Ven Ram

Short US Treasuries on hawkish Fed.

Nasdaq 100 to 30,000 if ceasefire holds

Speaker states gold's "fair value" against inflation, dollar valuation, and central bank purchases is $2900/oz, and it is currently at $4500/oz, implying it is overvalued. However, he also says "gold probably has a leg higher" from current levels due to the inflationary war shock. The war is creating an inflationary shock. Gold is a traditional inflation hedge, so despite being above its modeled fair value, the macro environment could push it higher in the near term. LONG on a tactical basis due to the prevailing inflationary conflict dynamics, despite structural overvaluation concerns. The market begins to "cut short your winners," a behavior noted during the war, leading to profit-taking that caps momentum.

Gold is up nearly 1% on trade uncertainty and the threat of a US military strike on Iran. Gold is benefiting from a dual tailwind: 1) Haven demand due to Middle East war risk, and 2) A weakening US Dollar caused by the Supreme Court limiting Trump's economic leverage. Momentum is strong (up 6% in 4 sessions). LONG Gold as a hedge against geopolitical escalation and dollar debasement. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough in Geneva talks or a de-escalation in rhetoric.

The US trade deficit has ballooned to 1960s levels despite tariffs, while the Eurozone current account surplus widened significantly in December. The Supreme Court ruling signals that Trump's ability to unilaterally weaponize the dollar/trade policy is limited. Combined with fundamental flow data (money flowing into EU via surplus), the structural backdrop favors the Euro over the Dollar. LONG Euro (FXE) / SHORT US Dollar (UUP). ECB dovishness or a resurgence of EU-specific political instability.