Goldman Hikes Oil Forecasts Again as Hormuz Shock Builds
Speakers
Daan Struyven
— Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs
Summary
Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs discusses the oil outlook amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. He upgrades Brent to $90/barrel by Q4, citing slower recovery of Gulf production. He also outlines a severely adverse scenario of $120/barrel if disruptions persist. Demand destruction is observed in jet fuel and petrochemicals, and the base case does not include a global recession.
- Goldman Sachs upgrades Brent to $90/barrel by Q4.
- Supply disruption from Strait of Hormuz is expected to persist.
- Gulf oil production recovery may only reach 90% by December.
- Demand destruction is occurring especially in jet fuel and petrochemicals.
- A severely adverse scenario could push Brent to $120/barrel.
- The base case does not assume a global recession.
- U.S. is exporting at full capacity, narrowing global price gaps.
- The conflict may set a precedent for future management of waterways.
Trade Ideas
Brent to $90 by Q4 due to Hormuz disruption
Brent crude will reach $90 per barrel by Q4, driven by prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and slower recovery of Persian Gulf production. The speaker assumes normalization in Gulf exports by end of June (vs prior mid-May) and forecasts that even by December only 90% of lost supply will return. Demand destruction is already occurring but is incorporated into the forecast.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 28, 2026, features Daan Struyven discussing BNO. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Daan Struyven · Tickers: BNO