BlackRock's Rieder Sees 10-Year Yield Dropping to 4%
Speakers
Rick Rieder
— CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock
Summary
Rick Rieder discusses the disconnect between equity and bond markets, arguing that equities have more upside due to technicals, while the 10-year Treasury yield will decline to 4% as mortgage rates need to come down. He also comments on corporate credit attractiveness, Fed policy, and the impact of AI on productivity and labor.
- Rieder sees equities having more upside than bonds due to limited equity supply and strong cash flows.
- He expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4% over the next six months to a year.
- Corporate credit yields are attractive and default risk is low given strong nominal GDP growth.
- He believes the Fed can cut rates because rate-sensitive sectors are in recession.
- AI-driven productivity revolution will cause labor disruption for a couple of years.
- Rieder supports less forward guidance from the Fed for healthier market adjustment.
- He currently stays in the belly of the yield curve but will go long duration when mortgage rate catalysts emerge.
Trade Ideas
10-year yield will drop to 4%.
Rieder believes the 10-year Treasury yield will decline to 4% over the next six months to a year because mortgage rates need to come down and the back end of the curve can remain contained. Despite fundamental steepening forces, technicals such as the concentration of short-dated debt prevent a steepening, allowing long-end yields to fall. He views inflation as transitory and expects productivity gains to help. He is currently positioned in the belly but will extend duration once catalysts emerge.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 05, 2026, features Rick Rieder discussing 10-Year Treasury Yield. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Rick Rieder · Tickers: 10-Year Treasury Yield