$6 per gallon of gas is coming (actual analysis + graphs included, puts on my degree)
u/Kaiwa1 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· March 09, 2026 at 03:20
· ⬆ 804 pts
· 💬 270 comments
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Summary
The author presents a regression model correlating crude oil prices with national average gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation. The model shows a high correlation (R^2 = 0.94).
The author's thesis is that if crude oil futures (CL) return to their 2008 highs of ~$147/barrel, the national average price for gasoline will reach approximately $5.60/gallon.
This is a data-driven speculative analysis. While it uses historical data and a statistical model, the core thesis relies on a future event (oil reaching $147/barrel) driven by an unspecified "conflict".
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Hello degens,
so with the price of oil futures climbing, I thought I'd try to get a good estimate for what kind of price we should be expecting at the pump in the near future. I pulled data from the Energy Information Agency, the St. Louis Fed, and Yahoo Finance to correlate the price of oil barrels to the average national price of gas, adjusting for inflation. Running a quick regression model, we get the following:
https://preview.redd.it/uwijtt7ttxng1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e0839f36f11224b3a47fbcb0dc0af6654aec6d2
As expected, the price of gas is pretty tightly correlated with the price of oil. Adding inflation into the mix, we get that the model can accurately predict the price of gas from the price of oil and inflation (R\^2 = 0.94), dating all the way back to 2000.
https://preview.redd.it/79s46oolyxng1.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=efd3aefc730f1d61d430e18efa03871e0abdc95f
So the real question is, if we go back to the highs of July 2008 of $147.27/barrel, what does that give us? The results are.... um.... not great. **This model predicts** **$5.60/gallon** if we do hit get to those highs again, a doubling YTD. These are national averages, so your local gas station might be slightly higher or lower, but that should give you a rough idea for what to expect. I think it will take some time for the increases in price to fully propagate to the pump, but if the conflict drags on for long enough, we might be hitting those. I had previously calculated that it would hit $9, but turns out i'm bad at math. Puts on University of illinois engineering degrees.
POSITIONS:
2009 Honda CRV and 1999 Acura Integra full gas tanks. Buy short dated CL futures.
The price of gasoline is highly correlated with the price of crude oil, and oil futures are currently climbing. If the geopolitical conflict mentioned continues, crude oil prices could return to their 2008 highs, causing a significant spike in oil futures. The author explicitly suggests buying short-dated crude oil (CL) futures to profit from the anticipated price increase. The underlying "conflict" could de-escalate, leading to a drop in oil prices. Increased US production ("drill baby drill") or a global economic slowdown could reduce demand and suppress prices.
High and rising gasoline prices increase the total cost of ownership for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This makes the value proposition of electric vehicles, which are cheaper to "fuel," more attractive to consumers, potentially accelerating EV adoption. Multiple commenters suggest that rising gas prices are a bullish catalyst for EV makers like Tesla, as consumers seek alternatives. Broader economic downturn could curb new car sales, regardless of powertrain. Increased electricity costs could diminish the TCO advantage of EVs.
This Reddit post, published March 09, 2026,
features u/Kaiwa1
discussing CL, TSLA.
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