2026 occupancy expected to dip in Q1 then grow in H2
ARE reported strong Q4 execution with $1.5B in dispositions and record leasing, but guided to a challenging 2026 with expect occupancy dip and lower same-property NOI. Management is focused on executing dispositions to strengthen the balance sheet. Q4 leasing volume of 1.2M sq ft was the highest in the last year, but was achieved with increased free rent concessions.
Buzzberg read2026 occupancy expected to dip in Q1 then grow in H2ARE reported strong Q4 execution with $1.5B in dispositions and record leasing, but guided to a challenging 2026 with expect occupancy dip and lower same-property NOI. Management is focused on executing dispositions to strengthen the balance sheet. Q4 leasing volume of 1.2M sq ft was the highest in the last year, but was achieved with increased free rent concessions.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
ARE reported strong Q4 execution with $1.5B in dispositions and record leasing, but guided to a challenging 2026 with expect occupancy dip and lower same-property NOI. Management is focused on executing dispositions to strengthen the balance sheet. Q4 leasing volume of 1.2M sq ft was the highest in the last year, but was achieved with increased free rent concessions.
The company reiterated 2026 FFO guidance of $1.40-$1.60 for Q4 2026, which they see as the trough.
Dispositions are a key focus, with a target of $2.9B for 2026, mostly in non-core assets and land.
Q1 2026 occupancy is expected to dip due to significant lease expirations, before recovering in the back half of the year.
Revenue$0.7544B
reported
EPS$2.16
reported
Gross margin69.18%
reported
Free cash flow$0.3124B
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
2026 occupancy expected to dip in Q1 then grow in H2
Guidance tone
02
Leasing
1.2M SF leased in Q4, highest in last year
Q4 leasing volume of 1.2M sq ft was the highest in the last year, but was achieved with increased free rent concessions.
03
Demand
Public biotech leasing remains minimal, critical for recovery
Management acknowledges ongoing challenges in the life science market and regulatory uncertainty, but highlights strong operational execution, green shoots in leasing, and confidence in executing the 2026 plan.
04
Pricing
Lease terms under pressure; free rent elevated
Dispositions are a key focus, with a target of $2.9B for 2026, mostly in non-core assets and land.
Demand & capex
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Public biotech leasing remains minimal, critical for recovery. Management acknowledges ongoing challenges in the life science market and regulatory uncertainty, but highlights strong operational execution, green shoots in leasing, and confidence in executing the 2026 plan.
Capex
Investment and capacity
Management reiterated plans to significantly reduce CapEx in 2026, including a 24% reduction in capitalized interest to $250 million, and to substantially complete the large-scale non-core disposition plan while reducing the size of its pipeline and land bank.
Tone · Cautiously Optimisti
Management acknowledges ongoing challenges in the life science market and regulatory uncertainty, but highlights strong operational execution, green shoots in leasing, and confidence in executing the 2026 plan.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Leasing of vacant space in Q4 doubled the prior quarterly average, but rent concessions are increasing, indicating that absorption is being driven by aggressive pricing rather than organic demand recovery.
“So really where we continue to see weakening in fundamentals is in the free rent category, and it's continued to elevate.”
A significant chunk of dispositions is being sold to residential developers, with over 55% of available land potentially having residential use, signaling a permanent reduction in lab supply in certain urban markets.
“more than 55% of our available land is either zoned or could have an allowable residential use and is in urban environments that could use the housing.”