Does Bitcoin Win or Lose In The Great AI-Tech Shakeout?

Speakers

Zack Pandl — Director of Research at Grayscale Investments

Summary

Bitcoin is currently trading like "Frontier Tech" (correlated with Quantum Computing and Software) rather than "Digital Gold," driven by risk-on/risk-off flows rather than debasement fears.
The recent Gold and Silver rally was a "squeeze" driven by tariff fears and inventory shortages in London/NY, which has likely overshot; a short-term correction is expected.
The market is moving from a "shoot first, ask questions later" sell-off in Tech to a "Differentiation Trade," where assets that complement AI (like Crypto) will separate from those disrupted by it.
Grayscale is advising clients to allocate to three specific crypto verticals ("The 3 Ps"): Privacy, Prediction Markets, and Perpetual Futures, alongside Stablecoins/Tokenization.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
ETH /SOL /LINK /ZEC /HYPE	LONG	Zach Pandl Grayscale	Zack states investors should focus on "mega trends" in crypto: Regulatory clarity driving Stablecoins/Tokenization, and "The 3 Ps" (Privacy, Prediction Markets, Perpetual Futures). He explicitly names Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, Zcash, and Hyperliquid as beneficiaries. While the broader market is de-risking, capital will concentrate in protocols that provide the infrastructure for these specific high-growth verticals. ETH/SOL/LINK capture the tokenization/stablecoin layer, while ZEC/HYPE capture the innovation in privacy and derivatives. LONG these specific assets as structural winners of the "Differentiation Trade." Continued correlation with the broader Tech/Growth equity sell-off.	12:52
GOLD /SLV	SHORT	Zach Pandl Grayscale	"We probably overshoot shot by a significant margin on speculative capital inflows... my own view would be precious metals trade kind of weak for the short term." The recent parabolic move in metals was driven by a temporary "squeeze" (tariff threats moving inventory from London to NY) rather than pure fundamental demand. As this squeeze dissipates, prices will revert. SHORT (or AVOID) Precious Metals in the immediate term. A sudden geopolitical escalation or rapid currency debasement could reignite the squeeze.	2:13
BTC	WATCH	Zach Pandl Grayscale	Bitcoin is trading in lockstep with "Frontier Technology" (Quantum, Software) and falling as they de-risk, challenging the "Digital Gold" narrative. Zack also notes that if the cycle is driven by utility (Stablecoins/Tokenization), Bitcoin might "lag" assets like ETH/SOL. Bitcoin is currently behaving as a high-beta tech stock. Until it decouples and proves its value as a non-sovereign store of value distinct from tech equities, it remains vulnerable to AI/Tech sector volatility. WATCH. Wait for signs of decoupling from the Nasdaq/Tech sector before treating it as a safe haven. If the "Digital Gold" narrative re-emerges quickly due to sovereign debt fears, BTC could outperform unexpectedly.	0:02
QUANTUM COMPUTING SECTOR /SOFTWARE SECTOR	WATCH	Zach Pandl Grayscale	"The price of Bitcoin... went up with other frontier technology assets and it went down with those types of assets... quantum computing stocks... software companies." The market is currently in a "shoot first" mode regarding AI disruption, selling off all adjacent tech. The opportunity lies in identifying which of these are actually complementary to AI rather than disrupted, but the immediate trend is negative correlation. WATCH for the "Differentiation Trade" to emerge where quality tech separates from disrupted tech. Broad market liquidity crunch could drag all sectors down regardless of fundamentals.	3:02