April Jobs Report Locks in Fed Stalemate, PGIM's Collins Says
Summary
Michael Collins of PGIM Fixed Income says the April jobs report locks in a Fed stalemate, with labor data showing wage disinflation and productivity gains that do not add to inflation. He sees opportunity in the belly of the Treasury curve and recommends being overweight the 5- to 20-year part.
- April jobs report solidifies the Fed's indefinite hold.
- Wage growth continues in a disinflationary trend since the Covid peak.
- Productivity improvements are a positive story in the data.
- Energy and supply shortages, not labor, are driving inflation.
- Fed can only control demand, not supply-side inflation factors.
- Opportunity is in the belly of the yield curve, 5-20 year segment.
- PGIM Fixed Income is overweight that part of the curve, citing upward slope and value.
Trade Ideas
Overweight 5-20 year Treasury curve
The April jobs report locks in a Fed stalemate, with wage disinflation and productivity improvements suggesting no inflationary pressure from labor. This supports a positioning overweight the belly of the yield curve, specifically the 5- to 20-year part, where the curve is upward sloping and offers value.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 08, 2026, features Mike Collins discussing US Treasuries (5-20 year segment). 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike Collins · Tickers: US Treasuries (5-20 year segment)