LULA PODE PERDER EM 2026? A PESQUISA QUE ACENDEU O ALERTA NO GOVERNO LULA | Market Makers #356

Summary

Rafael Cortez analyzes the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scenario, discussing new polls, the fragmentation of the right, and Lula's declining popularity. He argues the election remains highly competitive and that the opposition has a real chance if it unifies. The conversation also touches on the role of the Supreme Court and the potential impact of government policies.

• New Real Time Big Data poll shows Lula leading in first round but technically tied in second-round simulations against various right-wing candidates.
• Rafael Cortez sees a polarized electorate and expects a tight election similar to 2022, with Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro as the most likely second-round matchup.
• The right-wing field is fragmented with multiple candidates (Zema, Caiado, Renan Santos, etc.) potentially helping Lula by splitting the anti-PT vote.
• Cortez believes Flávio Bolsonaro has not yet established his own political identity, relying heavily on his father's name and facing high rejection.
• The government's low approval ratings and economic headwinds create a window of opportunity for the opposition, but execution remains key.
• Government measures like Desenrola and tax revisions aim to stem further loss of popularity ahead of the campaign.
• The Supreme Court and the Banco Master scandal are seen as issues that could benefit the opposition by further eroding government support.
• Cortez assesses that Lula is likely to run for re-election despite speculation about alternative candidates like Haddad.