Experts break down the December retail sales data
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 10, 2026 at 15:58 UTC  |  5:16  |  CNBC
Speakers
Sylvia Jablonski — Chief Investment Officer, Defiance ETFs
Komal Sri-Kumar — President, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies

Summary

  • December retail sales data showed "no change," which experts attribute to early holiday spending in November (which was up 0.6%) rather than consumer weakness.
  • Sylvia Jablonski argues the market is in a "Goldilocks" era—inflation is cooling enough to allow Fed rate cuts, but the economy isn't collapsing—which supports a rebound in AI stocks.
  • Komal Sri-Kumar offers a contrarian warning: he expects a sharp spike in January inflation and compares the current AI hype to the 1999 dot-com bubble, predicting that future Fed policy (under potential Chair Kevin Warsh) could lead to a liquidity crisis or market crash.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
AI SOFTWARE /EQUITIES
LONG Sylvia Jablonski
Chief Investment Officer, Defiance ETFs 		The speaker notes a recent "big pullback" in the AI software story but believes the current economic data supports a recovery. The economy is in a "Goldilocks" zone. Retail sales were cooler than expected but not disastrous ("not so bad that it mandates an emergency"). This allows the Fed to stay on track for two priced-in rate cuts. Lower rates and a stable economy generally favor high-growth tech stocks. December retail sales were flat, but November was strong. Jobs data needs to show stability; further softening in JOLTS or employment numbers could spook the market. 0:37
US INFLATION
WATCH Komal Sri-Kumar
President, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies 		Despite recent data appearing light, the speaker predicts January will show a significant "pickup" in inflation. Historical seasonality. The speaker argues that seasonal adjustment factors are imperfect and that January consistently appears as a "big inflation month" compared to November and December. Historical trends of January data versus year-end data. If inflation remains low, this thesis is invalidated. —
BROAD MARKET
AVOID Komal Sri-Kumar
President, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies 		The speaker draws a direct parallel between the current AI narrative and the 1999 dot-com era, warning that the "productivity boom" promise may fail to squash inflation. If a new Fed Chair (specifically mentioning Kevin Warsh) assumes AI will lower inflation via productivity (like Greenspan in the 90s) and refuses to raise rates, inflation will run hot. Eventually, the Fed will be forced to either hike rates or shrink the balance sheet. Historical precedents—the 2000 stock market crash, the 2001 recession, the September 2019 cash shortage, and the March 2023 regional banking crisis. The speaker warns this policy path leads to a "cash shortage problem" or a crash, forcing the Fed to eventually reverse course back to Quantitative Easing (QE). —