received approval for TI-83 and continue to perform certification flight testing. TI-83 is a major phase of testing focused on avionics, environmental control systems, and the auxiliary power unit. And as I've said before, overall, the aircraft and engine continue to perform well. We have identified a potential durability issue during a recent inspection on the 777X engine, and we're working with GE to better understand that issue and finalize root cause and corrective actions. Importantly, as we work through this issue, we continue our certification flight testing, and we don't expect this to impact our delivery in 2027. Demand for the airplane remains strong, and we remain confident that the 777X will be the next flagship airplane for our global customers. Moving now to KC-46 Tanker. As we came through our quarterly process, we revised cost estimates for elements including the production support and supply chain, which Jay will cover in more detail. While it's disappointing to recognize another impact on this program, we are seeing encouraging …