Could US/Iran situation be the black swan event

Summary

• The post speculates whether a potential conflict between the US and Iran could be a "black swan" event, driving up oil prices and causing significant inflation.
• The author's thesis is that rising oil prices from a prolonged conflict could cripple an already fragile consumer, leading to a market downturn as inflation spikes.
• Quality assessment: This is pure speculation and noise. The author misunderstands the definition of a "black swan" event, a point heavily corrected by the community, who argue the risk is well-known and at least partially priced in.