Yared Praises 'Blowout' Jobs Report, Says Fed Has to Balance Mandate

Speakers

Pierre Yared — Economist / Columbia Business School Professor

Summary

The January jobs report was a "blowout," adding 170k private sector jobs (double expectations) despite forecasts of weakness.
Unemployment sits at 4.3%, but the labor market is heavily skewed: 95% of job gains came from Healthcare and Social Assistance.
Yared argues the U.S. is entering a 1990s-style "disinflationary growth" cycle driven by AI and deregulation, meaning the Fed should focus on future productivity gains rather than past inflation data.
Federal government employment has hit its lowest level since 1966, reflecting a structural shift ("rightsizing") of labor from public to private sectors.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
CAT /NUE /X	LONG	Pierre Yared Economist / Columbia Business School Professor	Yared highlights "significant increases in construction... especially non-residential" and explicitly links this to the "president's economic policies... to drive investment and factories." The administration's supply-side policies are forcing a CapEx cycle focused on physical infrastructure and domestic manufacturing plants. This creates sustained demand for heavy machinery (CAT) and domestic steel (NUE, X) regardless of broader consumer sentiment. LONG. These are the "pick and shovel" plays for the factory construction boom Yared describes. High interest rates could eventually choke off financing for these capital-intensive projects.	—
HCA /CVS	LONG	Pierre Yared Economist / Columbia Business School Professor	"82,000 jobs from health care... That's 95% of the jobs that were added... It's a trend that we've continued to see because of demographic changes." The host questions the quality of this growth, but Yared defends it as structurally necessary due to an "aging society." If 95% of labor demand is in this sector, it indicates where revenue and utilization are actually expanding in a slowing economy. LONG. Healthcare providers and services are the only sector showing recession-proof volume growth in this data set. Regulatory changes or reimbursement rate cuts could impact profitability despite high volume.	—
NVDA /MSFT /GOOGL	LONG	Pierre Yared Economist / Columbia Business School Professor	Yared cites a "big explosion in AI" and "significant productivity growth" that is "reminiscent of the nineties." He argues this productivity boom allows for "disinflationary growth"—meaning the economy can run hot (strong jobs) without causing inflation (prices). This gives the Fed cover to avoid hiking rates, which is the "Goldilocks" scenario for high-growth tech and AI infrastructure. LONG. The macro backdrop of high growth + falling inflation is the ideal environment for the AI trade to continue. If inflation proves sticky (as the host worries), the Fed may be forced to keep rates high, compressing tech valuations.	—