| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
Burgum announces the creation of a "Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve" for 60 elements, funded by private sector capital but backed by government "price floors" to block China from "illegal dumping to kill the price." The primary risk for Western miners has been China crashing spot prices to bankrupt competitors. A US-guaranteed price floor effectively creates a "government put option" on production, de-risking capital expenditure for domestic miners of Rare Earths (MP), Copper (FCX/SCCO), and Lithium. LONG. The removal of downside price risk via government policy is a massive structural catalyst for US/Allied miners. Implementation delays or legislative hurdles in funding the reserve. | — | |
| LONG |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
Burgum states "Coal was the hero" during recent storms and explicitly mentions the "reversal of the endangerment finding," calling EPA regulations a "massive overreach." The "Endangerment Finding" is the legal bedrock for EPA CO2 regulations. Reversing it or rolling back these rules halts the forced retirement of coal plants. If plants stay open longer to provide baseload power for AI/Data Centers, the terminal value of US coal producers (Peabody, Arch, Consol) re-rates significantly higher. LONG. The sector is priced for liquidation; policy shifts it to "cash cow" status. Utilities may still retire plants due to ESG mandates or cheaper natural gas, regardless of federal permission to keep them open. | — | |
| SHORT |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
Burgum cites a classified report stating offshore wind causes "radar interference above the water and sonar interference below," labeling it a "National Security risk" and confirming the administration will appeal court rulings to reinstate stop-work orders. While economic arguments (subsidies) can be debated, a "National Security" designation is a regulatory kill-switch that is difficult to fight in court. If the DoD opposes offshore wind, permits will be revoked or denied, stranding billions in capex for developers. SHORT / AVOID. The sector faces not just subsidy removal, but an existential permitting ban. Courts may rule against the administration's national security claims; state-level mandates could sustain some projects. | — | |
| LONG |
Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior |
Burgum argues the US is in an "AI arms race with China" and needs "Energy Addition," criticizing the shutdown of "baseload" in favor of "intermittent" sources. AI data centers require 24/7 uptime (baseload). The administration's policy explicitly favors keeping existing thermal and nuclear plants online to feed this demand. Utilities with existing baseload capacity (Vistra, Constellation) become critical infrastructure assets with pricing power. LONG. Demand (AI) is rising while the administration prevents the supply (Baseload plants) from shrinking. Lower natural gas prices could compress margins for merchant power producers. | — |