My 2026 Stock Picks (as of March) Based on My Screening Framework
u/Darkguard1733 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· March 05, 2026 at 06:36
· ⬆ 36 pts
· 💬 13 comments
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Summary
The author presents a list of "Wide Moat" and "Narrow Moat" stocks that have passed their proprietary fundamental screening framework as of March 2026.
The author's thesis is that by combining strict fundamental screening, a qualitative check for conviction, and technical analysis for entry timing, one can build a portfolio of durable companies while minimizing risk.
This is a well-structured post outlining a personal investment framework and watchlist. It is not deep-dive due diligence (DD) on any single company but rather the output of a systematic screening process.
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If you’re curious about how I do my fundamental analysis and the criteria I use, please read my previous thread first. [Click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/w87UgmvkGV)
A quick clarification:
Just because a company is undervalued with strong fundamentals does not mean I buy it immediately.
As mentioned in my previous post, I optimize my entry using technical analysis. If the price looks extended or peaked in the short term, I prefer to wait for a better entry point.
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Additional Step: Qualitative Check
Even after screening with strict criteria, I still manually read about the company.
If I have personal doubts or lack conviction, I simply won’t invest.
I believe emotions and conviction matter in investing. I want to hold companies I truly believe in — not just companies that passed a spreadsheet filter.
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Example: Why I’m Not Buying NVDA (For Now)
A good example is NVDA.
My thesis for NVDA:
• It passes all my fundamental and moat criteria
• It’s one of the strongest companies I’ve screened
Valuation-wise, it falls into Scenario 2 in my framework:
• PE > 30
• But lower than its 5-year average
On paper, that means mid-value.
However, I personally view NVDA as a special case.
I believe it may still be overvalued due to:
• AI hype
• Possible over-optimistic AI revenue projections
Based on my technical analysis, I believe a better entry could appear in the future.
My plan:
• I would consider buying around $150
• Ideally when PE reaches \\\~25 or lower
• Then DCA into support zones
There’s also cyclical risk, since semiconductors are currently near all-time highs, and technically the sector looks close to a peak.
If NVDA keeps running higher, that’s fine.
I don’t dwell on missed opportunities.
My goal is consistent growth with minimized risk, which is why I’m not buying NVDA for now.
Of course — this is not financial advice, just my personal perspective.
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Stocks That Passed My Screening
Below are companies that passed Fundamental Analysis Stage 1 and Stage 2.
These are watchlist candidates, not immediate buys.
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Wide Moat Companies (Passed Both Fundamental Stages)
AAPL
ADBE
AMAT
ANET
ASML
BLK
CDNS
CME
CPRT
GOOGL
INTU
JNJ
LRCX
META
MKTX
MSFT
NVDA
SNPS
SPGI
TSM
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Narrow Moat Companies (Passed Both Fundamental Stages)
A
ADI
ASR
BIIB
CHKP
ESNT
EW
FINV
GNTX
HNNA
INVA
LOPE
MNST
MTG
NMIH
QLYS
REGN
SEIC
UI
UTHR
VRTX
VVV
WTM
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Companies That Also Look Undervalued (Based on My PE Framework)
Wide Moat + Undervalued
ADBE
CPRT
INTU
JNJ
MKTX
MSFT
NVDA
SPGI
Narrow Moat + Undervalued
A
ASR
CHKP
FINV
GNTX
HNNA
NMIH
QLYS
SEIC
VVV
WTM
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Important Notes
This screening is based on data from late February – March 2026.
Things can change:
• Valuations change
• Fundamentals evolve
• Moats can erode
So please treat this as ideas for your watchlist, not buy recommendations.
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Final Thoughts
My goal with this framework is simple:
Invest in the most durable companies while minimizing risk as much as possible.
My portfolio is 60% VWRA 35% Widemoat 5% narrow moat.
This method may sacrifice some opportunity cost, but I’m okay with that. I prefer consistency and downside protection over chasing every hot stock.
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Thanks for reading this long post 🙏
I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts.
Feel free to:
• Share your own picks
• Critique my framework
• Ask why certain stocks didn’t make the list
I’m always open to learning from different perspectives.
PS: I used ChatGPT to format this. Also not financial advice 🙏
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NVDA passes the author's fundamental and moat criteria but is considered a "special case" due to potential overvaluation from AI hype and optimistic revenue projections. The semiconductor sector also appears technically near a peak. The current valuation and technical picture present an unfavorable risk/reward profile. A significant price correction would be needed to offer a better entry point that aligns with the author's risk management principles. The author is explicitly avoiding NVDA at its current price, preferring to wait for a potential drop to around $150 or a P/E ratio of ~25 before considering an investment. The primary risk is opportunity cost. The AI trend could be stronger and more sustained than anticipated, causing NVDA's stock to continue rising without providing the desired entry point.
Adobe (ADBE) is listed as a "Wide Moat" company that has passed both stages of the author's fundamental analysis screening. It is also explicitly identified as "Undervalued" based on the author's P/E framework. By passing the author's strict quality and valuation filters, ADBE is identified as a high-quality company potentially available at an attractive price, making it a prime candidate for a long position. ADBE is a strong candidate for the author's portfolio, pending a qualitative check for conviction and a favorable entry point determined by technical analysis. The screening is based on historical data; future fundamentals could weaken. The moat could be challenged by new competitors or technological shifts (e.g., generative AI).
Microsoft (MSFT) is categorized as a "Wide Moat" company that has successfully passed the author's two-stage fundamental screening process. It is also highlighted on the "Undervalued" list. The combination of a strong competitive advantage (wide moat), solid fundamentals, and an attractive valuation makes MSFT a high-priority investment candidate according to the author's system. MSFT is a top-tier company on the author's watchlist. An investment is contingent upon the author's personal conviction and finding an optimal entry point via technical analysis. Regulatory scrutiny could impact growth. The valuation, while deemed attractive by the author's framework, could still be high by other metrics. Competition in cloud and AI remains intense.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is identified as a "Wide Moat" company that passed the author's fundamental screens and is also explicitly listed as "Undervalued." As a high-quality, defensive company with a strong moat trading at what the author considers an undervalued price, JNJ fits the core criteria of the investment framework for a long-term holding. JNJ is a prime candidate for inclusion in the author's portfolio, subject to a final qualitative review and a technically opportune entry point. Ongoing litigation risks (e.g., talc lawsuits) could create headline risk and financial liabilities. The pharmaceutical pipeline's success is uncertain and crucial for future growth.
This Reddit post, published March 05, 2026,
features u/Darkguard1733
discussing NVDA, ADBE, MSFT, JNJ.
4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.