U

u/Minute_Lake4945

5.0 ★★★★★ Posted today
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since May 2026
Ideas 4
Long / short 4 L/0 S
Win rate -
Tracked posts 1 1.00/day
Avg return -
Long return -
Short return -
New ideas 4 last 30d
Most mentioned
Best trades
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Worst trades
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Pick return distribution

Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-

Average returns

first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
30 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
90 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
Closed-window returns from the first opened position per ticker/side. 90d = picks opened 90+ days ago
Result
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
AI/Semi
$612.01
-
META maintains >20% ROIC while spending heavily on AI/data center CapEx. Market fear over spending creates potential mispricing; high ROIC signals efficient capital deployment. Long META as CapEx yields future earnings growth, supported by strong historical returns. AI monetization delays, regulatory crackdown (EU/US), or ad revenue slowdown.
May 06
Long
AI/Semi
$397.47
-
GOOGL spends heavily on cloud/AI infrastructure yet ROIC stays above 20%. High ROIC signals competitive moat; market undervalues long-term returns from AI CapEx. Long GOOGL as capex-led growth is underpriced relative to historical capital efficiency. Antitrust actions, search share loss to AI competitors, cloud margin compression.
May 06
Long
AI/Semi
$413.60
-
MSFT drives massive CapEx for Azure/AI while ROIC remains >20%. Market fixates on short-term spending, ignoring recurring revenue and high returns on investment. Long MSFT as CapEx fuels durable growth, with ROIC confirming capital discipline. AI regulation, cloud competition from AWS/GCP, enterprise spending slowdown.
May 06
Long
Consumer
$274.78
-
AMZN invests heavily in logistics and AWS/AI yet maintains >20% ROIC. Market worries about margin pressure; high ROIC disproves inefficiency and supports value. Long AMZN as CapEx is competitively necessary and historically rewarded, with ROIC validating the spend. Retail margin compression, AWS growth deceleration, regulatory break-up risk.
May 06
Showing 4 of 4 picks ยท sorted by mentions