Kraft Heinz Pauses Split, Paramount Sweetens Warner Bros. Bid | Bloomberg Deals 2/11/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 19:56 UTC  |  44:38  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Dani Burger — Anchor, Bloomberg
Michelle Davis — Reporter, Bloomberg
Mandeep Singh — Tech Analyst, Bloomberg
Bill Ford — Chairman & CEO, General Atlantic
Emily Miller — Partner, Bain & Company
Josh Benn — Managing Director, Kroll
Holden Spaht — Managing Partner, Thoma Bravo

Summary

  • AI Capex Supercycle: Hyperscalers (Amazon, Google) are forecasting 2026 spending that exceeds the combined spend of all top 5 tech firms in 2022. Total projected Capex for the group is $660 billion.
  • Software Valuation Reset: Private equity leaders argue the "AI kills SaaS" narrative is overblown. Valuations have compressed from 10x revenue (2021) to 4x revenue (2026), creating a massive buying opportunity for "System of Record" companies with high retention.
  • GLP-1 Consumption Shift: Data shows GLP-1 users reduce overall grocery spend by 4%, specifically targeting salty snacks and sugary sodas, while increasing spend on fresh produce and poultry.
  • Media M&A Heating Up: A hostile bidding environment is emerging for Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount, driven by activist investors (Ancora) and sweetened deal terms ($30/share for Paramount).
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Duke Energy (DUK) signed deals for 4.5 Gigawatts of power with Microsoft and Compass. Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon) are projecting $660B in Capex for 2026. The "AI Arms Race" has moved from a software story to a physical infrastructure story. Utilities with capacity (Duke) are the bottleneck and guaranteed beneficiaries, while Hyperscalers are signaling infinite demand for compute. LONG. Buy the picks and shovels (Utilities) and the aggressive builders (Hyperscalers). Regulatory caps on power usage or AI monetization failure. 2:36
LONG Bill Ford
Chairman, Ford Motor Company
Software valuations have compressed from 10x revenue to 4x revenue. Thoma Bravo notes that portfolio companies with 97% renewal rates are accelerating, not shrinking, despite AI fears. The market is indiscriminately selling software on the fear that AI replaces it. The smart money (PE) sees AI as a feature that enhances "System of Record" incumbents rather than displacing them. LONG. Valuation reset offers a margin of safety for high-retention B2B SaaS. "Thin" wrapper applications actually being displaced by AI agents.
MU
LONG Norah Mulinda
Bloomberg Market Reporter
Micron CEO stated that memory supply is likely to remain tight beyond 2026. Extended supply tightness in a commodity market (memory chips) guarantees pricing power and margin expansion for the producers. LONG. Sudden drop in consumer electronics demand.
SHORT Emily Miller
Partner, Bain & Company
GLP-1 users reduce grocery spend by 4%, specifically targeting high-margin junk food categories. As penetration doubles to 15%, volume declines in salty snacks and soda will become structural headwinds that pricing power cannot offset. SHORT. Companies successfully pivot product lines to "healthier" versions. 30:49
LONG Michelle Davis
Reporter, Bloomberg
Activist investor Ancora has built a stake in WBD to oppose a Netflix merger and force engagement with Paramount. Paramount has sweetened its bid to $30/share plus a $2B breakup fee and delay penalties. Activist involvement combined with a "sweetened" hostile bid creates a floor for the stock price and accelerates price discovery. The $30/share offer sets a clear valuation benchmark. LONG. The M&A friction is forcing value realization. Regulatory hurdles or deal collapse leading to a reversion to pre-bid lows. 1:13
BX
LONG Ryan Gould
Head of Content, Blockworks
Blackstone is investing another $100M in Anthropic (total stake $1B) via its retail-focused wealth products. Blackstone is successfully democratizing access to private AI unicorns for "wealthy mom and pop" investors, creating a new fee-generating growth engine distinct from traditional buyouts. LONG. Valuation mark-downs in private AI assets. 6:40
AVOID Norah Mulinda
Bloomberg Market Reporter
Robinhood reported lower Q4 profit, weighing on results. In a bull market with high retail engagement, a profit miss suggests structural cost or monetization issues rather than just cyclical headwinds. AVOID. Unexpected crypto rally driving transaction volume. 20:39