US House Votes to End Trump's Canada Tariffs

Speakers

Laura Davison — Washington Bureau Chief

Summary

The Republican-led House voted to end Trump's tariffs on Canada, signaling a fracture in the party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections due to voter anxiety over cost of living.
The legislation is largely symbolic as President Trump has threatened a veto, and a two-thirds majority override is highly unlikely.
A major risk looms as Trump considers withdrawing entirely from the USMCA trade deal, which would disrupt global trading patterns and eliminate established "rules of the road" for North American trade.
A Supreme Court case regarding presidential tariff authority is pending, with a decision expected potentially later this month.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
EWC /FXC	SHORT	Laura Davison Washington Bureau Chief	Trump is "very unlikely to sign this legislation" and is reportedly thinking about "pulling out of this deal [USMCA] entirely." While the House vote suggests relief, the reality is a likely veto and an escalation of trade tensions. The threat of total USMCA withdrawal is an existential economic threat to Canada, which relies heavily on US exports. This uncertainty creates significant downside pressure on Canadian equities (EWC) and the Canadian Dollar (FXC). Short Canadian exposure until the USMCA/Tariff threat is resolved. Trump unexpectedly signs the bill or the Supreme Court strips his tariff authority.	—
GM /F	AVOID	Laura Davison Washington Bureau Chief	A USMCA withdrawal "would really eliminate all the rules of the road of trade in North America and could be a huge upset due to global trading patterns." The automotive sector has the most deeply integrated cross-border supply chains between the US, Canada, and Mexico. Uncertainty regarding the USMCA or persistent tariffs disrupts logistics and raises input costs for legacy automakers, squeezing margins. Avoid North American automakers heavily reliant on cross-border manufacturing. Tariffs are removed, leading to a relief rally in industrial supply chains.	—
SPY /VOO	WATCH	Laura Davison Washington Bureau Chief	"This leaves everything really in a really precarious position... growing rift within the Republican Party." The combination of a fracturing ruling party (GOP infighting), looming trade wars (Canada, Mexico, Brazil), and a pending Supreme Court case creates a high-uncertainty macro environment. Political instability and trade barriers are generally negative for broad market valuations. Watch for volatility spikes; the "cost of living" anxiety mentioned suggests consumer weakness may already be impacting earnings. The political posturing resolves quickly, or the Supreme Court limits executive trade power, stabilizing the market.	—