수위가 달라진 트럼프의 SNS…미국-이란 협상 파란불? | 박현도 서강대 유로메나연구소 교수 [글로벌 인터뷰]

Summary

Professor Park Hyun-do analyzes the shifting dynamics of US-Iran negotiations, noting that Trump's recent Twitter posts have become much softer, removing prior threats and signaling a potential deal. He discusses Iran's internal power structure, the role of Pakistan as a mediator, and risks from Israeli actions in Lebanon. The geopolitical outlook is cautiously optimistic but hinges on the next 48 hours.

• Trump's SNS tone on Iran shifted dramatically, no longer demanding uranium removal or threatening strikes.
• Iran's leadership is unified under four Revolutionary Guard veterans, reducing internal splits.
• Pakistan is actively mediating and has signed defense pacts with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
• Kuwait declared force majeure due to the Hormuz blockade, highlighting economic strain.
• Israel continues operations in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, risking broader escalation.
• Iran's frozen overseas assets (over $20bn) could be partially unfrozen as part of a deal.
• The next 48 hours are critical for whether a negotiating team actually travels to Pakistan.
• Professor Park expresses cautious optimism that a deal will be reached, contingent on Trump not issuing new aggressive posts.