U

u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595

5.0 ★★★★★
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since May 2026
Ideas 3
Long / short 3 L/0 S
Win rate -
Tracked posts 1 0.33/day
Avg return -
Long return -
Short return -
New ideas 3 last 30d
Most mentioned
Best trades
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Worst trades
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Pick return distribution

Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-

Average returns

first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
30 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
90 days 0 eval.
-
L - S -
Win rate -
Closed-window returns from the first opened position per ticker/side. 90d = picks opened 90+ days ago
Result
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
AI/Semi
$171.80
-
Author explicitly names SAP as a top pick among sticky legacy SaaS companies that are hard to replace. Enterprises rely on SAP for core ERP, creating high switching costs; the author believes this defensiveness is mispriced. Long SAP as a value play in enterprise software with durable competitive advantages. Economic slowdown could delay enterprise IT spending; cloud migration competition from Oracle/Workday.
May 04
Long
Fintech
$407.24
-
Author includes INTU alongside SAP as a top contender for sticky SaaS value. Intuit’s tax/financial software (TurboTax, QuickBooks) is deeply embedded in small businesses and consumers, creating recurring revenue and low churn. Long INTU as a predictable, high‑margin SaaS company with defensive moats. Regulatory changes in tax software; competition from new fintech entrants; slower adoption of AI features.
May 04
Long
AI/Semi
$413.12
-
Author already owns 100 MSFT shares (cost ~$400) and explicitly states wanting to add more as part of the SaaS rotation. Microsoft’s Azure, Office 365, and enterprise software stack (Teams, Dynamics) are deeply embedded in corporate IT, with AI tailwinds (Copilot) driving future revenue. Strong conviction to increase MSFT allocation, seeing it as a core sticky legacy SaaS with growth optionality. Antitrust scrutiny, cloud competition from AWS/GCP, potential AI monetization disappointments.
May 04
Showing 3 of 3 picks · sorted by mentions