Walmart's ($WMT) Valuation Still Doesn't Make Any Fucking Sense
u/ini0n ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· March 10, 2026 at 04:24
· ⬆ 185 pts
· 💬 106 comments
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Summary
The author argues that Walmart's ($WMT) valuation is unjustifiably high, with a P/E ratio of ~45 despite stagnant revenue (~5%) and EBITDA (~3%) growth.
The core thesis is that WMT is mispriced as a high-growth tech stock due to its e-commerce and ad revenue potential, but the financials do not support this narrative. The author believes a market rotation out of "safe" consumer defensive stocks will trigger a significant price correction.
Quality assessment: This is well-researched DD for the subreddit's standards, incorporating DCF models, financial data analysis (revenue, margins), and market context. However, it relies on several assumptions and a strong contrarian viewpoint against prevailing market sentiment.
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[After asking you lot](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1rl17jn/someone_fucking_explain_why_walmart_wmt_is_at_47x/) why Walmart tripled in 3 years and was now trading at a 45 PE - I went away and did some DD to decide if worth investing my life savings in puts.
Quick recap: Walmart has stagnant revenue growth around 5%, slowing EBITDA growth around 3% - yet tripled on hype it's a tech stock because it has a website now. Despite tech stocks having an awful few months??
Walmart is Schrödinger’s stock: somehow both a bond proxy defensive that deserves a dirt-cheap discount rate and a hyper-growth monster that deserves a nosebleed multiple.
https://preview.redd.it/ak7kj0mvu4og1.png?width=847&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e35a89957d06975015f16b697d285b3d8740819
An [analyst downgraded the stock](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/walmart-stock-falls-after-analyst-downgrade-market-selloff-93CH-4296292) shortly after the post. Since then, Walmart has started to underperform other consumer defensives which is what you want to see maintained for the short thesis to pan out.
The shorting theory is consumer defensive are overbought due to recent events, and Walmart is extremely overbought as one of the leading defensives, once consumer defensive rerates, Walmart will lead the plunge down.
[Market Sector Performance Year To Date](https://preview.redd.it/u3vj617vx4og1.png?width=561&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f12335bdbc32fed5a4f2aec21a3dbf455f04fb7)
Most agreed Walmart's valuation was goofy, but I investigated the theories people put up. Walmart being a real estate play didn't seem to be the reason, it has $100b in shareholder equity on a $1t market cap.
Basically, to justify the current stock price, buy side analysts are predicting massive margin growth from the Walmart website generating high margin ad revenue.
The Walmart website does have strong growth, growing from around $25b in 2019 to $105b last year. Already a significant chunk of its $700b in total revenue.
Despite this growth, since 2019 the EBIT Margin has stayed around 4% and total revenue growth has remained around 5%. Hasn't moved the needle so far.
[EBIT Margin YOY Growth](https://preview.redd.it/giqexq6v05og1.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=42378edf778c5a2f9eab85968b077e7b6c94b51e)
[Revenue YOY Growth - Factoring In Inflation Pretty Low](https://preview.redd.it/npbcpu8g85og1.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=293eab85ebb17c4320b2cbb878b926ae1209cc71)
Amazon is estimated to generate $30b in profit from its ecommerce business (excludes AWS). Even if you assume Walmart completely kills Amazon, you get $50b combined profit. Walmart would then be trading at 20 times earnings which is historically high.
Doing a discounted cash flow valuation, if Walmart muddles along at current trend it's 68% overvalued.
[DCF Analysis - Current Trend Forecast](https://preview.redd.it/vouu7sfu45og1.png?width=1287&format=png&auto=webp&s=411661166e9222f907358e9163721df2dd0d8b0c)
[DCF Analysis - Current Trend Assumptions](https://preview.redd.it/69io04i755og1.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=595242e69eda39ed0d7bf7003737fd2feda8816e)
If you put in some rosier assumptions, assuming Walmart's online business really takes off - assuming a lower cost of capital, revenue growth acceleration and margin acceleration. You still get 17% overvalued, basically there was some justification for the valuation late last year, but this year's surge is goofy.
[DCF Analysis - Rosy Forecast](https://preview.redd.it/67uyu4cj55og1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=13998bef71b81ca573618e14339247c24b6e2117)
[DCF Analysis - Rosy Assumptions](https://preview.redd.it/a2jmhw6w55og1.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=605a7659c6bd5e7839d71e60d0ed48ede56c437d)
Insider's may agree as they are selling.
https://preview.redd.it/wboht3sg75og1.png?width=836&format=png&auto=webp&s=3193f82c9fe17bad49ce098469998a6d71b28294
I do think Walmart will rerate at some point in the next year or two, their recent guidance wasn't optimistic. Once the market stabilises and AI panic subsides money will shift out of consumer defensives. Walmart is priced like a growth stock but has almost no growth.
I've bought some puts, is now the perfect time... well I'm a retard so probably not. But here's hoping.
These are my $WMT positions:
https://preview.redd.it/fxyiebw375og1.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=fde2562c40d6f4832ec772019f9f68043038f2ec