Before the global financial crisis, Chinese economist used to talk about the problem of "dual surpluses" -- a big financial surplus from FDI inflows, and a big current account surplus. The result was massive (and problematic) reserve accumulation. Just sayin '

Original source ↗ | February 12, 2026 at 17:33 UTC | Twitter - @brad_setser

IDEA 1 TICKER: SPY (or S&P 500 index) DIRECTION: short THESIS: Historical patterns suggest a significant market drawdown (average 34%) after 115 S&P 500 stocks decline 7%+ in 8 sessions, despite the index being only 1.5% below its all-time high. SPEAKER: @michaelbatnick TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA 2 TICKER: CNY, KPW, TWD (or related FX pairs/ETFs) DIRECTION: short THESIS: Despite China's massive and growing trade surplus, the yuan and other major Asian surplus country currencies show persistent weakness in broad real terms, suggesting a continued

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Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
SPY	SHORT	@michaelbatnick	Historical patterns suggest a significant market drawdown (average 34%) after 115 S&P 500 stocks decline 7%+ in 8 sessions, despite the index being only 1.5% below its all-time high.	—