Bitcoin’s Strongest Bullish Setup Yet… But Why a Crash Could Still Come w/ Michael Nadeau
Speakers
Michael Nadeau
— Senior Analyst, ETF.com
Summary
Michael Nadeau analyzes Bitcoin's prolonged $60K–$76K range, presenting both bull and bear cases. He leans bearish, citing incomplete cycle capitulation, peaking global liquidity, and insufficient turnover of weak hands. While acknowledging positive structural developments like MicroStrategy buying and ETF resilience, he expects further downside before a durable bottom.
- Bitcoin has traded in a 62–76K range for over 70 days.
- Michael Nadeau outlines key bull arguments: market looked through war, fair value hit, MicroStrategy buying, resilient ETFs.
- He presents a bear case: on-chain KPIs not fully hit, market structure not turned over, global liquidity peaked.
- Nadeau believes the probability still points to further weakness.
- He views MicroStrategy's STR C and ETF AUM as long-term positives but not short-term market changers.
- The discussion highlights the battle between bulls expecting a breakout and bears warning of a final crash.
Trade Ideas
Bitcoin likely to see further weakness
Michael Nadeau is bearish on Bitcoin in the near term, expecting further weakness because key on-chain cycle indicators (realized price, 200-week moving average, percentage of network in profit) have not been hit during the recent drawdown, market structure has not fully turned over from weak to strong hands, global liquidity has already peaked, and the fiscal impulse is rolling over. He believes the current grind-up is causing late bears to capitulate and chase, which sets up for another leg down.
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This Milk Road Macro video, published April 26, 2026, features Michael Nadeau discussing BTC. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Nadeau · Tickers: BTC