Author cites CPRT as a renowned compounder but needs more reassurance on domestic US growth before buying. The implied caution suggests they see potential value only after further price weakness or clearer growth signals. A low-conviction watch/long; entry only if domestic growth narrative strengthens or price drops. Slower US volume trends, auction pricing pressure, or macro headwinds could delay recovery.
Author calls CPKC "very disciplined and effective" despite rail headwinds, implying operational strength. The favorable view suggests any further macro weakness could create a buying opportunity for a well-run railroad. Moderate-conviction long-term watch; entry likely on industry-wide dips. Trade disruptions, regulatory issues, or volume declines could hurt earnings.
Assa Abloy "delivering quarter after quarter" and price is near target of 325-330 SEK (currently 350 SEK). A ~6% further decline would hit target, making it an attractive entry for a consistent compounder. Highest-conviction idea in the post; near target, fundamental quality high. Currency (SEK/USD), slowing European construction, or margin compression.
Author notes SAP is a major EU business operations player and price is "getting really attractive," nearly in value territory. This implies SAP offers a rare entry point for a dominant enterprise software firm at a reasonable valuation. Strongest near-term actionable idea; could be opened today with a long-term view. Cloud transition costs, competitive pressure (e.g., Workday, Oracle), EU economic slowdown.