Fed in 'neutral' as consumers are feeling okay but not great: The Conference Board CEO Steve Odland

Summary

Steve Odland, CEO of The Conference Board, discusses the consumer confidence index rising slightly in April despite inflation and oil price concerns. He highlights that consumers are feeling okay but not great, with job stability as the key driver. CEO confidence remains neutral as business leaders are uncertain about input costs, borrowing rates, and potential tariffs. The Fed is expected to stay on hold through the year.

• Consumer confidence edged up to 92.8 in April, driven by stable job perceptions.
• Consumers worry about food and gas prices but job security keeps spending steady.
• The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025.
• CEO confidence is neutral around 50, with firms avoiding layoffs and new hires.
• The Strait of Hormuz reopening is critical to normalize oil shipping, but will take months.
• Oil and gasoline price impacts on consumer confidence appear less significant than expected.
• High consumer debt levels help sustain spending but also pose risk.
• Businesses are hesitant to invest due to uncertainty over costs and trade policy.