Halftime Investment Committee debates how far the equity rally can run

Speakers

Joe Terranova — Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners

Bryn Talkington — Managing Partner, Requisite Capital Management

Steve Weiss — Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners

Scott Wapner — Host

Summary

The committee discusses a market rebound following a "cascading liquidation" event, noting that fundamentals remain robust with strong revenue and earnings growth in the 60% of the S&P 500 that have reported.
Ed Yardeni’s bullish prediction of "Dow 70k by 2029" is debated; the panel agrees that the "delivery side" (Transports) and "production side" (Industrials) of the economy are confirming a growth story.
A key theme is the rotation from "Cap Lite" tech stocks (high margin, low debt) to a "Cap Heavy" phase where companies like Microsoft and Amazon are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, prompting a re-evaluation of their margins.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
RSP	LONG	Bryn Talkington Managing Partner, Requisite Capital Management	"Let it run." The speaker advises holding or buying this ETF as the market broadens out. Unlike the market-cap weighted S&P 500, RSP is equal weight. Crucially, its largest sector weighting is Industrials (>16%). Industrials are currently benefiting from the economic expansion and the physical infrastructure side of the AI trade. SanDisk is currently the top holding (50bps). If the "broadening out" trade fails and capital rushes back exclusively to mega-cap tech.	1:53
GEV /CAT	LONG	Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners	The speaker owns both GE Vernova and Caterpillar but admits they are "overvalued here." These stocks are driven by the AI infrastructure and power narrative. Momentum is strong, but the fundamentals are becoming "hard to justify" at these price levels. He is holding them because the trend is intact, not because they are cheap. N/A Valuation compression; if the market stops paying a premium for AI-adjacent industrials, these could correct sharply.	4:57
META	LONG	Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners	Weiss calls this a "great valuation." In a market where many AI-related stocks are becoming expensive, the speaker identifies Meta as one of the few remaining names with a valuation that makes fundamental sense relative to its growth. N/A General tech sector volatility.	4:50
MSFT	WATCH	Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners	Discusses a downgrade from Melius (Buy to Hold, target cut to $430) because "Satya lost the AI narrative." The stock is undergoing a "valuation paradigm" shift. Investors are concerned that growth has slowed dramatically while capital expenditures (spending on equipment/AI) are rising, which could hurt profit margins. Downgraded by analysts at Melius. Continued narrative shift that Microsoft is falling behind in the AI race it started.	1:22
TSM	LONG	Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners	The speaker owns Taiwan Semi and believes he can "justify" the valuation. Despite trading at multiples far above its historical average, TSM is the critical supplier for the AI boom. Unlike other industrials where the price feels disconnected from reality, TSM's earnings power supports the higher price tag. N/A Geopolitical risks and semiconductor cycle downturns.	5:02
AMZN	LONG	Steve Weiss Chief Investment Officer, Short Hills Capital Partners	Weiss explicitly stated, "I added to the position this morning." While competitors like Microsoft are facing narrative challenges regarding AI dominance, Weiss believes Amazon is not suffering the same damage. He views the current dip as a buying opportunity rather than a structural failure. N/A Potential for increased Capex spending to compress margins, similar to other big tech peers.	6:17