| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVOID | — | "I got blackpilled... there's absolutely zero reason that crypto would just win this by default... Roblox to crypto looks very similar to Twitter and YouTube to Farcaster and Rumble." The "Metaverse" thesis relies on network effects. Roblox has 111M DAUs; crypto metaverses have negligible activity. The speaker argues that users do not care about decentralization; they care about where their friends are. If the "next generation" is already financially indoctrinated into Roblox's centralized walled garden, the thesis for "Open Metaverse" tokens collapses due to lack of user migration. AVOID (or SHORT if active trader). The incumbent has already won the war for attention. A sudden shift in Roblox policy that alienates creators, causing a mass exodus to Web3 platforms. | — | |
| WATCH | — | "Alex is a Teal Fellowship recipient who founded Voldex... backed by A16Z... GameFam is another VC backed studio... raised a $25 million series A." Smart money (Thiel/A16Z) is moving downstream. They are not just buying RBLX stock; they are capitalizing the *production layer* on top of it. This signals a maturing ecosystem where "games" become "companies." While these are private, this trend suggests potential M&A targets for larger public media companies (Disney, Warner Bros) looking to buy established Roblox presence rather than build it. WATCH. Monitor for public media companies acquiring Roblox studios, which would validate the ecosystem further. Platform risk—if Roblox changes the algorithm or payout structure, these studios' valuations collapse. | — | |
| LONG | — | "2025 Q2 is 111 million daily active users... Roblox acts as the Fed of the Metaverse... Roblox takes a tax on transaction fees... The developer receives $16 [on a $100 purchase]." Roblox has achieved sovereign economic status. They have successfully externalized the cost of content creation (UGC) while retaining ~84% of the revenue through "exchange rate" arbitrage (selling Robux high, buying them back from devs low). With AI ("vibe coding") lowering the barrier to entry, the volume of content—and thus the probability of viral, revenue-generating hits—will explode, all while Roblox incurs zero production risk. LONG. The unit economics are predatory but exceptionally bullish for shareholders. Regulatory scrutiny over child labor/exploitation or changes to the "take rate" due to developer revolt. | 15:40 |