Recession, ai bubble, dippy dip. What are your plans for the next 3 months?
u/Cow_cat11 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· March 21, 2026 at 04:24
· ⬆ 20 pts
· 💬 35 comments
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Summary
The author is holding cash and waiting for a 9% to 15% market pullback from recent highs to deploy capital into the broader market.
They anticipate a deflation of the AI, data center, and energy bubbles over the next 6-8 months, while noting that beaten-down large-cap SaaS stocks might rebound and provide a market floor.
Quality assessment: Speculation and market timing based on recent price action, historical pullback percentages, and macro fears, rather than deep fundamental value analysis.
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I've been holding the last two paychecks as cash in my self-directed brokerage (Empower) waiting for a dip. Added some SPY around 649 near close today, will add heavy if drops to the \~630 area, roughly a 9% pullback from the 697 high based on history last 3 digs
There is more down side dropping 10-15% from the high:
AI, data center, and energy stocks have run up 3–10x across big and small caps, that's a lot of air to give back. My thesis on these is 6-8months before it starts dropping slowly just the same HOOD and other ran up SaaS in 2024...HOOD jumped to 100 then 150 now \~70.
Add in the current global environment and possible recession risk, job creation or stagnation and a 10–15% drop from highs isn't out of the question.
The counterargument 9% from high is as good as it can get:
Large cap SaaS stocks have already been beaten down on AI fears and could rebound (I have nflx, orcle, adbe msft, rddt, rblx), which might put a floor under the broader market around that 9% level. Because a lot of these stocks are rotational diverse some money from area and move to the another area that is trending. But energy and defense stocks have gone crazy also...not sure how this plays out...keep going up cuz of the conflict or sharp drop once it the clouds are over...or will it be like russ-ukr that will last for years...but that leads back to more downside.
What is everyone plan for next (1-3 months) and (4-6months)? What stocks are you considering to value add on the next rotation of trend/hype (seems that is how the stock market works now).
SPY has pulled back from its 697 high to around 649. Historical patterns from the last three dips suggest a ~9% pullback (around the 630 level) is a strong support zone and buying opportunity. Scale into SPY on dips, buying heavily if it reaches the 630 area. Global recession risks, job stagnation, or prolonged geopolitical conflicts could drive the market down further to a 10-15% drop.
AI and data center stocks have run up 3–10x across big and small caps. These valuations are highly stretched ("a lot of air to give back") and are likely to follow the pattern of previous hype cycles like the 2024 SaaS run-up. Expect a slow deflation and downside in AI/tech high-flyers over the next 6-8 months. AI hype continues longer than expected or sector rotation keeps the broader tech index elevated.
Large-cap SaaS stocks (like MSFT, ADBE, ORCL) have already been beaten down due to AI fears. Because they are rotationally diverse, money leaving overhyped sectors may rotate back into these established, beaten-down names. Monitor large-cap SaaS for a rebound as capital rotates out of overextended AI hardware/energy plays. Broader market recession drags down all tech stocks regardless of previous corrections.
This Reddit post, published March 21, 2026,
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