▶ Full Post Text
**TL;DR at the bottom-- This is a follow-up to the “Analysis and Positions” post Feb15**
# Actuals, Analysts, & Estimates:
* **Revenue: $68.13 billion vs $66.23 billion Cons. vs my est. $67.05 billion**
* **EPS: $1.62 vs $1.54 Cons. vs my est. $1.56**
* **Q4 Revenue Guide: $78 billion (+/- 2%) vs $72 billion Cons. vs my est. $76 billion**
* **Q4 Margin Guide: 75% vs my est. 75%**
The biggest drivers of revenue variance were underforecasting Data Center (-1.06B) and Prof. Visualization (-$0.47B), partially offset by overforecasting Gaming (+$0.37B).
While gross margin came in exactly as modeled and shares outstanding were within 1 million shares, my forecast overestimated total expenses, driven by variance in Non-Operating Expense (+$0.69B). This is naturally an opaque area of expenses with fluctuating tax rates and other highly variable factors.
My EPS forecast was exceeded by $0.06 due to higher-than-expected revenue and lower-than-expected expenses.
Guidance of $78 billion +/- 2% outpaced my estimate of $76 billion and still did not include sales to China. Margin guidance was in line with expectations given visible supply commitments.
# Comparison Visualized:
[Segment-Level Actuals vs Estimates and EPS Calculation](https://preview.redd.it/n64prhjyxfmg1.jpg?width=1456&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7ff8b78de0ba874b03a5a8e630c878414458f36)
Data Center revenue sustained >20% QoQ growth to $62.31 billion, driven by strong compute and network demand. I modeled closer to 19.5% sequential growth, considering supply and energy constraints.
The decline in Gaming revenue was sharper than expected, to $3.73 billion. CFO Kress stated that Gaming will continue to struggle in the coming quarters in her commentary, “We expect supply constraints to be a headwind to Gaming in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and beyond.”
Professional Visualization might deserve its own section moving forward, as 74% sequential growth to $1.32 billion is more than double that of Robotics & Auto. This is the newest segment to eclipse $1 billion quarterly revenue, driven by the Microsoft (previously Activision Blizzard) partnership for creative workflows mentioned in the “Full Estimates” post. Kress’s commentary also noted that Blackwell's strength positively contributed.
# Performance Tracking:
[Quarterly and Average Error vs Actuals Last 5 Quarters](https://preview.redd.it/acmf0pk4yfmg1.png?width=478&format=png&auto=webp&s=57016d0eb461eda90c6e7775f3eb62fa660ef9a0)
After five quarters of forecasting, my total average error remains below 2% for both EPS and Revenue. The “Street” is represented by the average of 40+ professional analysts and has been consistently conservative. I am committed to maintaining an error rate of below 2% and have identified weaknesses I can improve on in both revenue and expense modeling.
It is worth noting that while estimates have been during a “bull cycle” for semiconductors, tricky macro headwinds and accounting moves suggest these results are not simply due to being bullish.
# Positioning:
As of the “Full Estimates” post, the portfolio held 200 shares at an average cost of $127 and no covered calls. The update mentioned buying the $185 strike call while the stock was in the middle of the range ($182.5), and buying more before earnings if the stock traded at the bottom of the range, or selling a $187.5 strike call if the stock was up before the print.
The “Final Estimates” post (not on WSB) mentioned closing all but two of those spreads after the pre-earnings rally. I closed the remaining two before the print in favor of locking in realized gain above \~$192 per share. However, I did reopen a $195/$197.5 call spread that resulted in a loss of $0.9 premium.
After the results, I decided to sell 100 shares at \~$187.5. While impressed with the results, I was not impressed with the sharp rejection above $200 per share, and can see that being a strong resistance even after clearing the $190 area.
[Most Expensive Shares \(\~$142.5\) Sold at \~$187.5](https://preview.redd.it/jikkiezjyfmg1.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98319edb673986b1865b5ecef041f026f1b8c709)
I am still bullish with 100 shares at an average cost of $111.50, but believe selling $205 calls will be prudent when the stock reaches the top of the range again, given how sharp the rejection was at $200. Overall, the range is still established.
[Current Position](https://preview.redd.it/wcwa806pyfmg1.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d8e11abdc17da6c0f398d9c0bc4284ab61a4174)
# Earnings Trades (Realized P/L):
[Every NVDA Trade Completed Since Last Post](https://preview.redd.it/6llp540nzfmg1.png?width=386&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec9d6c0a18f7c202223f49f56d29b7583974bd57)
# Valuation:
Even with the beat and raise, the stock could not break the range it has traded in since July. Fundamentally, it is a better value now than in the summer at the same price, given the earnings growth, but skeptics will argue that the price in July reflected growth today.
While revenue and profitability continue to grow, value multiples can fluctuate with market sentiment. The press release cited FY26 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.77, and over the next 24 hours, the stock traded for as much as \~43x trailing earnings on the push above $203 and as little as \~37x those same earnings at the closing bell. While strong growth brings down the forward multiples, those are even more affected by swings in sentiment.
Current FY27 estimates for EPS range from $7.5 to $9.5, which at the midpoint and the current stock price puts the forward PE around 21x.
Investors who believe in $NVDA’s continued growth should be attracted to current prices, while those who believe the stock is overvalued can reasonably argue the current stock price already reflects lofty expectations.
I will continue to post updates in the “quiet period” between earnings cycles. There is no fixed schedule, but I will cover any material updates. Thank you for reading. I am a human, and this is not financial advice.
# TL;DR:
* Data Center and Prof. Visualization are strong, while Gaming is weak
* My average error remains <2% for both EPS and Revenue after 5 quarters
* Trading Range > Earnings Beat
* Fundamentals Improving
* Closed 100 Shares @ \~$187.5