turned $8k into $18k betting on $MU earnings and now I'm YOLOing into April calls because apparently I have a gambling problem
u/Fearless-Swimmer-859 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· March 12, 2026 at 18:38
· ⬆ 159 pts
· 💬 52 comments
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Summary
The author, u/Fearless-Swimmer-859, details a successful trade on Micron ($MU) earnings, turning an $8k investment into $18k. The author is now doubling down on this position.
The core thesis is that Micron is an undervalued and essential "picks and shovels" play on the AI boom, as GPUs require massive amounts of its HBM and DRAM products. The author believes the market is underappreciating the sustained, non-cyclical demand for memory driven by AI infrastructure spending.
This is primarily speculation driven by a recent win, supported by a high-level narrative and some financial data. It lacks deep fundamental analysis or a rigorous examination of counter-arguments, fitting the typical r/wallstreetbets "YOLO" style.
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So I've been bullish on Micron for a while. Found a DD post last week that basically confirmed everything I already thought, it hit, made bank.
https://preview.redd.it/cesuq8cesnog1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=310f33332f2223f6184a54455ff2f29ef5277aac
Normal person takes profits and goes outside to touch grass. I bought calls instead.
**why micron**
Everyone's buying NVDA for AI exposure. Fine whatever. But GPUs don't work without memory. Like literally cannot function. Every AI server, every LLM running inference, every hyperscaler buildout - all of it needs enormous amounts of DRAM and HBM just to run. There are three companies that make this stuff. Micron is one of them.
This isn't a "future demand" story. The demand is here right now and they literally can't make enough product.
**the numbers**
Last quarter:
* $13.6B revenue (was $8.7B a year ago)
* $4.78 EPS (was $1.79 a year ago)
* $8B+ operating cash flow in one quarter
They guided next quarter to $18.7B revenue and \~$8.40 EPS.
Stock is around $388 right now. Thats like 12x forward earnings for a company that is sold out of HBM through all of 2026, already has orders for HBM4, and watching DRAM prices up 90% quarter over quarter.
HBM market goes from $35B this year to $100B by 2028 and Micron is already sold out of the product. The stock just kinda sits there.
**the bear case**
yeah memory is cyclical, boom bust, 2018 was brutal, heard it. The difference now is AI infrastructure spend doesn't really have an off season. Every GPU that gets sold needs memory. Models keep getting bigger and need more memory. New data centers need more memory. The floor on demand is just permanently higher than it used to be.
The actual real bear case is AI capex slows down across the board. That would hurt. But that means NVDA, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all pump the brakes at the same time. Maybe, idk, bet that way if you want.
**positions**
* 300 shares avg $405.20
* 2x $450C 4/17 avg $56.60
* Already cashed out $10,199 from Polymarket
not financial advice im just a guy who got lucky once and is now pressing his luck